Table 1 Partisan Gaps On Various Issues From Multiple 2020 Surveys
ABC News/Ipsos. June 1718, 2020. N=727 adults nationwide. Web-based survey. Estimates were computed by the authors. CBS News Poll. May 29June 2, 2020. N=1,309 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1. Kaiser Family Foundation. May 1318, 2020. N=1189 adults nationwide. Would you support or oppose your state government decreasing spending on Medicaid to deal with a budget shortfall? Estimates were computed by the authors. Quinnipiac University Poll. June 1115, 2020. N=1,332 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.7.
Figure 36 Proportion Of Each Group Who Favored The Federal Government Increasing Taxes On Gasoline
Electricity Consumption Taxes. An increase in federal taxes on electricity to cause people to use less of it has never gained majority support. Increased electricity taxes are supported by only 40% of Democrats, 12% of Republicans, and 27% of Independents in 2020, with a partisan gap of 47 percentage pointsan all-time high.
Figure 20 Proportion Of Each Group Who Believed The Worlds Temperature Will Probably Go Up Over The Next 100 Years
Future warming. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have believed that the earth will probably be warmer in a century if nothing is done to prevent it. In 2020, 94% of Democrats, 72% of Independents, and 56% of Republicans believe that warming will probably continue in the future. No notable growth has occurred in the partisan gap since 2011.
5°F warmer would be bad. Majorities of Democrats and of Independents have consistently believed that 5°F of global warming would be bad, but the proportion of Republicans expressing that belief has hovered around the midline, peaking at 59% in 1997 and dipping to its lowest points of 47% in 2010 and 2015. The partisan gap in 2020 is the biggest observed since 1997 at 34 percentage points.
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Congressman Steve Scalise Republican Of Louisiana
Incoming majority whip
Scalise was a co-sponsor of the 2011 Energy Tax Prevention Act to stop the EPA from regulating greenhouse gas emissions. The Obama administration needs to finally abandon their radical climate change agenda that is killing jobs and increasing costs for American families, he said in an August statement. Four years after the Democratic controlled Congress rejected the presidents cap-and-trade scheme, the White House wants to sidestep Congress and commit the United States to a United Nations agreement which would name and shame countries into adopting higher emissions standards. This just proves that the president is prepared to pursue his job-killing climate agenda at any cost, which the American people and House of Representatives will not stand for.
Arguments And Positions On Global Warming
Some climate change denial groups say that because CO2 is only a trace gas in the atmosphere it can only have a minor effect on the climate. Scientists have known for over a century that even this small proportion has a significant warming effect, and doubling the proportion leads to a large temperature increase. The scientific consensus, as summarized by the IPCC fourth assessment report, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other reports, is that human activity is the leading cause of climate change. The burning of fossil fuels accounts for around 30 billion tons of CO2 each year, which is 130 times the amount produced by volcanoes. Some groups allege that water vapor is a more significant greenhouse gas, and is left out of many climate models. While water vapor is a greenhouse gas, the very short atmospheric lifetime of water vapor compared to that of CO2 means that CO2 is the primary driver of increasing temperatures; water vapour acts as a feedback, not a forcing, mechanism. Water vapor has been incorporated into climate models since their inception in the late 1800s.
Climate denial groups may also argue that global warming stopped recently, a global warming hiatus, or that global temperatures are actually decreasing, leading to global cooling. These arguments are based on short term fluctuations, and ignore the long term pattern of warming.
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Senator Jim Inhofe Republican Of Oklahoma
Incoming chairman of the Senate committee on the environment and public works
Inhofe is the poster boy for Republican climate change denialism, not only for his stridency on the issue but because he is the once and future leader of the key Senate committee on environmental policy. Inhofe will be able to lead the committee for two years before running up against term limits . This time around, Inhofes committee is expected to focus on transportation and infrastructure bills.
But it seems likely that Inhofe will devote some energy to blocking the regulation of carbon emissions. We think this because on 12 November he told the Washington Post: As we enter a new Congress, I will do everything in my power to rein in and shed light on the EPAs unchecked regulations.
Inhofe has climate change the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people, has said God, not humans, controls the weather, and has denied climate change in many other ways.
Amid Extreme Weather A Shift Among Republicans On Climate Change
Many Republicans in Congress no longer deny that Earth is heating because of fossil fuel emissions. But they say abandoning oil, gas and coal will harm the economy.
By Lisa Friedman and Coral Davenport
WASHINGTON After a decade of disputing the existence of climate change, many leading Republicans are shifting their posture amid deadly heat waves, devastating drought and ferocious wildfires that have bludgeoned their districts and unnerved their constituents back home.
Members of Congress who long insisted that the climate is changing due to natural cycles have notably adjusted that view, with many now acknowledging the solid science that emissions from burning oil, gas and coal have raised Earths temperature.
