Why Did Trump Pull Out Of The Iran Nuclear Deal

A Worthless Withdrawal: Two Years Since President Trump Abandoned The Jcpoa

May 8 marked two years since President Trump formally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action , better known as the Iran nuclear deal, while maintaining that t is the policy of the United States that Iran be denied a nuclear weapon and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Since then, the Trump Administration unilaterally re-imposed crippling sanctions on Iran and antagonized our allies by forcing them to comply or risk financial isolation. They have also wasted valuable time trying to disassemble the Iran nuclear deal rather than pursuing negotiations to address its concerns. Now, the United States is scrambling to respond to the impending end of a United Nations arms embargo linked to the nuclear deal.

In retaliation for the Trump Administrations decision to leave the JCPOA, Iran incrementally stepped back from compliance with the deal one year later beginning in May 2019 and our allies have resisted calls to punish Iran over its legitimate grievances. Irans proximity to a nuclear weapon capability has gradually increased due to the Trump Administrations policies, and Iran is now roughly six months away from having enough weapons-grade fissile material for a nuclear bomb. When President Trump took office, Iran was about a year from that milestone. As a whole, the Trump Administrations withdrawal from the JCPOA and maximum pressure strategy has gotten the United States no closer to its stated goals.

What Is The Iran Nuclear Deal

The deal was an agreement between the Islamic Republic and a group of world powers aimed at scrapping the Middle Eastern country’s nuclear weapons programme.

It saw Iran agree to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium by 98 per cent.

According to the deal, Iran would receive relief from the US, European Union, and the United Nations Security Council on all nuclear-related economic sanctions.

The agreement was reached on July 14, 2015, and the world powers signed it in Vienna.

However, on May 8, 2018, President Trump announced the US will withdraw from the agreement – which he has repeatedly called “insane” and ridiculous”.

America’s withdrawal from the agreement mean crippling economic sanctions will once again be placed on Iran – further heightening tensions between the two countries.

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New Faces In The Room

Mr Trump had made motions toward, and then backed away from, formally pulling out of the Iran deal several times over the first year of his presidency.

He was reportedly counselled against abandoning the agreement by senior advisers in his administration, including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, National Security Advisor HR McMaster and Secretary of Defence James Mattis.

Mr Mattis is the only man left standing, and his influence appears to be waning. The other two have been replaced by Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, respectively, and both are considered Iran hawks.

Where once the president may have been counselled to be cautious in abandoning US commitments to Iran, this time his instincts – an innate distrust of multilateralism in general and Iran in particular – appear to have been enthusiastically supported.

After 15 months Mr Trump has built a foreign policy team that is largely on the same page – his page.

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What Did The Other Signatories Agree To

Sanctions relief. The EU, United Nations, and United States all committed to lifting their nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. However, many other U.S. sanctions on Iran, some dating back to the 1979 hostage crisis, remained in effect. They cover matters such as Irans ballistic missile program, support for terrorist groups, and human rights abuses. Though the United States committed to lifting its sanctions on oil exports, it keptrestrictions on financial transactions, which have deterred international trade with Iran.

Weapons embargo. The parties agreed to lift an existing UN ban on Irans transfer of conventional weapons and ballistic missiles after five years if the IAEA certifies that Iran is only engaged in civilian nuclear activity.

Iran Effectively Abandoned The The Nuclear Deal Amid Fears Of War With The Us In Early 2020

After Trump in January 2020 ordered a drone strike that killed Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani, Tehran effectively abandoned the JCPOA altogether.

For roughly a year after Trump’s controversial announcement, Iran remained in compliance with the deal. But the Iranian government began taking steps away from the JCPOA in the summer of 2019.

Wendy Sherman, who served as the Obama administration’s lead negotiator on the JCPOA and has been nominated by Biden to serve as deputy to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in September 2019 told Insider that Iran’s violations of the pact were of “serious concern.”

“It’s all concerning, because it’s moving away from a framework that ensured Iran would not get a nuclear weapon,” Sherman said. “Iran is not just being emboldened but is being left in some ways to take actions that say they will not be pushed back. We are at a very, very difficult place.”

Iran has gradually taken more steps in violation of the pact over the past year or so, as part of an effort to increase pressure on European leaders fighting to save the deal.

Iranian authorities in early April said that Iran had produced 55 kg of uranium enriched up to 20% well above the limits under the 2015 deal and closer to weapons-grade levels .

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Rouhani: This Is A Psychological War

Irans president, Hassan Rouhani, speaking shortly after Donald Trumps decision to pull the US out of the landmark nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions at its highest level, said he believed the agreement could still survive if other negotiating partners defied Trump.

But the Iranian president warned that he has instructed the countrys atomic energy agency to prepare to restart enrichment of uranium at an industrial level in a few weeks time should the deal collapses completely.

