Donald Trump Has Become More Popular Since The January 6 Capitol Attack
Former President Donald Trump still manages to dominate the political headlines, nearly a year and half after leaving office. On Thursday, the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol used its first prime-time hearing to make the case that Trump used his power to try and overturn the 2020 election result.
The committee faces political headwinds, however. A majority of Americans now believe that Trump was either not or only partially responsible for the rioters who overtook the Capitol, according to a recent NBC News poll. Thats up from 47% in January 2021.
Trumps improving political position is where we begin today.
Special Counsel Investigating Mar
For the second time in five years, Trump’s legal fate rests with a prosecutor appointed by the Justice Department to pursue possible criminal charges.
Trump avoided prosecution in 2019, after then-Attorney General William Barr concluded there was insufficient evidence to charge Trump with obstruction during a nearly two-year investigation of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, despite damning findings by Justice special counsel Robert Mueller.
Last month, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed former longtime Justice official, Jack Smith, to manage dual investigations involving the former president: a multi-faceted campaign to subvert the 2020 election and a separate examination of Trump’s unauthorized retention of tranches of classified documents, including hundreds of sensitive records seized during an unprecedented August search of his Florida estate.
Within days of his appointment, Smith’s team issued a flurry of subpoenas to election officials in key battleground states where Trump’s team waged unsuccessful challenges to overturn President Joe Biden’s election.
More:Department of Justice special counsel issues subpoenas in Trump probes
Fact Check: Is Donald Trump’s Popularity ‘through The Roof’ Since Fbi Raid
Donald Trump’s war of words following the raid on his Mar-a-Lago residence has been as much a part of the story as the findings of the FBI search.
The former president’s accusations have included that the bureau planted evidence, that the raid was a search for Hillary Clinton emails, as well as making calls for a “new election” that could reinstate him.
Despite the real possibility of prosecution, Trump has also said that the raid, far from damaging his reputation, has actually propped up his popularity.
The Claim
A tweet posted on September 1, 2022, included a video in which Donald Trump said his poll numbers had “gone through the roof” because of the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.
Trump this morning on the search: My poll numbers have gone through the roof because of it. Ive never been involved in an event thats driven me up like this.
Ron Filipkowski
The Facts
It’s not clear which polls Trump is referring to. As he no longer serves as a political leader, and has not officially confirmed his intention to run for office in 2024, there are fewer live trackers of his approval ratings, as there were when he was president.
Most polls are published through think tanks and media outlets which may have their own political leanings and/or choose to work with a polling company that is more likely to represent groups of one political persuasion.
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Charging Decisions Looming In Atlanta
Some of the most aggressive investigative steps taken against Trump have involved an unlikely pursuer.
Atlanta-area District Attorney Fani Willis has forced some of Trump’s closest aides and allies to appear before a grand jury examining a range of possible offenses: election fraud, false statements, conspiracy, oath of office violations, racketeering and election-related violence.
More:Trump ally Lindsey Graham must testify in Georgia grand jury investigation, federal judge rules
While the inquiry started with Trump’s Jan. 2, 2021, telephone call in which the former president urged Georgia’s top election official to “find 11,780 votes” to tilt the 2020 statewide election in his favor, the inquiry has since morphed into a sprawling examination of election fraud and other targets, including Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani.
The district attorney had expected to make decisions on possible charges before the end of 2022, but a number of legal challenges pressed by key grand jury witnesses pushed late into the year.
Among issues yet to be resolved: whether Trump will be subpoenaed before the investigative panel.
A Brookings Institution analysis of the Willis investigation, co-authored by Norm Eisen, a special counsel to the House Judiciary Committee during Trump’s first impeachment, concluded that the inquiry represents perhaps the most serious threat to Trump.
“We conclude that Trump is at substantial risk of criminal prosecution in Fulton County ,” the report found.
Relax A Trump Comeback In 2024 Is Not Going To Happen
Weve seen this presidents type before. They always fade away.
Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images
12/10/2020 04:30 AM EST
Altitude is a column by POLITICO founding editor John Harris, offering weekly perspective on politics in a moment of radical disruption.
Donald Trump lost the presidency, but his opponents so far have not achieved the victory they want most: A fatal puncturing of the Trump movement, a repudiation so complete that it severs his astonishing grip on supporters and leaves him with no choice but to slink offstage and into the blurry past.
For now, Trump dominates conversations about both present and future. His outlandish claims that he won the election except for comprehensive fraud have helped raise more than $200 million since Election Day. Many of his partisans share his dream of recapturing the presidency in 2024. For those who despise him, to paraphrase a famous Democratic speech, it seems clear the work goes on, the cause endures, the fear still lives, and the nightmare shall never die.
