Why Were The Polls Off Pollsters Have Some Early Theories
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A couple watches the election results at a Republican watch party at Huron Valley Guns in New Hudson, Mich. People watching the results come in saw President Trump outperforming his position in preelection polls.hide caption
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A couple watches the election results at a Republican watch party at Huron Valley Guns in New Hudson, Mich. People watching the results come in saw President Trump outperforming his position in preelection polls.
At some point on election night 2020, as CNN’s “KEY RACE ALERTS” rolled in and the map turned red and blue, things started to feel eerily like election night 2016.
Specifically, it was that déjà vu feeling of “Huh, maybe the polls were off.” It was a feeling that grew as states such as Iowa and Ohio swung even harder for President Trump than polls seemed to indicate, key counties were tighter than expected and Republicans picked up one toss-up House seat after another.
Yes, Joe Biden ended up winning, as forecasters predicted. But polls overestimated his support in multiple swing states not to mention the fact that Democrats both lost House seats and didn’t win the Senate outright, despite being favored to do the opposite.
It will likely be months until pollsters can study this year’s misses thoroughly . However, for now, pollsters have some educated guesses about what may have thrown polls off.
Forty Percent Of Young Americans Expect Their Lives To Be Better As A Result Of The Biden Administration; Many More Feel A Part Of Bidens America Than Trumps
By a margin of 2:1, young Americans expect their lives to become better under the Biden administration, rather than worse ; 25% tell us that they dont expect much of a difference. We found significant differences based on race and ethnicity.
- Whites: 30% better, 28% worse
- Blacks: 54% better, 4% worse
- Hispanics: 51% better, 10% worse
Forty-six percent of young Americans agreed that they feel included in Bidens America, 24% disagreed . With the exception of young people living in rural America, at least a plurality indicated they felt included. This stands in contrast to Trumps America. Forty-eight percent reported that they did not feel included in Trumps America, while 27% indicated that they felt included . The only major subgroup where a plurality or more felt included in Trumps America were rural Americans.;
- 39% of Whites feel included in Bidens America, 32% do not ; 35% of Whites feel included in Trumps America, 41% do not .
- 61% of Blacks feel included in Bidens America, 13% do not ; 16% of Blacks feel included in Trumps America, 60% do not .
- 51% of Hispanics feel included in Bidens America, 12% do not ; 17% of Hispanics feel included in Trumps America, 55% do not .
Do Californians Want To Remove Gavin Newsom From Office
An updating average of 2021 California gubernatorial recall election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency and sample size
A chart showing the polling averages since July 14 for whether to keep California Gov. Gavin Newsom in office or remove him, with dots representing each poll. Keep is polling at an average of 56.2 percent, and Remove is polling at an average of 41.6 percent.
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Can We Trust The Polls
It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.
Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.
Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.
But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.
Warning For Dems: Youth Vote As A Percentage Collapses
Particularly worrisome for Democrats is the absence of the youth voters as a percentage. Because voting is up 309% from this time in 2016, raw numbers show the youth vote up. In 2020, as a percentage of the electorate, 18-29 year olds cast only 5% of the total vote. In 2016, they were 17% of the electorate. This data suggests that young people are not showing up at the same rate.
As Democratic strategists pore over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lock-downs are suppressing the college vote. Many college social events are tied to campaign events for Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lock-downs.
Also, a general complacency within college-age Democrats of an inevitable Biden win has gripped campuses. As it turns out, many college outreach initiatives have been cancelled. Some of these events include virtual rallies, voting caravans and door-to-door canvassing. From our interview with a few organizers in the upper-Midwest, these cancellations are due to Bidens huge lead and concerns over social distancing. The result? College students have not turned out to vote, yet. Its not clear if they will turn out.
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Rep Spanberger Meets Afghan Refugees At Fort Pickett In Virginia
Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger toured Fort Pickett in Virginia on Thursday afternoon, meeting with some of the 5,000 Afghan refugees who are residing there after being evacuated.;
Spanberger is the first member of Congress to tour the facility, which is located in her district. There has been minimal access to the facility by the public.;
Spanberger’s office exclusively provided photos to NBC News of her tour.;
While visiting, Spanberger saw a food truck from the fried chicken chain Bojangles that was on site to serve refugees a taste of authentic American cooking.;
Gallup: Republicans More Popular Than Democrats Ahead Of Midterms
The poll found 45 percent of Americans view Republicans favorably — a 9-point increase from one year ago, when the GOP had a 36 percent favorable rating.