This is a psychological war, we wont allow Trump to win… Im happy that the pesky being has left the Barjam, he said referring to Persian acronym for JCPOA or the nuclear deal.

Tonight we witnessed a new historic experience… for 40 years weve said and repeated that Iran always abides by its commitments, and the US never complies, our 40-year history shows us Americans have been aggressive towards great people of Iran and our region .. from the coup against the legitimate government of Mosaddegh Mosadeq government and their meddling in the affairs of the last regime, support for Saddam and downing or our passenger plane by a US vessel and their actions in Afghanistan, in Yemen, he said.

What Americans announced today was a clear demonstration of what they have been doing for months. Since the nuclear deal, when did they comply? They only left a signature and made some statements, but did nothing that would benefit the people of Iran.

What Were The Goals

The P5+1 wanted to unwind Irans nuclear program to the point that if Tehran decided to pursue a nuclear weapon, it would takeat least one year, giving world powers time to respond. Heading into the JCPOA negotiations, U.S. intelligence officials estimated that, in the absence of an agreement, Iran could produce enough nuclear material for a weapon in a few months. Negotiating nations feared that Irans moves to become a nuclear weapons state risked thrusting the region into a new crisis. Israel had taken preemptive military action against suspected nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria and could do the same against Iran, perhaps triggering reprisals by Lebanon-based Hezbollah or disruptions to the transport of oil in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has since signaled a willingness to obtain a nuclear weapon if Iran successfully detonates one.

Iran had previously agreed to forgo the development of nuclear weapons as a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which has been in force since 1970. However, after the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, Iranian leaders secretly pursued this technology.

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Prior to the JCPOA, the P5+1 had been negotiating with Iran for years, offering its government various incentives to halt uranium enrichment. After the 2013 election of President Hassan Rouhani, who was viewed as a reformer, the parties came to a preliminary agreement to guide negotiations for a comprehensive deal.

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Why Did Trump Pull Out Of The Iran Deal

• President Trump said Iran was violating the spirit of the deal, arguing that Iran was not an ally and that it was working against US interests in the Middle East.
• The Iranian regime supports terrorism and exports violence, bloodshed and chaos across the Middle East. That is why we must put an end to Irans continued aggression and nuclear ambitions. They have not lived up to the spirit of their agreement, he said in October 2017.

• The US president also doesnt want the restrictions set out in the deal such as the one on uranium enrichment and the use of centrifuges to have end dates.
• Trump did hold out the possibility of negotiating a new agreement with Iran.

• I have outlined two possible paths forward either fix the deals disastrous flaws, or the United States will withdraw, Trump said in January. He proposed new restrictions on Irans ballistic missile programme, more intrusive inspections of its nuclear programme and removing time limits on uranium enrichment and centrifuge restrictions.

The Controversy Surrounding The Iran Deal Explained

Iran and the US have been enemies for decades. The two countries have an extremely complex history that involved a CIA-orchestrated coup in the 1950s, a pro-American puppet monarch who was overthrown in 1979 via the Islamic revolution, and the infamous hostage crisis at the US embassy in Tehran that followed the uprising.

The constant threats from Iranian leaders against Israel, America’s top ally in the Middle East, and chants of “death to America” in Iranian streets have also not helped matters.

In this context, there is a massive distrust for Iran in the US , and Washington has long feared what might happen if the Iranian regime developed a nuclear weapon. Iran made great strides in this regard by the 2010s, hence the Obama administration’s efforts to orchestrate the nuclear deal. When the pact was finally settled in 2015, it was widely celebrated as a major diplomatic achievement.

But many leaders in Washington still felt the Iran nuclear deal didn’t go far enough to limit the country’s ability to develop nuclear weapons.

This is because the Iran deal contains sunset clauses, or parts of the agreement that will ultimately expire. Under the deal, the restrictions on Iran’s centrifuges go away after 10 years and the limitations on uranium enrichment disappear five years after that . Hence, some feared that once these restrictions expire, Iran could rapidly develop a nuclear weapon.

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Does It Prevent Iran From Getting Nuclear Weapons

Many experts say that if all parties adhered to their pledges, the deal almost certainly could have achieved that goal for longer than a decade. Many of the JCPOAs restrictions on Irans nuclear program have expiration dates. For example, after ten years , centrifuge restrictions will be lifted, and after fifteen years, so too will limits on the amount of low-enriched uranium Iran can possess. Some of the deals opponents faulted these so-called sunset provisions, saying they would only delay Iran building a bomb while sanctions relief would allow it to underwrite terrorism in the region.

How Is The Iran Deal Enforced

If any signatory suspects Iran is violating the deal, the UN Security Council may vote on whether to continue sanctions relief. This snapback mechanism remains in effect for ten years, after which the UN sanctions are set to be permanently removed.

In April 2020, the United States announced its intention to snap back sanctions. The other P5 members objected to the move, saying the United States could not unilaterally implement the mechanism because it left the nuclear deal in 2018.