But their growing acceptance of the reality of climate change has not translated into support for the one strategy that scientists said in a major United Nations report this week is imperative to avert an even more harrowing future: stop burning fossil fuels.
Instead, Republicans want to spend billions to prepare communities to cope with extreme weather, but are trying to block efforts by Democrats to cut the emissions that are fueling the disasters in the first place.
Dozens of Republicans in the House and Senate said in recent interviews that quickly switching to wind, solar and other clean energy will damage an economy that has been underpinned by fossil fuels for more than a century.
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In 2020 91% Of Democrats 73% Of Republicans And 82% Of Independents Favor Federal Government Efforts To Generate More Electricity Using Water Wind And Solar Power Reflecting A Partisan Gap Of 18 Percentage Points
Increase CAFE Standards. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have consistently favored federal government efforts to cause improvement in the fuel efficiency of cars. In 2020, 86% of Democrats, 52% of Republicans, and 70% of Independents favor this policy option, with a partisan gap of 34 percentage points .
What The World Thinks About Climate Change In 7 Charts
On April 22, leaders and representatives from more than 150 countries will gather at the United Nations to sign the global climate change agreement reached in Paris in December. Pew Research Centers spring 2015 survey found that people around the world are concerned about climate change and want their governments to take action. Here are seven key findings from the poll:
1Majorities in all 40 nations polled say climate change is a serious problem, and a global median of 54% believe it is a very serious problem. Still, the intensity of concern varies substantially across regions and nations. Latin Americans and sub-Saharan Africans are particularly worried about climate change. Americans and Chinese, whose countries have the highest overall carbon dioxide emissions, are less concerned.
2People in countries with high per-capita levels of carbon emissions are less intensely concerned about climate change. Among the nations we surveyed, the U.S. has the highest carbon emissions per capita, but it is among the least concerned about climate change and its potential impact. Others in this category are Australia, Canada and Russia. Publics in Africa, Latin America and Asia, many of which have very low emissions per capita, are frequently the most concerned about the negative effects of climate change.
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Figure 26 Proportion Of Each Group Who Thought That Us Businesses Should Do More About Global Warming
US businesses should do more to deal with global warming. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats and Independents have believe that US business should do more about global warming. In 2020, 92% of Democrats and 69% of Independents believe that businesses should do more. Minorities of Republicans have favored increased action from businesses, with all-time highs of 5859% in 1997 and 1998. The partisan gap is 49 percentage points in 2020.
Average people should do more to deal with global warming. Since 1997, majorities of Democrats and Independents have believed that average people should do more about global warming. In 2020, 90% of Democrats and 70% of Independents think that average people should do more. Smaller proportions of Republicans have also favored increased individual action, with all-time highs of 60% in 1997 and 1998. The partisan gap is 43 percentage points in 2020.
Economic Consequences Of Mitigation Policies
According to some observers, implementing some policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may increase the cost of American-made goods and services relative to those goods and services produced elsewhere, thus costing consumers and companies alike in the short term. In Climate Insights 2020: Policies and Politics, we saw that very few Americans believe that such undesirable economic side effects result from mitigation efforts. Here, we report how partisans perceive these economic consequences.
Interestingly, majorities of Democrats and of Republicans believe that mitigation policies do not exert ill economic effects, whether at the national level, state level, or their personal levels. Among Democrats, huge majorities believe that the United States doing things to reduce future global warming would not hurt the national economy, their state economy, the number of available jobs, or their own personal finances and job prospects. These sentiments were expressed by majorities of Republicans as well. The partisan gap, averaged over these six measures of economic impacts, was 21 percentage points.
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Figure 16 Trends In The Partisan Gap Using Two Measures Across All Years
These data refute the claim that the gap has grown in recent years amid an increasingly polarized political system in the United States.;
Figure 17 shows the partisan gap using seven measures included in 10 surveys: that global warming has been happening, that, if warming has been happening, it was caused at least in part by human activity, that government should reduce greenhouse gas emissions by power plants, that CAFE standards should be increased, that energy efficiency of buildings should be increased, that energy efficiency of appliances should be increased, and that climate scientists are trustworthy.
Using those measures, the partisan gap was 9 and 11 percentage points on average in 1997 and 1998, grew to 15 to 31 percentage points during 2007-2013, and stabilized between 22 and 29 percentage points in 20152020. In 2020, the gap was 29 percentage points, slightly greater than the previous years of 2018 and 2015 .;
The Republican Party Stands Alone In Climate Denial
Amid internal calls for climate action, a study finds that Republicans are the only climate-denying conservative party in the world
A paper published in the journal Politics and Policy by Sondre Båtstrand at the University of Bergen in Norway compared the climate positions of conservative political parties around the world. Båtstrand examined the platforms or manifestos of the conservative parties from the USA, UK, Norway, Sweden, Spain, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and Germany. He found that the US Republican Party stands alone in its rejection of the need to tackle climate change and efforts to become the party of climate supervillains.
