Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Can Another Republican Run For President In 2020

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Field Quickly Narrowing To Trump Vs Desantis

The top ten Republican presidential contenders in 2024

Trumps early announcement for president which he almost made before the midterm elections last week followed nearly two years of planning, fundraising and speeches. His interest in announcing a presidential bid intensified last year when President Joe Bidens approval ratings dropped amid the souring economy and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Aides say his desire to run became even more earnest as he increasingly saw DeSantis as a threat and, then, as the Department of Justice opened two separate criminal investigations into him over his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol and his possession and storage of sensitive documents that the federal government says he improperly handled in his post-presidency.

But others arent feeling Trumps urgency.

Since Trumps Tuesday speech, there have been more signs of movement in the invisible primary the behind-the-scenes battle to line up donors, endorsers and top staff than a rush to launch.

People are either waiting or scrambling to get as close to DeSantis inner circle as possible or theyre with Trump, Eberhart said of the donor class.

In the world of GOP elites, the field is quickly narrowing to Trump and DeSantis, and the Florida Republican source said there is something unique about their rivalry.

DeSantis continued to fundraise after the election but has no immediately known plans to convert the state political committee into a federal super PAC that could support his federal candidacy.

Senator Jeff Flake Of Arizona

Flake has become one of the most vocal Republican critics of Trump over the past year. He delivered a scorching rebuke of Trump from the Senate floor in October when he announced he would not seek re-election in 2018.

“I rise today with no small measure of regret,” he said. “Regret because of the state of our disunion. Regret because of the disrepair and destructiveness of our politics. Regret because of the indecency of our discourse. Regret because of the coarseness of our leadership.

“But we must never adjust to the present coarseness of our national dialogue with the tone set up at the top,” Flake continued. “We must never regard as normal the regular and casual undermining of our democratic norms and ideals. We must never meekly accept the daily sundering of our country. The personal attacks, the threats against principles, freedoms and institution, the flagrant disregard for truth and decency.”

“I will not be complicit,” Flake said near the end of his nearly 20-minute speech.

One might be forgiven for confusing this retirement speech with something else.

Flake also authored the book, Conscience of a Conservative: A Rejection of Destructive Politics and a Return To Principal, that detailed his critique of Trump in 2017.

Denying 270 To Both Candidates Means Republicans Are Favored

The last third-party candidate to win even a single Electoral Vote was George Wallace in 1968. The most likely scenario is that even a well-funded third-party candidate would get zero, or a small number of Electoral College voters. But if a third-party candidate blew past historic precedent and managed to win a significant number of Electoral College votes enough to keep any candidate from getting 270 the outcome would be decided in the House of Representatives, where Donald Trump would prevail. While this scenario is unlikely, it is worth considering as the best-case scenario for a third-party candidate.

We should start with the hypothesis that the deepest blue and red states are off the table there is not a scenario where Democrats lose California and New York, for example, or Republicans lose Wyoming and Mississippi. No third-party candidate could stand a chance in a state in which either Biden or Trump won by over 15 points in 2020. This takes the following states off the table:

Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Washington DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maines First District, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, New Jersey, New York, Nebraskas Third Congressional District, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Washington, Wyoming.

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Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley

Haley listens to Lisa Scheller, a Republican candidate for Pennsylvanias 7th Congressional District, speak with members of the media during a news conference in Allentown, Pa.

Haley was widely seen as a gifted politician during her time as governor of South Carolina. As the daughter of Indian immigrants, she was also viewed as an emblem of a new, more inclusive GOP.

Haley is a compelling figure, but her political positioning in relation to Trump has caused her problems.

Though she served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations during his tenure, she also left abruptly and is viewed with suspicion by some in the former presidents inner circle.

Haley caused a stir in the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6 insurrection when she was critical of Trump in a closed-door meeting with Republican National Committee members, saying his conduct between the election and the riot would be harshly judged by history.

Later, she again became far more supportive. She has indicated she will not be a candidate in 2024 if Trump enters the race.

Every time she criticizes me, she uncriticizes me about 15 minutes later, Trump mused to Vanity Fair in September 2021.

Question1 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way Joe Biden Is Handling His Job As President

Kanye West announces he
                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoApprove              37%     3%    80%    28%    30%    43%    50%    25%Disapprove           52     95     11     56     58     45     46     65DK/NA                12      3      9     15     12     12      4     10                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspApprove              31%    39%    37%    43%    26%    40%    33%    65%    33%Disapprove           48     50     55     53     65     53     59     22     51DK/NA                21     11      8      4      9      8      8     13     16

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The 2024 Presidential Election Democrats Have Already Won

The 2024 presidential election is already over. Democrats won. Or rather, they will. Just ask New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson, beneficiary of his oppositions inability to settle upon a single nominee in 1912. More accurately, and for the purpose of this example only, ask the Donald Trump of his age: Theodore Roosevelt. A former president from New York with inherited wealth, a loyal base of supporters, and an insatiable need to be the center of ever story, Roosevelts refusal to step aside, even for a once-loyal successor who promised virtually the same agenda, broke the Republican Partys lock on the electoral college.