Except it will die most likely with more speed and force than looks possible today.
There are three primary reasons to be deeply skeptical that Trumps moment of dominating his party and public consciousness will continue long after Jan. 20.
This brings the mind back to the figure who is the most vivid antecedent of Trump: Joe McCarthy.
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Civil Lawsuit Weighs On Trump Family
Trumps third White House campaign also is shadowed by a massive civil lawsuit filed in September by New York Attorney General Letitia James.
The lawsuit accuses Trump, his companies and his three oldest children of tax fraud and other charges based on allegations that Trump repeatedly overstated his financial assets to win lower rates from lenders and insurers than he otherwise would have received.
The Trumps have denied the allegations and have moved to have the case dismissed.
They are also appealing a ruling by Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron to appoint former federal court judge Barbara Jones to monitor some Trump Organization financial decisions while the case proceeds. However, the Trumps withdrew a motion to delay the case until the monitor issue is decided. Both sides in the case also agreed that Jones would not oversee financial decisions of Ivanka Trump, the former presidents daughter.
Engoron has set a tentative trial date for Oct. 2.
More:What to know about the NY attorney general’s lawsuit against former President Donald Trump
Democrats Get A Reminder: Their Base Is Not Very Liberal
The other big political story of this week happened about as far away from Washington, DC, as you can get in the contiguous United States. Progressive San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin got recalled on Tuesday night. At the same time, in the nonpartisan primary for Los Angeles mayor, progressive US Rep. Karen Bass was forced into a November runoff by businessman Rick Caruso.
Both results showed the potency of a tough-on-crime message, even in Democratic strongholds, as I discussed earlier this week.
But they also demonstrate that Democrats overall arent anywhere near as liberal as many progressives wish they were.
Take a look at a CNN/SSRS poll from earlier this year. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 64% identified as moderate or conservative. Just 17% said they were very liberal, with the remainder indicating they were somewhat liberal.
Other polling isnt nearly as dramatic, though it makes the same point. Summer 2021 data from the Pew Research Center poll for instance showed that 15% of Democrats were very liberal, while 52% were either moderate , conservative or very conservative . The 2020 general election exit poll showed that just 42% of Biden voters were liberal, while 58% were moderate or conservative.
Its no wonder then that even in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, which Biden won by over 50 points, progressives are far from shoo-ins.
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Views Of Donald Trump Four Ways
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,399 registered voters nationwide from Sept. 6 to 14, 2022. Questions regarding Mr. Trumps actions after the election and whether he has committed crimes were each asked of half the sample.
That level of Trump support has effectively been unchanged since the last Times/Siena poll, which was fielded in July amid televised hearings by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol. It was also fundamentally similar to levels of support Times/Siena polls and other surveys found in recent years.
The publics view of Mr. Trumps fight against the election results also remained largely unchanged, with 54 percent in the most recent survey saying his actions posed a threat to democracy and 38 percent saying he had just exercised his right to contest the election.
And roughly half of voters said they thought Mr. Trump had committed serious federal crimes, while 38 percent thought he had not. That was similar to the responses from July, when respondents were asked more specifically about Mr. Trumps actions in the aftermath of the 2020 election.
Poll: Ron Desantis Significantly Outpolling Donald Trump
- Poll: Ron DeSantis Significantly Outpolling Donald Trump
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is reaching far beyond the boundaries of the Sunshine State to take command of the Republican Party nationally, if he wants it, according to a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll of registered voters.
Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters and independents who identified as either conservative or very conservative said they want DeSantis to run for president, and 56% of those same voters said they prefer him to former President Donald Trump.
Theres a new Republican sheriff in town, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. DeSantis outpolls Trump not only among the general electorate, but also among these Republican-leaning voters who have been the former presidents base. Republicans and conservative independents increasingly want Trumpism without Trump.
In a hypothetical matchup, DeSantis also leads President Joe Biden 47%-43% among all voters, with 7% undecided, 2% indicating they would vote for someone else, 1% saying they wouldnt vote, and 1% refusing a response. Biden easily defeats Trump 47%-40% among all voters, with 5% indicating someone else, 4% saying they would not vote, 4% undecided, and 1% refusing a response.
Trumps approval rating now stands at just 30%, compared to 46% for Biden.
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The Aftermath Of The 2022 Midterm Elections
A moment of reflection.In the aftermath of the midterms, Democrats and Republicans face key questions about the future of their parties. With the House and Senate now decided, heres where things stand:
Bidens tough choice.President Biden, who had the best midterms of any president in 20 years as Democrats maintained a narrow hold on the Senate, feels buoyant after the results. But as he nears his 80th birthday, he confronts a decision on whether to run again.
