Demographic Differences In Views Of Economy
Overall, 57% of Americans say current economic conditions are excellent or good, but these views vary across demographic groups: older people, those with higher incomes, men and whites are particularly likely to say the economy is in good shape, while these views are less widely shared among younger people, those with lower incomes, women, blacks and Hispanics.
These demographic gaps are little changed over the course of the last few years. Americans ages 65 and over are the most positive in their evaluations of the economy, with 70% saying it is in excellent or good shape. By comparison, about half of 18-29 year olds say the same. And while more than six-in-ten white people offer positive evaluations of the economy, that compares with roughly half of Hispanic people and just a third of black Americans .
There is a 12 percentage-point gender gap in these views: 64% of men say the economy is doing well, compared with 52% of women. And while 64% of college graduates say economic conditions are excellent or good, 54% of those without a college degree say the same.
Views of the economy also differ starkly by income. Among those with annual family incomes of $100,000 or more, 72% have positive views of the economy, with one-quarter rating it as excellent. Roughly two-thirds of those who make $75,000-$99,999 and $50,000-$74,999 rate the economy as excellent or good.
Do Republican Presidents Have Better Economic Records
Republicans often get the nod for being better with the economy. For example, a recent Pew Research Poll of registered voters found that 49 percent of voters trusted Republicans to handle the economy better, while 40 percent trusted Democrats. This post seeks to answer a simple question is this perception true when it comes to the presidency? Do Republican presidents have better economies?
To answer the question, I looked at a variety of measures. These included measures of economic performance, like Gross Domestic Product or the change in the unemployment rate. I also looked at some areas of criticism for Democrats that their policies lead to debt and inflation. Then, I looked at President Trumps favorite measure of performance the stock market. Finally, because this blog is about inequality, I examined how a measure of inequality did under Republican presidents and Democrats.
The results are presented in all their glory below, but let me summarize it for you. If you are going to vote for a Republican presidential candidate based on their economic performance, think again. The perception that Republican presidents get better economic performance is wrong. Across most of the measures I will present, if anything, Republicans do worse. And you dont have to believe me. Every measure I looked at came from here or here. Go have a look for yourself. Or, just trust me and read on.
Republican Presidents vs. Democrats: GDP & Unemployment
NoteData Series: NoteNote
The Philosophy Behind Democratic Economic Policy
Democrats gear their economic policies to benefit low-income and middle-income families. They argue that reducing income inequality is the best way to foster economic growth. Low-income families are more likely to spend any extra money on necessities instead of saving or investing it. That directly increases demand and spurs economic growth. Democrats also support a Keynesian economic theory, which says that the government should spend its way out of a recession.
One dollar spent on increased food stamp benefits generates $1.73 in economic output.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt first outlined the Economic Bill of Rights in his 1944 State of the Union address. It included taxes on war profiteering and price controls on food costs. President Harry Trumans 1949 Fair Deal proposed an increase in the minimum wage, civil rights legislation, and national health care. President Barack Obama expanded Medicaid with the 2010 Affordable Care Act.
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Everyone Does Better When The Presidents A Democrat
The numbers dont lie. The question is why every Democrat isnt talking about this all the time.
Our two political parties have certain identities that are seared into our collective public brain. Democrats: the party of workers, of civil rights, of compassion and fairness, and of higher taxes and more regulation. Republicans: party of the rich, big business , the free market, and lower taxes and less regulation.
And because the GOP is the party of big business, it is universally assumed that Republicans are better at handling the economy. Polls typically find that people trust Democrats more on all the things that government does, which stands to reason, but trust Republicans more on handling the economy. Just last week I saw a poll in which respondents rated Biden as better equipped than Trump to handle race relations, the virus response, and two or three other things; but on the economy, Trump bested Biden 51-46.
Its hard wired, and its wrong. Dead wrong.
Simon Rosenberg heads NDN, a liberal think tank and advocacy organization. He has spent years advising Democrats, presidents included, on how to talk about economic matters. Not long ago, he put together a little PowerPoint deck. It is fascinating. You need to know about it. The entire country needs to know about it.;
The deck consists of about 15 slides, but Ill walk you through just six so you get the idea. Lets start with job creation under each president:
Democrats, you have a great story to tell. Go tell it.;;;
A President Doesnt Really Matter For Investment Returns
The main lesson of this article is that a Democrat or Republican president doesnt really affect your investment returns. As there are so many variables that influence the S&P 500s index performance, who is president is not a significant factor.
The same thing goes for the CEO of a large publicly-traded company. If Tim Cook at Apple retired tomorrow, do you think the event would make a difference in Apples share price? There might be a knee-jerk move for one or two days, but after that, it would be back to business as usual. As a result, if you want to get rich, your goal is to try and become an overpaid CEO.