History is revving up for a repetition of that fateful election. For forty-four of the fifty-two years preceding Wilsons tenure, and for another twelve after, the presidency belonged to the Grand Old Party. Roosevelt himself won the election of 1904 in a landslide, before handing his partys standard four years later to his personal and ideological friend, William Howard Taft. TR left office the youngest former president in historya distinction he still holds todaybut couldnt stay retired. More accurately he couldnt stay out of the spotlight, and ran against Taft a mere four years later for the Republican nomination.

Ten Republicans Most Likely To Be Their Partys Next Presidential Candidate

The moment Tuesdays midterm elections conclude, attention will shift to the 2024 presidential race.

On the Democratic side, President Biden has said he intends to run for reelection though a very bad night for Democrats on Tuesday would put that in serious doubt.

The greater intrigue will be on the Republican side.

Axios reported on Friday that former President Trump is considering launching a 2024 bid on Nov. 14. Regardless of whether Trump runs, there are plenty of others in the GOP with White House dreams.

Here are the current top ten contenders a list that could easily be shaken up by unexpected results on Tuesday.

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Senator Bob Corker Of Tennessee

Like Flake, Corker also has announced he won’t seek re-election. The decision has Tennessee voters speculating the junior senator may be eyeing the Oval Office, according to WTVC.

Corker also has been critical of the president, telling reporters, “The president not been able to demonstrate the stability nor some of the competence that he needs to demonstrate in order to be successful,” in August.

In September, after he announced his retirement, Corker was coy about his future plans.

“If there’s an opportunity for me to make a difference in some other way I’m sure that I would look at it,” he said.

Beating Others To The Punch

WATCH: The second and final 2020 presidential debate

Trump is betting that his first-out-of-the gate strategy will fend off potential primary rivals and give him an early advantage with deep-pocketed donors, aides say. He is widely expected to be challenged by both conservative and moderate Republicans, though the calculus of some presidential hopefuls could change now that he is running. Others like his former Vice President, Mike Pence may proceed anyway.

Of course, any countereffort to inhibit Trumps path to the nomination is likely to prove difficult. Despite his myriad legal entanglements and the stain of January 6, the twice-impeached 45th president remains immensely popular among most Republican voters and boasts a deep connection with his core backers that could prove difficult for other GOP hopefuls to replicate or weaken. Even leading conservatives who disliked Trumps pugnacious politics and heterodox policies stuck with him as president because he helped solidify the rightward shift of the US Supreme Court with his nominations one of the most far-reaching aspects of his legacy, which resulted in the conservative court majoritys deeply polarizing June decision to end federal abortion rights. In fact, while Trump ended his first term with the lowest approval rating of any president, Republicans viewed him favorably, according to a May NBC News poll. That alone could give Trump a significant edge over primary opponents whom voters are still familiarizing themselves with.

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The Maga Warrior: Representative Elise Stefanik Of New York

When Ms. Stefanik first came to the House in 2014 as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress, she was viewed as a rising star in the mold of Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, who had hired her to work on his 2012 campaign for vice president.

She presented herself as a moderate pragmatist willing to work with Democrats and hoping to expand the partys appeal. When Mr. Trumps star began to rise in the Republican Party, she remained so skeptical of his inflammatory style that she refused to say his name in 2016 when she rolled out a tepid endorsement of her partys presidential nominee.

But she has undergone a profound political metamorphosis. Ms. Stefanik is now one of the former presidents most vociferous and aggressive defenders in Congress. She became the No. 3 House Republican in May 2021 after the party ousted Ms. Cheney from the post for her vocal criticism of Mr. Trump.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott

Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott, endorsed by Trump in his run for a third four-year term, fended off Democratic former U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke in the midterms.

Abbott, 65, has pursued increasingly conservative policies during his second term, opposing COVID-19 vaccine and mask mandates. He signed the most restrictive abortion ban of any U.S. state into law and is building a new barrier on the border with Mexico.

Although long rumored to be a potential 2024 candidate, Abbott has not addressed the issue publicly for some time.

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Other Names: Could Trump Be Speaker

Several other Republicans have had their names tossed out, including Reps. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., Kevin Hern, R-Okla., and Jim Banks, R-Ind. former Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y. and Trump, who got a vote for the first time on Thursday — from Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla.

None of those lawmakers are anticipated to actually wield the speaker’s gavel and Trump, in particular, would almost certainly never receive a single Democratic vote or support from some moderate and blue-state Republicans, let alone be inclined to assume the role.

