Saturday, July 20, 2024

Where Does President Trump Stand In The Polls

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Ivanka Trump Fusses Over Dress In Jan 6 Documentary Teaser

Trump family pays respects to Queen Elizabeth II

On another issue important to voters, Morris said Trump and the Republicans have a strong hand to play as the law-and-order party and paint Biden and the Democrats as soft on crime during the fall midterms and in 2024.

He said the left wing of the Democratic Partys campaign to defund the police is a gift to Trump and the GOP.

The crime issue is particularly toxic for the Democrats, because it is obvious to voters that it was not nearly as bad a problem before Biden was elected. Back in 2019, and before, crime had fallen out of the headlines and faded in popular consciousness. But after Bidens election, the movement to defund the police, and the vilification of dedicated, responsible, fair, and hardworking police officers has set the crime rate soaring. So who is to blame? Figure it out!, Morris said.

The Left wants to cut the number of uniformed police and replace them with social workers and psychologists to stem violence and escalation. So the next time you worry that a criminal is trying to break into your home, call 911 and wait for a social worker to arrive, he said.

The Lefts goal is not to reduce crime by cutting the number of murders, rapes, and robberies. It is to reduce punishment, incarceration, and harsh sentencing by decriminalizing crime.

He said decriminalization of marijuana makes sense, but Democrats have gone overboard with policies such as eliminating cash bail.

A Timeline Of Donald Trump’s Election Denial Claims Which Republican Politicians Increasingly Embrace

From 2016 to today, Trump made election criticism a key part of his campaigns.

This story is part of the ABC News series “Democracy in Peril,” which examines the inflection point the country faces after the Jan. 6 attacks and ahead of the 2022 election.

Six years ago, Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz responded in no uncertain terms to then-candidate Donald Trump’s claims of a rigged GOP primary election, for which Trump didn’t have evidence.

“Apparently, when anyone votes against him, its an act of theft,” Cruz, who was running against Trump, told Glenn Beck in April 2016.

Some five years later, Cruz rose on the floor of the Senate in support of Trump’s renewed but unfounded argument that the presidential election he had recently lost was rigged against him. In a speech on Jan. 6, 2021, Cruz said he was voting not to accept the Electoral College results showing Trump was defeated because so many Americans had been persuaded that Trump had, in fact, won.

“For those who respect the voters, simply telling the voters, ‘Go jump in a lake, the fact that you have deep concerns is of no moment to us’ — that jeopardizes, I believe, the legitimacy of this and subsequent elections, Cruz said in that speech, mere minutes before an angry mob breached the Capitol.

How The Fbis Activity Is Being Framed

The FBIs activity on Monday in Palm Beach acting on a warrant reportedly related to a probe involving Trumps handling of top secret documents provided a dramatic picture of the unprecedented examination of a former president by federal, state and local investigators on the civil and criminal front.

Three in 4 voters said they had seen, read or heard at least something about the FBIs raid by the time of the survey, with little variation by political affiliation. In turn, most voters aligned with reporting that the search was related to mishandling of classified information, compared with 32% who thought it was related to Jan. 6 and 14% who said it was something else.

In a statement, Trump called the FBIs search an act of political persecution and a Witch Hunt designed to harm the political movement he leads. While much of the Republican electorate buys that charge, the message does not appear to have legs with the broader public.

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Lower Confidence In Biden On Issues

Public confidence in Biden on major issues has declined as his overall job approval rating has fallen. Today, majorities say they are not too confident or not at all confident in Bidens handling of several issues, including his ability to deal with an international crisis and to make good decisions on the economy.

As in the past, Biden draws more confidence for his handling of the public health impact of the coronavirus than other issues. About as many say they are very or somewhat confident in Bidens handling of COVID-19 as say they are not too or not at all confident .

Of the issues included in the survey, the public is least confident in Bidens ability to bring the country closer together: 74% say they are not too or not at all confident in Bidens ability to do so. Only about a quarter of the public say they are confident in Bidens ability to bring the country closer together.

Confidence in Bidens ability to handle many of these issues has declined since the early months of his presidency.

Since March 2021, confidence in Bidens ability to make good decisions on the economy has fallen 17 percentage points , and there have been comparable declines in confidence in the presidents handling of the coronavirus, immigration, and law enforcement and criminal justice.

Trump Probably Needs To Win Pennsylvania To Have A Shot At Victory

Donald Trump election polls: Trump gaining momentum fast as Biden ...

To get a sense of where the polls are, lets start off with a scenario where Biden and Trump each win everywhere theyre up by 4 percentage points or more, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling averages.

In this scenario, Biden would win the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That would be enough for him to win the presidency without needing any of the toss-up states that polling averages show being closer .