Instead of voting for a president who you think will be best for your investments, vote for a president who you think will do the most good for the most number of people. A country begins to rot if only some people get way ahead while others are left behind.
Since 2009, Ive been driven to try and help people improve their financial lives no matter who they are or who they vote for. Ive found that people who are more financially secure are nicer and happier people. More good comes out of the world as a result.
I dont believe only the rich, powerful, and connected and their children should get ahead. Theyve already got all the resources in the world that money can buy. Therefore, Financial Samurai will continue to be free for as long as Im alive.
Good Morning Why Has The Us Economy Fared So Much Better Under Democratic Presidents Than Republicans
Has the economy fared better under Democratic presidents or Republican presidents over the past century? The sensible answer might seem to be: Its probably been similar.
Presidents, after all, have only limited control over the economy. They dont have much influence over the millions of decisions every day, made by consumers and business executives, that shape economic growth, jobs, incomes and stock prices. Over the course of a century, it seems logical that the economy would have performed similarly under Democrats and Republicans.
But it hasnt.
The economy has fared far better under Democrats. The gap, as one academic paper puts it, is startlingly large. Here are the headline numbers:
And here is a ranking of presidents by average annual G.D.P. growth:
The gap exists not only for G.D.P. and jobs but also for incomes, productivity and stock prices. The gap also exists if you assume that a presidents policies affect the economy with a lag and dont start his economic clock until months after he takes office. Virtually any reasonable look at the data shows a big Democratic advantage.
My colleague Yaryna Serkez and I have just documenting the pattern and the potential reasons. A few possibilities are easy to reject. Its not about congressional control, nor is it about Democrats running up larger budget deficits.
Republican presidents have been slow to respond to recessions and other crises Donald Trump and both George Bushes being examples.
The Economy Does Better Under Democrats
Republicans have managed to create and maintain the myth that their party is best for the American economy. The facts say something different.
But the facts are not on the Republicans side. Historically, the American economy has performed measurably better when Democrats are in charge.
Here are some quick stats you can use when to support your assertions about the economy:
1) Since 1947, when official GDP calculations were introduced, GDP growth under Democratic administrations has consistently outpaced that of Republican administrations. This is true even when major crises like the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic are factored out.
A similar study by Princeton economists found that from Truman to Obama, growth was 1.8 percent higher under Democratic administrations than their Republican counterparts.
2) On average, stock market growth is stronger under Democrats. Again comparing the period since 1947, data shows that markets grew an average of 10.8 percent under Democratic presidents, compared to 5.6 percent for under Republican presidents.
3) Democratic administrations create more jobs.
Since the 1960s, when the party holding the presidency began to fluctuate regularly, Democrats have, on average, outperformed Republicans in terms of job growth. Republican President Regan is an outlier, as he did post impressive job numbers. Here is a comparison:
Johnson 10 MillionH.W. Bush 3 MillionClinton 23 MillionW. Bush 1 MillionObama 12 Million
Which Political Party Is Really Better For The Us Economy
WASHINGTON ;It seems every four years in the United States it boils down to one question for voters: hows the economy doing? Even during COVID-19, the pandemics impact on jobs and finances remains a major issue, according to a recent poll. So when it comes to Democrats and Republicans, which political party handles the economy better? A new study finds it may actually be better for Americans when both parties hold power.
Analysts at WalletHub have released their review of how the U.S. economy has fared since 1950 under both parties. Looking at times where one side controls the White House and Congress and times where the government was split, analysts find the best scenario for economy emerges when a Democrat is President, but Republicans control Congress.
The study looks at several key factors including the state of the stock market, unemployment, the national debt, home and gas prices, and even the level of income equality across America. Researchers also examined how each administration since Dwight D. Eisenhower has affected the nations fortunes.
Want A Better Economy Elect A Democratic President
I enjoyed David Leonhardts opinion piece in the New YorkTimes today including graphic evidence that the econmomy performed better under Democratic presidents for the last century.
A president has only limited control over the economy. And yet there has been a stark pattern in the United States for nearly a century. The economy has grown significantly faster under Democratic presidents than Republican ones.
Its true about almost any major indicator: gross domestic product, employment, incomes, productivity, even stock prices. Its true if you examine only the precise period when a president is in office, or instead assume that a presidents policies affect the economy only after a lag and dont start his economic clock until months after he takes office. The gap holds almost regardless of how you define success, two economics professors at Princeton, Alan Blinder and Mark Watson,;write. They describe it as startlingly large.
Accompanying graphics tell the story, with a couple shown here.
My dad, a yellow-dog Democrat stockbroker in southern Louisiana, preached this to me until his dying day. His evidence was only anecdotal, of course, but very tangible.
