Where Does Trump Really Stand With Voters One Year Out
Todays polling data cant tell us exactly what to expect on Election Day in 2020. Events are moving too quickly and on too many frontsimpeachment, the economy, and foreign policy, with potential blockbuster court cases looming on hot-button issues relating to health care, immigration, and perhaps even abortionfor us to have a clear sense of where the electorate will be a year from now.
But we do already know some of the electoral math that will be decisive in next years outcome: 85-plus percent of Republicans appear solid for Trump and 90-plus percent of Democrats appear willing to support the Democratic nominee, whoever that is. Which means that if either major-party nominee can carry independent voters by anything close to double digits, that candidate will win the popular vote and also win the Electoral College.
Polling on ImpeachmentLets start with impeachment. Public opinion is moving and distinctly unsettled. In a Quinnipiac poll conducted in mid-September, 37 percent of the respondents supported Trumps impeachment and removal while 57 percent were opposed. The splits were 95-4 percent opposed among Republicans and 73-21 percent in favor among Democrats, while independents were opposed 58-34 percent.
There was another interesting number in the late-October WaPo/ABC poll: Asked about Rudy Giulianis shadow foreign policy in Ukraine, 60 percent of voters said it was inappropriate, including 61 percent of independents and 32 percent of Republicans.
Top Dem Super Pac To Party: It Could Get Much Worse
Biden has also publicly said he plans to run for reelection. The super PAC supporting him, Unite The Country, is similarly gearing up in the five states the Trump campaign has focused on, first with an eye on the midterms and then the presidential race in 2024.
Steve Schale, CEO for Unite The Country, said he had no reason to doubt Fabrizios polling for Trump as Bidens poll numbers have dropped for months. But Schale noted that midterm polling a year out is hardly predictive of what happens in a presidential election in three years.
There are historical headwinds were facing, that any president faces during a midterm: five of the last seven midterm elections have been wave cycles for the other party, Schale said.
He recalled that then-President Barack Obama won reelection after Democrats were crushed in his first midterm election in 2010, and predicted that, if Republicans recapture Congress, they will veer too far right and damage Trumps chances in 2024.
Still, after Democrats were humbled in Virginias statewide races earlier this month, Schale issued a memo to donors saying it was a wake-up call for the party and pledged a seven-figure ad campaign to tout Bidens accomplishments in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The polling from Fabrizio suggests that Biden could use the help. On 10 different issues ranging from immigration to gun control to the economy, Trump bests Biden in the swing states, often by double digits, according to the poll.
North Carolina Florida And Ohio: Gop Pollster Says Biden Only Needs To Win 1
North Carolina, Florida and Ohio will be key to victory for President Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Republican pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz told CNBC.
If Donald Trump wins all three of them, hes going to be in this, Luntz said on Squawk Box.If Biden wins even one of those three, its Bidens presidency.
The three states all began processing mail ballots before Election Day and expect to have results by Wednesday morning, therefore offering an early look at each candidates prospects.
Luntz said if the president can win all three states, the election outcome may hinge on the results in Pennsylvania, which may take some time. The state did not start processing ballots until 7 a.m. Tuesday and cannot begin counting ballots until polls close on Election Day.
Trump won North Carolina, Florida and Ohio in 2016. Hannah Miao
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‘suggestive’ Photographs Are The Reason Hillary Clinton Wears Pant Suits
When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably — and immediately — ask some version of this question: “Is he going to run again? And can he win?”
The Point: Trump is the least predictable politician, well, ever. Which means that you can never bank of anything with him — including another run for president. But, man does it look and sound like he is going to run again. And, yes, he can win.
Trump Was Unpopular In The Fall But Got Elected Anyway Does His Standing In Polls Matter
Yes, it does, especially to members of Congress.
In the fall, Trump was running against a Democrat, Hillary Clinton, who was also very unpopular. A significant bloc of voters disliked both of them, and a majority of those voters made up their minds for Trump.
The situation has changed: Now polls are a straight-up gauge of Trumps standing, and he, of course, wont face voters again until 2020. But members of the House, and one-third of the Senate, will be up for election in just over 17 months.
Historically, when presidents are unpopular, voters in midterm elections turn to candidates of the opposing party to act as a check on the White House.
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Trump Wins Back Independents Biden Loses Ground With Women
Both candidates largely hold onto voters within their own parties. Ninety-three percent of Democrats support Biden, along with 4% of self-described Republicans. And 89% of Republicans support Trump, along with 2% of Democrats.
But Trump has regained an edge with those who identify as independents a bloc key to his 2016 win in Iowa. According to National Election Pool exit polling published by CNN, independent voters favored Trump 51% to 38% over Democrat Hillary Clinton that year.
In the Registers September Iowa Poll, Biden led with independents 50% to 38%. But today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35%.