As with Upton or Amash as alternatives, Trump-as-speaker would be possible because the Constitution doesn’t specify that the person be a current member or member-elect. The House is thought to technically be able to chose whomever it wants as speaker.

The fact that any of these names are being bandied about underscores the unpredictability of the speakership contest and some cracks in unity among the McCarthy renegades.

ABC News’ Katherine Faulders, Benjamin Siegel and Will Steakin contributed to this report.

Question6 Overall Do You Think The Country Is Better Off Or Worse Off Today Than It Was A Year Ago

Michelle Obama is the popular choice to run for president in 2020 ...
                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoBetter               41%     5%    76%    38%    37%    45%    53%    25%Worse                52     94     14     56     56     48     44     70SAME             5      1      7      4      4      5      1      3DK/NA                 3      -      2      2      3      2      2      3                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspBetter               44%    43%    37%    40%    30%    38%    34%    67%    42%Worse                44     51     58     56     65     58     61     24     50SAME             8      4      4      2      2      2      2      7      4DK/NA                 4      2      2      2      3      2      2      2      4

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Question3 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way The Democrats In Congress Are Handling Their Job

                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoApprove              30%     5%    64%    23%    24%    35%    38%    21%Disapprove           60     93     28     66     66     54     58     69DK/NA                10      2      8     10     10     10      5     10                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspApprove              24%    35%    30%    33%    19%    33%    26%    53%    26%Disapprove           56     57     65     62     73     58     65     37     63DK/NA                20      8      6      5      8      9      8     10     12

George Santos Names Another Well

Rep.-elect George Santos , who has been knee-deep in controversy over his apparent affinity for liesand falsehoods, named a fellow fib pusher,Donald Trump, as an inspiration for his initial run for Congress in 2020.

Santos named the former president as a source of inspiration in a 2021 clip shared by Twitter account @PatriotTakes, which monitors right-wing extremism, on Wednesday.

The New York Republican told Lara Trump, the former presidents daughter-in-law, that Donald Trump who reportedly made more than 30,000 false or misleading claims during his one term in office is the most organic president in the history of our nation.

shocked the nation, shocked the world, and these people love him. Why? It took a billionaire to become… the little mans president, Santos said of Trumps 2016 election win.

He later added: I went to business school because of Donald Trump. I ran for Congress because I thought Donald Trump, if he made it, it was time for everyone to have an opportunity. The Democrats cant take that away.

George Santos to Lara Trump in 2021: I went to business school because of Donald Trump. I ran for Congress because I thought Donald Trump, if he made it, it was time for everyone to have an opportunity.


Santos initially ran to replace Rep. Tom Suozzi in 2020, however, he later lost to the incumbent by a margin of roughly 46,000 votes.

You can watch Santos refreshed opinion on Jan. 6 below.

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Trump Who Gop Senators Rave Over A Potential Tim Scott Presidential Run

The South Carolina senator isn’t committing to a White House bid yet, but his colleagues think he’d have a shot in a possibly tough field.

Sen. Tim Scott has carved out a unique lane in the GOP, well-liked by mainstream leaders but never publicly at odds with Trump world, even when he’s offered halted criticism of the former president. | Scott Olson/Getty Images

12/12/2022 04:30 AM EST

Joni Ernst is very excited about a potential Tim Scott presidential run. John Cornyn would advise him to go for it. And John Barrasso said it doesnt get any better than Tim Scott.

Even Sen. Lindsey Graham, who spent much of Donald Trumps presidency sticking to his side, said hes intrigued by the possibility of a Scott presidential bid in 2024 and wants to see what Tim does before he makes any endorsements.

Scott would bring something to the table on day one, Graham said, adding his South Carolina colleague has one of the most compelling stories of any Republican out there.

Scotts not personally chatty about the prospect of a 2024 presidential run, declining to talk and directing questions to his staff. But his Republican colleagues are buzzing about his massive reelection victory this year, rising national profile, substantial fundraising hauls and cross-country travels for other candidates. And theyre happy to talk him up.

Of course, the 2024 Republican presidential primary is already shaping up to be a tough fight.

Although, he noted, Scott has never said as much.

What Happens If The House Can’t Pick A Speaker

WATCH: The first 2020 presidential debate

On Wednesday, Rep. Kevin McCarthy lost three more votes to be the speaker of the House, with his leadership bid held up by a faction of hardliners seeking greater influence in the lawmaking process and hoping to impose a variety of rules that would have the effect of weakening the position. The holdouts have coalesced behind Rep. Byron Donalds .

It is the first time since 1923 that the majority party has needed to hold multiple ballots to select a speaker, and the spectacle has left the GOP in disarray. With no obvious path to resolving the standoff, what might happen now? Here’s everything you need to know about potential scenarios for the next speaker of the House:

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