The Republicans haven’t been that popular since 2011, when the party reached 45 percent after several years well under the 40 percent mark.
President Donald Trump‘s party now has a 1-point lead over the Democrats, who have hovered around 44 and 45 percent since 2013, except for a brief dip in late 2014 when Republicans re-gained the majority in the House and Senate during that year’s midterms.
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New California Recall Poll Has Governor Newson Narrowly Ahead In Holding His Job
This is a slippage for the Democratic Governor if the polling is correct.
The undecided number is only 3%.
The latest Emerson College and Nexstar Medias Inside California Politics poll shows support for the effort to oust Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom has grown in recent weeks as the state has experienced an increase in COVID-19 transmission.
Opponents of the governor drew attention to his handling of the pandemic and collected enough signatures to secure a special election to recall Newsom on September 14.
The new poll results released on Tuesday found support for the recall at 46%, up from 43% in the previous poll from July 20, two weeks ago. However, 48% said they opposed the recall, and 6% of likely voters are undecided, pollsters found, adding that the number of undecided voters had fallen 3%.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Californians and was conducted from July 30 to August 1. It has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
Newsoms approval rating fell from 49% last month to 48% in the current poll. In addition, 42% said they disapproved of Newsoms job performance, while 10% were unsure or had no opinion.
The Institute Of Politics At Harvard University
A national poll of Americas 18-to-29 year olds released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School shows that despite the state of our politics, hope for America among young people is rising dramatically, especially among people of color. As more young Americans are likely to be politically engaged than they were a decade ago, they overwhelmingly approve of the job President Biden is doing, favor progressive policies, and have faith in their fellow Americans.
In the March 9-22 survey of 2,513 young Americans, the Harvard Youth Poll looked at views regarding the Biden administrations first 100 days, the future of the Republican Party, mental health, and the impacts of social media.
As millennials and Gen Z become the largest voting bloc, their values and participation provide hope for the future and also a sense of urgency that our country must address the pressing issues that concern them, said , Director, Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School.
What we see in this years Harvard Youth Poll is how great the power of politics really is, said John Della Volpe, the Director of Polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. With a new president and the temperature of politics turned down after the election, young Americans are more hopeful, more politically active, and they have more faith in their fellow Americans.
Top findings of this survey, the 41st in a biannual series, include the following:
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Why Did House Democrats Underperform Compared To Joe Biden
The results of the 2020 elections pose several puzzles, one of which is the gap between Joe Bidens handsome victory in the presidential race and the Democrats disappointing performance in the House of Representatives. Biden enjoyed an edge of 7.1 million votes over President Trump, while the Democrats suffered a loss of 13 seats in the House, reducing their margin from 36 to just 10.
Turnout in the 2018 mid-term election reached its highest level in more than a century. Democrats were fervently opposed to the Trump administration and turned out in droves. Compared to its performance in 2016, the partys total House vote fell by only 2%. Without Donald Trump at the head of the ticket, Republican voters were much less enthusiastic, and the total House vote for Republican candidates fell by nearly 20% from 2016. Democratic candidates received almost 10 million more votes than Republican candidates, a margin of 8.6%, the highest ever for a party that was previously in the minority. It was, in short, a spectacular year for House Democrats.
To understand the difference this Democratic disadvantage can make, compare the 2020 presidential and House results in five critical swing states.
Table 1: Presidential versus House results
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Despite The State Of Our Politics Hope For America Is Rising And So Is Youths Faith In Their Fellow Americans
In the fall of 2017, only 31% of young Americans said they were hopeful about the future of America; 67% were fearful. Nearly four years later, we find that 56% have hope. While the hopefulness of young whites has increased 11 points, from 35% to 46% — the changes in attitudes among young people of color are striking. Whereas only 18% of young Blacks had hope in 2017, today 72% are hopeful . In 2017, 29% of Hispanics called themselves hopeful, today that number is 69% .
By a margin of nearly three-to-one, we found that youth agreed with the sentiment, Americans with different political views from me still want whats best for the country — in total, 50% agreed, 18% disagreed, and 31% were recorded as neutral. In a hopeful sign, no significant difference was recorded between Democrats and Republicans .
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Us Election 2020 Polls: Who Is Ahead
BBC News
Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.
The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.
As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.
We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.