I think that the key to whats happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents, Selzer said. That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and its come back to be a Trump asset.
In addition to fading with independents, Biden has lost ground with women. In September, he held a 20-point lead among women, which balanced out Trumps 21-point lead among men. But today, Bidens lead with women has shrunk to 9 percentage points, 50% to 41%.
We saw a huge gender gap that benefited Biden in September, Selzer said. And while there is still a big gap among men theyre going for Trump by a 24-point margin its just a 9-point margin for Biden with women. And so theres just an imbalance there. Before, we saw mirror images of each other.
Most Voters Believe Donald Trump Broke Law In Office New Poll Showsprotesters Stand In Front Of Trump Tower In New York Tuesday Aug 9 2022 Image Via Ap
Most voters believe Donald Trump broke the law as President, and about half support an FBI search of his Florida estate. Thats according to a Morning Consult poll published by POLITICO.
The poll, conducted on Aug. 10, gauged public opinion on the raid of Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate. Predictably, voters opinions diverged widely based on political partisanship, with 84% of Democrats approving of the FBI search, and 72% of Republicans opposed.
But of note, 47% of independents sided with the FBI on the action, compared to just 33% who said they were opposed.
In total, 49% of voters said they strongly or somewhat approved of executing the search warrant on the Trump estate, and 37% said they strongly or somewhat disapproved. The remaining 13% said they did not know or have an opinion on the raid. Pollsters report a 2 percentage point margin of error.
About 41% said they considered the actions of the FBI an abuse of power that should be investigated, and another 6% believe its an abuse, but not one that rises to the level of a probe. About 40% of voters do not consider the search to be an abuse of power.
Notably, a far greater number of respondents believe Trump committed crimes in office than those who believe allegations deserve to be investigated.
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Database To Trace Police Misbehaviour
President Trump has touted the First Step Act as a key step he made towards criminal justice reform.
The 2018 bipartisan bill was significant, and reformed laws at the federal level, giving judges more discretion during sentencing as well as strengthening prisoner rehabilitation efforts.
Mr Trump had also promised a follow-up Second Step Act that would address employment barriers for former prisoners, though no such legislation has been proposed thus far.
During his 2016 campaign, Mr Trump branded himself as a firm advocate of law enforcement and has remained so during his presidency, most recently escalating his support of police amid the nationwide protests against racial injustice.
In June, President Trump signed an executive order introducing several police reforms, offering federal grants for improved practices, including the creation of a database to trace abuses by officers.
The president has said that controversial chokehold methods for restraining suspects should be prohibited “generally speaking”, but has not moved to enforce a ban.
Poll: Biden Now Leads Trump By Widest Margin In 6 Months
As President Bidens approval rating continues to bounce back from its summertime lows, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll now shows him leading former President Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch by the widest margin since March.
The survey of 1,634 U.S. adults was conducted from Sept. 2 to Sept. 6 immediately after a combative primetime speech last Thursday, in which Biden blasted Trump and the MAGA Republicans as extremists who threat the very foundations of our republic.
The poll found that if the next presidential election were held today, 48% of registered voters would choose Biden, while 42% would choose Trump. Bidens new 6-point lead is 3 points larger than his edge in the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey from late August and 4 points better than his average lead across all Yahoo News/YouGov surveys conducted between April and July . The polls margin of error is approximately 2.6%.
The last time Biden led Trump in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll by 6 percentage points or more among registered voters was in March 2022 . The time before that was in May 2021 . Notably, Bidens support today matches those previous highs.
None of which means Biden is a lock to defeat Trump in 2024. The election is still years away, and Trump won in 2016 despite losing the national popular vote . Meanwhile, more Americans still disapprove than approve of Bidens performance in office.
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New Poll Asks Americans Whether Trump Should Face Charges Top Midterm Priorities
About half of Americans think former President Donald Trump should face criminal charges for his role in the deadly insurrection that took place at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. But far fewer roughly a quarter think Trump will actually be prosecuted.
Since hearings by the House committee investigating the attack began in June, new evidence and testimony have revealed how much Trump and members of his administration knew about the potential for violence, as well as the former presidents embrace of his armed supporters and his unwillingness to intervene when chaos overwhelmed the Capitol.
While a majority of Americans overall blame Trump for what happened that day, public opinion remains divided down party lines, according to this last poll. Nearly all Democrats 92 percent and a majority of independents but only about one in five Republicans agree.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
The final scheduled Jan. 6 hearing is slated to start Thursday at 8 p.m. ET and is expected to offer a minute-by-minute account of what Trump did and didnt do as the Capitol was overrun. In September, the committee is scheduled to release a report of its findings.
Meanwhile, federal prosecutors responsible for charging suspects related to the attack have also been watching the hearings. Unlike Congress, We do not do our investigations in public, Attorney General Merrick Garland said at the Justice Department Wednesday.