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Whats Happening To Irans Oil Industry

• Iran is the third-biggest exporter of crude oil within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

• During the last round of sanctions, Irans oil supplies fell by around one million barrels per day , but the country re-emerged as a major oil exporter after sanctions were lifted in January 2016.

• Since then, Iran has increased its production to 3.81 million bpd in March 2018, almost four percent of global output. Its crude exports averaged over two million bpd in January-March.

• When President Trump abandoned the deal, oil prices rose more than three percent on Wednesday, according to Reuters.

• Brent crude oil reached its highest point since November 2014 at $77.20 a barrel. The benchmark contract went up to $76.65, and US light crude was up by $1.70 a barrel, to $70.76.

• Iran is also a major supplier to refineries in Asia. In China, the biggest single buyer of Iranian oil, Shanghai crude futures hit their strongest in dollar terms since they were launched.

Two Years After Trump Withdrew From The Iran Nuclear Deal Tehran Has Cut In Half The Time It Would Need To Produce Enough Weapons

Colum LynchForeign Policy

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Two years after President Donald Trump announced the U.S withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran has resumed its enrichment of uranium, restarted research and development on advanced centrifuges, and expanded its stockpile of nuclear fuel, cutting in half the time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade fuel to build a nuclear bomb.

Iran is manifestly closer to being able to produce a nuclear weapon than they were two years ago, said Richard Nephew, who participated in negotiations on the landmark nuclear deal in 2015.

While there is no evidence Tehran is preparing a dash for a nuclear weapon, the Iranian advances raise questions about the success of the White Houses so-called maximum pressure campaign, which is aimed at forcing Iran through the imposition of ever more stringent sanctions to accept greater constraints on its political and military support for regional militias and the development of its ballistic missile program.

Two years after President Donald Trump announced the U.S withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran has resumed its enrichment of uranium, restarted research and development on advanced centrifuges, and expanded its stockpile of nuclear fuel, cutting in half the time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade fuel to build a nuclear bomb.

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Syria Downs Two Israeli Missiles Near Damascus

Syrian air defences downed two Israeli missiles near Damascus, state media reported, after explosions were heard at a military base south of the capital.

State news agency, SANA, cited a military source as saying: Syrian air defences fired at two Israeli missiles and destroyed them in Kisweh.

The Israeli Defense Forces said earlier on Tuesday evening that it had identified irregular activity of Iranian forces in Syria and had decided to unlock and ready bomb shelters in the north, where it shares a frontier with Syria.

Additionally, defence systems have been deployed and IDF troops are on high alert for an attack, it said in a statement. The IDF is prepared for various scenarios and warns that any aggression against Israel will be met with a severe response.

Israel has struck Iranian forces operating in Syria several times this year while Tehran has vowed to retaliate. Trumps decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement has put the region on edge.

Reuters news agency cited a commander loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as saying the Israeli strike on Tuesday evening caused no casualties. Israel did not immediately comment on the reported strike.

Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned: By withdrawing from the JCPOA, Trump hastens the possibility of three disparate but similarly cataclysmic events: an Iranian war, an Iranian bomb, or the implosion of the Iranian regime.

Understanding The Iran Deal: What Why And The Next Steps

A year after US pullout, Iran says it may lift cap on uranium enrichment if remaining powers do not abide by deal.

A year after US President Donald Trump announced his countrys pullout from the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran says it is no longer committed to parts of the agreement, signed with world powers.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday his country would resume high level enrichment of uranium if promises under the deal are not kept.

Rouhani said the remaining signatories the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China and Russia had 60 days to implement their promises to protect Irans oil and banking sectors from US sanctions.

Here is what we know:

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Why Trump Withdrew From The Iran Deal And What Could Happen Next

Whats weird about Trumps decision is that he presented no evidence that Iran wasnt complying with its obligations. Neither the president nor the foreign countries that support his decision, chiefly Israel and Saudi Arabia, have presented any evidence that Iran is technically in violation of the deal.

Instead, the presidents case revolved around perceived defects in the deal itself. The first one is that the deal isnt entirely permanent the restrictions on Irans nuclear program start to relax about 10 years after the deal was signed . The second is that the deal didnt cover other problematic things Iran was doing, including ballistic missile development and its support for violent militias around the Middle East .

French President Emmanuel Macron urged Trump to try to open up new negotiations on these issues while staying in the deal, thus keeping Irans nuclear program in check for now while dealing with these other issues. But Trump rejected that approach, preferring instead to withdraw from the deal entirely. Trump has said hes open to negotiating a newer, tougher deal, but theres little chance that Europe and Iran which spent years negotiating the current deal, and believe that its working would agree to do so.

Whether the logic was principally geopolitical or plain old political, the decision remains the same: America is out of the Iran deal. Now the question is what comes next.

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