Debate On Covid Mandates Takes Center Stage In New Virginia Governor’s Race Ads
Covid and vaccine mandates are looming large in the Virginia gubernatorial race, and now both;Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin are taking the issue to the airwaves too.;
McAuliffe has been hammering Youngkin for weeks on the issue in a variety of settings, including on the air. Last week, McAuliffe’s campaign started running a spot that hit Youngkin on his opposition to maks and vaccine mandates, linking him to Trump in the process.;
This week, McAuliffe criticized a new spot where a trauma surgeon speaks directly to camera, calling Youngkin’s approach to the pandemic “dangerous.”;
Right around the same time, the Youngkin camp went on the air with a new ad that emphasizes the Republican nominee has been vaccinated and believes “the numbers show the Covid vaccines save lives.” Youngkin follows those comments by saying “it’s your right to make your own choice, and I respect that. I do hope you’ll join me in getting the vaccine.”;
Virginia’s another race where Covid politics could prove to be an important issue on the minds of voters in the coming months.;
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Biden Agenda To Face The Challenges Of A Closely Divided Congress
“I think the bigger issue is that if you look around the world, we have a lot of these misses,” Trende said. Polls, for example, failed to capture the U.K.’s vote for Brexit, as well as Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s 2019 win. “These kind of populist-right candidates have outperformed polls not all the time, but more than 50-50. I think there’s a bigger issue going on,” Trende said.
Kennedy sees two possibilities about the ramifications of Trump himself throwing polls off.
“If it’s really because of his unique political profile, his unique ability to turn out voters who are not easily modeled, not easily identified, not easily reachable is it that, or is it something more long lasting and something more fundamental to how surveys are being done these days?” she said.
The latter is a scary possibility it means pollsters have not only serious problems to fix but problems they haven’t identified.
On the other hand: “If it’s the first one, then an election in the future when there’s no Donald Trump on the ballot, then maybe we go back to more normal times,” she said.
Still, that’s not a satisfying answer. Furthermore, another politician like Trump, who similarly confuses the polls, could always come along.
With reporting from NPR’s Susan Davis.
Election 2016: Super Tuesday Polls Standing For Republicans And Democrats Ahead Of Major Voting Day
Fresh off of a third straight win in Nevada, the candidacy of Republican front-runner Donald Trump has decided momentum as the 2016 race approaches Super Tuesday, when 12 mostly Southern states will vote for their preferred nominee. No longer is the brash billionaire a long- shot candidate written off for his seeming inability to make it through a campaign rally without stirring controversy.
Instead, that controversy and his nontraditional campaign have propelled him into a prime position to kick off March with a running start toward the Republican nomination as he dominates most of the polling in states that will vote Tuesday.
The delegate count and current polls show;that Trump could potentially cinch the nomination by mid-March.;
The so-called outsider candidate in the Democratic field;does not enjoy as much support. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in nine of the 11 states Democrats vote in for Super Tuesday;and is close in one of the others.
The results could be decisive. There are 595 delegates up for grabs on the GOP side and 1,004 available to the Democrats . Trump, after Nevada, has 81 delegates toward the necessary 1,237 to get the partys nomination. Clinton has 502 of the 2,382 delegates needed for her partys nomination.
Heres a breakdown of the standings in each of the Super Tuesday states, thanks to Real Clear Politics‘ averages for the states.
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Trump Adds Two More Candidate Endorsements To 2022 List
Former President Donald Trump endorsed two Republican candidates for the 2022 midterm elections on Wednesday one in the high-profile Pennsylvania Senate race and another who is challenging a Washington Republican congressman who voted for his impeachment.;
Trump backed Pennsylvania Republican Sean Parnell in a statement where he praised Parnell’s Army service and repeated unfounded claims of widespread election fraud. “He will make Pennsylvania very proud and will fight for Election Integrity, Strong Borders, our Second Amendment, Energy Jobs and so much more,” Trump said in a statement from his political action committee, as he remains banned from major social media platforms. ” Sean Parnell will always put America First. He has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”
Parnell, an author who co-founded a veterans’ group after leaving the military,;narrowly lost a bid against Rep. Conor Lamb, D-Penn., in 2020. And if he wins the GOP primary race which includes former GOP Lt. Gov. nominee Jeff Bartos, political commentator Kathy Barnette and former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands (from Trump’s administration he may get a rematch against Lamb, who is running in his own crowded primary.;
Ben Kamisar and Mark Murray