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Annual Growth Rate Of Nonfarm Jobs
Starting president’s economic clock…
The six presidents who have presided over the fastest job growth have all been Democrats, as you can see above. The four presidents who have presided over the slowest growth have all been Republicans.
The big question, of course, is why. And there are not easy answers.
I have shown the data to multiple economists in recent weeks, and most say they are not sure how to explain it, at least not fully. We dont quite get why its the case, Katherine Eriksson, a professor at the University of California, Davis, who specializes in economic history, told me. , an economist at the University of Tennessee, described the pattern to the graduate students in a class she teaches and asked for their thoughts. They were sort of stumped, she said.
- Ezra Klein writes that midterms typically raze the governing party and explores just how tough a road the Democrats have ahead.
- Michelle Cottle surveys the Republican opposition thats shaping up for 2022 and finds many candidates embracing the fiction that the election was stolen.
- Maureen Dowd writes that Biden has a very narrow window to do great things and shouldnt squander it appeasing Republican opponents.
- Thomas B. Edsall explores new research on whether the Democratic Party could find more success focusing on race or on class when trying to build support.
What, then, are the most plausible theories?
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on , and .
The Party Thats Actually Best For The Economy
Many analyses look at which party is best for the economy. A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that Democratic presidents since World War II have performed much better than Republicans. On average, Democratic presidents grew the economy 4.4% each year versus 2.5% for Republicans.
A study by Princeton University economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson found that the economy performs better when the president is a Democrat. They report that by many measures, the performance gap is startlingly large. Between Truman and Obama, growth was 1.8% higher under Democrats than Republicans.
A Hudson Institute study found that the six years with the best growth were evenly split between Republican and Democrat presidents.
Most of these evaluations measure growth during the presidents term in office. But no president has control over the growth added during his first year. The budget for that fiscal year was already set by the previous president, so you should compare the gross domestic product at the end of the presidents last budget to the end of his predecessors last budget.
For Obama, that would be the fiscal year from October 1, 2009, to September 30, 2018. Thats FY 2010 through FY 2017. During that time, GDP increased from $15.6 trillion to $17.7 trillion, or by 14%. Thats 1.7% a year.
The chart below ranks the presidents since 1929 on the average annual increase in GDP.
A president would have better growth if he had no recession.
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The Philosophy Behind Republican Economic Policy
Republicans advocate supply-side economics that primarily benefits businesses and investors. This theory states that tax cuts on businesses allow them to hire more workers, in turn increasing demand and growth. In theory, the increased revenue from a stronger economy offsets the initial revenue loss over time.
Republicans advocate the right to pursue prosperity without government interference. They argue this is achieved by self-discipline, enterprise, saving, and investing.
Republicans business-friendly approach leads most people to believe that they are better for the economy. A closer look reveals that Democrats are, in many respects, actually better.
In 2016 The Media Extensively Covered Trump Supporters Economic Anxiety Will This Misperception Continue In The Lead
This might seem surprising considering the national economy which experienced one of its worst downturns thanks to the coronavirus pandemic is now objectively improving. The United States added 916,000 jobs in March, smashing Dow Jones expectations and the unemployment rate is now at its lowest level in over a year. And economic forecasters now predict annual GDP growth in 2021 will soar to levels the country hasnt witnessed in nearly 40 years.
Yet, despite these optimistic economic indicators, most Republicans say the economy is getting worse. On the one hand, this is to be expected, as political scientists have found that how we think about the economy is increasingly rooted in how we identify politically rather than in actual economic conditions.
Take this data from Civiqs daily tracking polls, which has asked Americans about the economy each day since June 2016. Americans perceptions of the national economy have changed wildly depending on whether a Democrat or a Republican is in the White House.
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Trump Is Right About One Thing: The Economy Does Better Under The Democrats
Donald Trump holds a campaign rally in the Sun Country Airlines Hangar at Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport November 6, 2016.
Since Im an old Democrat supporting Hillary Clinton, it might surprise you to hear that I agree with Donald Trumps top line view of the economy.
No, I dont agree with much that hes said since he started his 2016 presidential campaign, and recent revelations have rightly drawn opprobrium. But since Im also an agreeable old southerner, Ill give credit where credit is due. Donald was absolutely right when he told Wolf Blitzer in 2004: Ive been around for a long time and it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans.
Thats right. Trump said out loud the same thing that Hillary Clinton has assertedand top academics and journalists have confirmed. The same thing Ive been;compiling cold, hard government data on since 1980: By crucial metrics like GDP, job creation, business investment and avoiding recessions, the economy does a lot better with Democrats in the White House than with Republicans. Just one eye-opening example: Nine of the last 10 recessions have been under Republicans.
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Pundits dont agree on exactly why. Some say the common thread may be external factors ranging from oil shocks and warm, fuzzy consumer expectations to economic cycles falling differently from political cycles.