Is Trumps grip loosening?Ignoring Republicans concerns that he was to blame for the partys weak midterms showing, Donald J. Trump announced his third bid for the presidency. But some of his staunchest allies are already inching away from him.
G.O.P leaders face dissent.After a poor midterms performance, Representative Kevin McCarthy and Senator Mitch McConnell faced threats to their power from an emboldened right flank. Will the divisions in the partys ranks make the G.O.P.-controlled House an unmanageable mess?
A new era for House Democrats.Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the first woman to serve in the post and the face of House Democrats for two decades, will not pursue a leadership post in the next Congress. A trio of new leaders is poised to take over their caucuss top ranks.
Divided government.What does a Republican-controlled House and a Democratic-run Senate mean for the next two years? Most likely a return to the gridlock and brinkmanship that have defined a divided federal government in recent years.
Examining The Popularity Of Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s historic rise as a political candidate has the pundits and pollsters searching for explanations.
Pollster Nate Silver has three theories for the rise of Donald Trump.
1. Trump reflects a populist revolt against the establishment. Two losses to Barack Obama has soured many Republicans on the establishment choice.
2. There is a vacuum at the top of the party. This is an irony since the GOP has swept local and state races in recent years.
Nevertheless, there was no single obvious candidate leading the pack. Plus, the increase in proportional voting in the early primaries means that one candidate is less likely to run away with the race.
3. Trump is a media creation. This is not a matter of policy or politics, but his charisma and his previous reality show experience plays into TV and social media culture.
Trump is quotable to a fault and has managed to make himself the story of the week without any apparent negative effects in Republican primary polls.
A DEMOCRATIC THEORY
Another interesting theory comes from David Axelrod, once Obama’s political adviser. Axelrod notes that voters tend to turn to the opposite chief traits of the president in office.
Therefore, George W. Bush was the opposite of Bill Clinton and Obama was the opposite of Bush.
Now Trump is the opposite of Obama.
While Obama is cool and calculated, Trump is hot and bombastic. While Obama leads from behind, Trump leads from far ahead.
WHAT TRUMP SUPPORTERS LIKE
TRUMP: NATIONAL REVIEW’S CRITICISM
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Americans Top Priority For The New Congress And Finding Common Ground Amid Partisanship
Out of a list of issues that might be priorities for the next Congress, inflation surfaced as the single most important issue for 31 percent of U.S. adults, and was especially important to Republicans, independents, white men who arent college graduates and Trump supporters. That maintains a monthslong trend of voters picking inflation as the leading issue ahead of the midterm elections.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
In the new poll, preserving democracy was the second-most important priority among all Americans, as well as the top issue for Democrats, white people who graduated from college, Baby Boomers, members of the Silent Generation and Biden voters.
Its No. 2 rank on the list of priorities may belie a more widespread concern: Thinking about the issues that divide the country, eight out of 10 Americans say there is a serious threat to the future of the nations democracy. That concern is reflected across political parties, generational divides, race, geography, income and education and is on par with how Americans felt after Trump supporters led an attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
These latest numbers are disheartening and show the fissures in our democracy that have existed for several decades, Democratic strategist Joel Benenson said.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President
If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Donald
Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.
The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.
While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.
Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.
Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.
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More People Give Congress Credit For Getting Work Done But Arent Optimistic About The Future
After the Democratic-led Congress forged legislative breakthroughs on infrastructure, climate change, gun safety and same-sex marriage, about a quarter of Americans 24 percent said this body has done more than other recent sessions. Thats up from 15 percent in 2018 and the biggest thumbs-up Americans have given Congress productivity since October 1998.
Despite the significant jump, that opinion is still the minority: 40 percent of Americans say Congress has done less than others in recent years, and a third of U.S. adults say members of this Congress have been about as productive as their predecessors.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Pessimism seems to be the default trend in U.S. politics, said Stuart Rothenberg, a senior editor for Inside Elections.
People dont trust politicians at all, he said. The public is sick and tired of promises, and theyve watched politicians do their political dances and be hypocritical. They dont expect very much.
READ MORE:Trump rebuked for call to terminate Constitution over 2020 election results
Some polls have suggested Trumps popularity may be sliding amid recent controversies, and a number of prominent Trump-backed Republican candidates failed last month to win their campaigns, raising questions about the vitality of the reelection bid he launched in mid-November. But Republican strategist Olivia Troye said it is too soon to write off Trump, adding, Weve been there before.