Donald Trump And The Politics Of Fear
Trumps candidacy relies on the power of fear. It could be the only way for him to win.
People are scared, Donald Trump said recently, and he was not wrong.
Fear is in the air, and fear is surging. Americans are more afraid today than they have been in a long time: Polls show majorities of Americans worried about being victims of terrorism and crime, numbers that have surged over the past year to highs not seen for more than a decade. Every week seems to bring a new large- or small-scale terrorist attack, at home or abroad. Mass shootings form a constant drumbeat. Protests have shut down large cities repeatedly, and some have turned violent. Overall crime rates may be down, but a sense of disorder is constant.
Fear pervades Americans livesand American politics. Trump is a master of fear, invoking it in concrete and abstract ways, summoning and validating it. More than most politicians, he grasps and channels the fear coursing through the electorate. And if Trump still stands a chance to win in November, fear could be the key.
Fear and anger are often cited in tandem as the sources of Trumps particular political appeal, so frequently paired that they become a refrain: fear and anger, anger and fear. But fear is not the same as anger it is a unique political force. Its ebbs and flows through American political history have pulled on elections, reordering and destabilizing the electoral landscape.
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Mood Is Great In The White House Mnuchin Says
The mood is great in the White Houses East Room, where a couple of hundred people gathered to watch election results, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBCs Kayla Tausche.
The gathering comes less than two months after the White House hosted guests at an event announcing Amy Coney Barrett as the Supreme Court nominee, which the nations top infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci later labeled a super-spreader event.
President Donald Trump and several other White House officials fell ill with the virus shortly after the event.
Ending The ‘reliance’ On China And Protecting Us Manufacturing
Mr Trump first campaigned on the promise the US should put focus on its own economic interests though he has said “America First” does “not mean “America alone”.
On trade, Mr Trump has taken a hard-line stance on China, coupled with a policy to protect local manufacturers from foreign competition – and those remain the key aspects of his trade policy.
Throughout his first term, the president emphasised his work renegotiating past trade deals he says were unfair to the US – like Nafta, between the US, Canada, and Mexico – or leaving them outright – like the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
On the 2016 campaign trail, he also promised to fix the US trade deficit , which, for the first time in six years did decline in 2019, though economists disagree on whether this suggests an improvement in the economy.
President Trump’s ongoing trade war with China has raised border taxes on close to $500bn of annual trade, and this year’s “phase one” deal between the two nations saw most of the tariffs remain in place.
In August, he said he wants to offer tax credits to entice US firms to move factories out of China , saying “we will end our reliance on China”.
Mr Trump has also imposed tariffs on goods from the European Union – from steel to French wine – has threatened tariffs on steel and aluminium from Brazil and Argentina, and recently re-imposed tariffs on some Canadian aluminium products.
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% Of Republican Voters Said Theyd Back Trump In A Hypothetical 2024 Contest Up From 54% In July
Former President Donald Trump has used the intense investigative scrutiny he is facing to energize his supporters. Its working with Republicans, according to a new Morning Consult/Politico survey conducted after the Federal Bureau of Investigations raid of his Mar-a-Lago home, but much of the broader electorate isnt buying his claims of a political witch hunt.
What We Covered Here
- SCOTUS fight: President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden sparred over the timing of the Senate vote on a nominee to replace Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, as the open seat becomes a new flashpoint in the 2020 race. Trump said he will announce his pick Friday or Saturday.
- On the campaign trail: Trump visited to Ohio today, where he spoke at a Workers for Trump event and held a rally. Biden spoke in Wisconsin.
- Election 101: CNNs got answers to your questions about the crucial event and how Covid-19 is reshaping the process. Read up here.
Our live coverage has ended. Read more about the 2020 election here.
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Trump Team Slams Out Of Control Classified Doc Probe In Response To Doj Appeal
More registered voters approve of Mondays FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago than disapprove, according to a new poll which also found that a plurality would rather see former President Donald Trump run for the White House in 2024 than President Biden.
The Politico/Morning Consult survey released Thursday found that 49% strongly or somewhat approve of the FBIs search, while 37% strongly or somewhat disapproved. Another 13% said they didnt know or had no opinion.
Reactions to the raid were split along partisan lines, with 84% of Democrats saying they approved and only 15% of GOP voters saying the same. Among independents, 47% approved and 32% disapproved.
Nearly three-quarters of Republicans said they disagreed with the Mar-a-Lago raid, while only 6% of Democratic voters said the same.
Unsurprisingly, 69% of Republican respondents said they believed the search was politically motivated a claim only 11% of Democrats agreed with. While 81% of Democrats said the search appeared to be related to evidence of a crime, only 16% of GOP voters said the same.
A majority of respondents 54% said they thought the raid was conducted due to mishandling of classified information, while 58% said they believed Trump definitely or probably broke the law during his four years in the White House.