So Trump very much needs to find weak spots in this map. And, understandably, hes focused on the same weak spots that were in Democrats blue wall in 2016 Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

The final polls showed Hillary Clinton winning all three of those states, but Trump won them all instead, each by a margin less than 1 percentage point. However, Bidens poll leads in each state are bigger than Clintons leads were in 2016.

In, Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden leads by about 8 percentage points in the FiveThirtyEightaverages. The RealClearPoliticsaverages show it a bit closer, with Bidens lead at 5 to 6 points in each. But basically, Trump has to hope for a fairly large polling miss to put him in contention in either state.

So if something were to go wrong for Joe Biden, it would probably entail a loss in Pennsylvania. Conversely, if Biden wins Pennsylvania, hes likely won the presidency as well.

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What Polls Say About Trump 2024 Run As Ex

Former President Donald Trump is reportedly considering launching a 2024 presidential run as early as this month as polls show he could force President Joe Biden into a tight race.

Trump, who has for years teased the possibility of another presidential bid, is reportedly hoping to capitalize off Biden’s waning poll numbers and announce his campaign this summer, even though prospective candidates typically wait until after the midterm elections to announce.

Biden’s popularity has been damaged by economic concerns including inflation and high gas prices, largely fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war, giving Republicans hope to not only retake majorities in Congress this year, but to defeat the president in 2024though the Supreme Court‘s overturning of Roe v. Wade has seen Democrats make a comeback in polling this week.

Should Trump announce his campaign in the coming weeks, he would instantly be favored to win the Republican Party primary, but would be in for a tight race against incumbent Biden, according to recent polling.

Baggage Is As Baggage Does

There are three things which could, in principle, make Mr Trump less formidable: the depredations of age, legal sanctions and political misjudgments. On the first, at 76 a sudden, severe deterioration in health is obviously possible. That said, the former president appears hale and hearty.

His legal jeopardy seems more acute. The fbis dropping by Mar-a-Lago is only one of his problems. His business dealings are under investigation in New York. The House Committee on Ways and Means is making progress in its efforts to look at his tax records. State prosecutors in Georgia have empanelled a grand jury that is investigating his exhortation that Mr Raffensperger find 11,780 votes somewhere in the state in order to overturn his election loss. It has already issued subpoenas to compel testimony from allies such as Rudy Giuliani, Mr Trumps lawyer, and Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina. Investigators at the Department of Justice are closely following the work of the January 6th committee and have been seizing mobile phones and documents from those most closely involved in the efforts to keep Mr Trump in power.

The possibility of indictments may hasten Mr Trumps announcement of his candidacy, the better to play the victim. Casting the prosecution of a presidential candidate as a deep-state conspiracy is peculiarly compelling.

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Direction Of The Country


  • The percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the right direction ranged from 43% to 20% during President Trump’s term, with a termwide overall average of 35%.
  • The percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction ranged from 72% to 43% during President Trump’s term, with a termwide overall average of 58%.
  • The direction of the country spreadthe difference between the percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the right direction and those who felt the country was headed in the wrong directionranged from a net 4% to a net 53% who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction during President Trump’s term. The overall termwide average was a net 23% of Americans who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction.
  • Direction of the country rating, 2017-2021

    Election To The Presidency

    Gutfeld: The media wants Trump back

    On November 8, 2016, Trump received 306 pledged electoral votes versus 232 for Clinton. The official counts were 304 and 227 respectively, after defections on both sides. Trump received nearly 2.9 million fewer popular votes than Clinton, which made him the fifth person to be elected president while losing the popular vote. Clinton was ahead nationwide with 65,853,514 votes to 62,984,828 votes .

    Trump’s victory was considered a stunning political upset by most observers, as polls had consistently showed Hillary Clinton with a nationwide âthough diminishing âlead, as well as a favorable advantage in most of the competitive states. Trump’s support had been modestly underestimated throughout his campaign, and many observers blamed errors in polls, partially attributed to pollsters overestimating Clinton’s support among well-educated and nonwhite voters, while underestimating Trump’s support among white working-class voters.The polls were relatively accurate, but media outlets and pundits alike showed overconfidence in a Clinton victory despite a large number of undecided voters and a favorable concentration of Trump’s core constituencies in competitive states.

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    Trumps Support In Iowa For Another Run Surpasses Bidens

    According to news reports, Trumps decision is more a matter of when to launch a 2024 campaign, not if he should.

    Some Republican operatives believe he should wait to make an announcement until after the November midterm elections to avoid taking the focus off Biden, whose approval ratings have plummeted amid rising inflation and soaring gas prices. But aides and allies have said an announcement could come as early as this summer.