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Farmers And Climate Denial
Seeing positive economic results from efforts at climate-friendly agricultural practices, or becoming involved in intergenerational stewardship of a farm may play a role in turning farmers away from denial. One study of climate change denial among farmers in Australia found that farmers were less likely to take a position of climate denial if they had experienced improved production from climate-friendly practices, or identified a younger person as a successor for their farm.
In the United States, rural climate dialogues sponsored by the Sierra Club have helped neighbors overcome their fears of political polarization and exclusion, and come together to address shared concerns about climate impacts in their communities. Some participants who start out with attitudes of anthropogenic climate change denial have shifted to identifying concerns which they would like to see addressed by local officials.
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Figure 35 Proportion Of Each Group Who Favored The Federal Government Giving Tax Breaks To Build Nuclear Power Plants
Gasoline Consumption Taxes. An increase in federal taxes on gasoline to cause people to use less of it has almost never gained majority support. Increased gasoline taxes reached and surpassed 50% favoring among Democrats in 2015 and 2018, then gained significant traction in 2020, reaching a peak at 65%. The partisan gap in 2020 was 47 percentage points, an all-time high.
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Florida Could Be Underwater In A Few Decades Can Republicans Win The Battleground State If They Refuse To Heed Environmental Warnings
Molly OTooleKeith JohnsonForeign Policy
MIAMI Florida is waging a quixotic battle against climate change that becomes immediately and aggravatingly apparent when driving anywhere in Miami. Endless orange traffic cones, flashing detour signs, and car-swallowing pits clog the streets as the city tries to rebuild overloaded sewer systems and literally raise roads above the encroaching flood waters.
Sitting in his cramped, cluttered office at the University of Miami, geophysics professor Chris Harrison squints at a rising red line on his computer monitor. It shows sea levels in Key West, which have risen 2 mm per year on average in the last hundred years or so. No longer: Now theyre rising by 3 mm each year bad news for a place where the highest elevation is 345 feet. So is Miami eventually doomed to a watery death?
Well, yes, he said.
MIAMI Florida is waging a quixotic battle against climate change that becomes immediately and aggravatingly apparent when driving anywhere in Miami. Endless orange traffic cones, flashing detour signs, and car-swallowing pits clog the streets as the city tries to rebuild overloaded sewer systems and literally raise roads above the encroaching flood waters.
Well, yes, he said.
I dont have a plan to influence the weather, he dismissively answered a question about climate change at a town hall in New Hampshire.
Fundamental Beliefs And Attitudes
For 14 out of 21 survey questions posed to American respondents about fundamental beliefs and attitudes regarding global warming, majorities of Democrats and Republicans alike hold green opinions in 2020.
For example, 94% of Democrats believe global warming has been happening, as do 67% of Republicans. 94% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans think warming will continue in the future if nothing is done to address it. 94% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans believe that if warming has been happening, human actions have been responsible for causing it.
Majorities of Democrats and of Republicans also agree about the likely effects of global warming98% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans believe global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the US if nothing is done to address it. Some 97% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans believe that global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem for the world if nothing is done to address it.
However, the partisans diverge on whether specific temperature changes have been or will be bad. Whereas 88% of Democrats believe that the warming that has happened over the past 100 years was bad, only 40% of Republicans believe that. And whereas 84% of Democrats believe that a 5-degree Fahrenheit increase in world temperature over the next 75 years would be bad, only 50% of Republicans agree.
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Taxonomy Of Climate Change Denial
In 2004, Stefan Rahmstorf described how the media give the misleading impression that climate change was still disputed within the scientific community, attributing this impression to PR efforts of climate change skeptics. He identified different positions argued by climate skeptics, which he used as a taxonomy of climate change skepticism: Later the model was also applied on denial.
Trend sceptics or deniers , argue that no significant climate warming is taking place at all, claiming that the warming trend measured by weather stations is an artefact due to urbanisation around those stations . Attribution sceptics or deniers , doubt that human activities are responsible for the observed trends. A few of them even deny that the rise in the atmospheric CO2 content is anthropogenic additional CO2 does not lead to discernible warming that there must be othernaturalcauses for warming. Impact sceptics or deniers .
This taxonomy has been used in social science for analysis of publications, and to categorize climate change skepticism and climate change denial. Sometimes, a fourth category called “consensus denial” is added, which describes people who question the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming.
Journalists and newspaper columnists including George Monbiot and Ellen Goodman, among others, have described climate change denial as a form of denialism.