    Unlike Biden, Trump has fared well in Iowa in the past, placing second in the 2016 presidential caucuses and carrying the state in both the 2016 and 2020 general elections. Today, he garners more support in Iowa for another presidential bid than Biden, his 2020 rival, the poll shows.

    Just 23% of Iowans say they hope Biden, 79, runs for president again, while 67% say they hope he does not. Nine percent are not sure.

    Unlike Trump, Biden fails to garner a majority of support from within his own party for another campaign. Among Democrats, just 37% say he should run again, while 52% say they hope he does not.

    Bidens approval rating in Iowa has hit a new low at 27%. At the same time, the share of Iowans who believe the country is on the wrong track has surpassed even what it was during the 2008 Great Recession. Today, 84% of Iowans believe things in the nation are on the wrong track. Just 10% say they believe things are headed in the right direction.

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    Here’s Where Biden And Trump Stand In The Polls 100 Days Out From The Presidential Election

    The 2020 presidential election is only 100 days away and former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in most of the recent national and battleground state polls.

    Ipsos, YouGov and Morning Consult polls conducted in mid-July among likely voters all found Biden was leading Trump by at least 7 points nationally. Biden also began gaining ground on Trump over the last couple of months in swing states and continues to hold that lead with fewer than four months to go before the election on November 3.

    The 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, lost each of the six key swing statesArizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin to Trump nearly four years ago. Aside from Arizona and North Carolina, which also went red in 2012, the four other swing states flipped for Trump after leaning blue in the previous presidential election.

    Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee in April after Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race, the last of Biden’s Democratic competitors to do so. A few days after Sanders suspended his campaign, he joined several of his previous Democratic competitors in announcing his support for the former vice president.

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    Trump Poll Tests His 2024 Comeback Map

    The former president is targeting five swing states that are pivotal to his hopes of winning back the White House.

    Former President Donald Trump speaks at a September rally in Georgia, one of the five states that flipped to President Joe Biden in 2020. | Sean Rayford/Getty Images

    11/23/2021 04:30 AM EST

    As Donald Trump builds out a presidential-campaign-in-waiting, his team is focusing on an electoral strategy that relies on recapturing the five states that flipped to Joe Biden in 2020.

    The five states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin delivered a total of 73 electoral votes in 2020, enough to produce a decisive Electoral College victory for Biden. Since then, Trump has held four rallies, endorsed dozens of candidates and played a key role in shaping contests that could put his allies in top offices in those states in 2024.

    Trumps shadow campaign also recently polled Trump-Biden matchups in the five states, all of which were decided in 2020 by fewer than 3 percentage points. According to the poll, a memo of which was obtained by POLITICO, the former president led Biden in Arizona by 8 percentage points, Georgia by 3 points, Michigan by 12 points, Pennsylvania by 6 points and Wisconsin by 10 points.

    The poll numbers send a message to those who think Trumps grip on the Republican Party is loosening, said Tony Fabrizio, a top GOP pollster who conducted the surveys for Trumps super PAC, Make America Great Again, Again!

    Views Of Biden Trump And Other Political Leaders

    Here is where Trump and Biden stand on housing issues

    A larger share of the public expresses an unfavorable opinion than a favorable opinion of each of eight different prominent political leaders, including four Democrats and four Republicans. These figures are consistently viewed more negatively by members of the opposing party than positively by members of their own party.

    A narrow majority of the public say they have very or mostly unfavorable views of Joe Biden, compared with 43% who have very or mostly favorable views. While about nine-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic leaners have a favorable view.

    Views of Kamala Harris are nearly identical to those of Biden: 43% of the public rates her favorably versus 52% unfavorably. As is the case with opinions of Biden, the share of Republicans who express negative opinions about Harris is larger than the share of Democrats who express positive opinions .

    More Americans say they have an unfavorable view of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer than view them favorably . Pelosi is far more widely known than Schumer just 3% have never heard of Pelosi, compared with 26% who say they have not heard of Schumer.

    Donald Trump is viewed favorably by a somewhat smaller share of the public than Biden . Three-quarters of Republicans view Trump favorably, while about nine-in-ten Democrats view him unfavorably.

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    Yet it was during and after the 2016 general election, in which he lost the popular vote to Clinton but won the Electoral College, that he began making claims of fraud more consistently.

    In the final weeks of the 2016 race, he refused to confirm whether he would accept a defeat. Afterward, he insisted he had only lost the popular vote through wrongdoing.

    “I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally,” he said — without any proof.

    Upon taking office, Trump set up a short-lived commission to investigate voter fraud, though evidence was never found.

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