Arms Controllers Didnt End The Cold War
After Trumps first year in power, Americans generally understood that his character was unlikely to change. After 42 years in power, many Iranians understand even more clearly that the character of the Islamic Republic is unlikely to change. Virtually all of the conduct the regime has exhibited since its inceptionhostage taking; the cultivation of regional militias; the persecution of women, religious minorities, LGBTQ people, and free thinkershave proceeded with the same intensity. Tehrans official slogan of Death to America has also continued uninterrupted throughout both Republican and Democratic U.S. administrations. In the words of former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, Arms controllers didnt end the Cold War with the Soviet Union; democrats inside Russia and other Soviet republics did. Similarly, the U.S.-Iran cold war will likely be concluded not by American diplomats but by Iranian democrats.
For this reason, the Biden presidency presents both an opportunity and a challenge to Tehrans leadership. A revival of the nuclear deal might help reverse Irans economic decline, but it would also make it more difficult for the Islamic Republic to continue blaming the United States for its myriad failures. As Kylie Moore-Gilbert, an Australian academic recently released from captivity in Iran, told me, So many people in prison were breathing a sigh of relief that Trump lost the election. The Revolutionary Guards, however, were undoubtedly disappointed.
Trump Sees Potential Political Gain From War With Iran
There are a host of reasons why Iran hawks may have pushed Trump to escalate the conflict and one consideration might be purely political.;
Notably, Trump repeatedly argued that former President Barack Obama was planning to go to war with Iran in 2011 and 2012 in order to boost his approval ratings and win reelection.;
“He’s weak, and he’s ineffective,” Trump said of Obama in 2011. “So I believe that he will attack Iran sometime prior to the election, because he thinks that’s the only way he can get elected.”
The prediction, which didn’t materialize, suggest Trump once believed war with Iran has the potential to help him politically in an election year.
Donald J. Trump
John Haltiwanger contributed to this story.;
Us Senate Votes To Curb Trump’s War Powers On Iran
US President Donald Trump’s ability to wage war on Iran without congressional approval has been limited in a Senate bill passed by his fellow Republicans.
The Iran war powers resolution was approved by a vote of 55-45 – hours after Mr Trump warned that it would make America less safe from Iran.
The House passed a version of the bill in January, after Mr Trump ordered the killing of a top Iranian general.
Mr Trump is expected to veto the bill once it reaches the White House.
On Thursday eight Republicans bucked the president’s party, which has a majority in the Senate, to vote in favour of forcing Mr Trump to consult with Congress before conducting military operations against Iran.
A day before the vote, Mr Trump tweeted: “It is very important for our Country’s SECURITY that the United States Senate not vote for the Iran War Powers Resolution.”
“We are doing very well with Iran and this is not the time to show weakness… If my hands were tied, Iran would have a field day. Sends a very bad signal. The Democrats are only doing this as an attempt to embarrass the Republican Party.”
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What About Current Us
Last month’s US assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, believed to be Iran’s second most powerful man, sent tensions between the two countries soaring and raised fears of an all-out war.
Iran retaliated by attacking a US base in Iraq, causing traumatic brain injuries to 109 US service personnel.
Washington and Tehran have long been foes.
Problems can be traced to at least 1979, when Iran’s US-backed shah was overthrown and the country became an Islamic republic.
That year, amidst the fallout from the revolution, dozens of Americans were taken hostage inside the US embassy in the capital Tehran. Relations have been frosty ever since.
There were signs of a diplomatic thaw in 2015, when Iran agreed a landmark deal to limit its nuclear programme, allaying international concerns. It did so in return for the lifting of tough economic sanctions.
But Mr Trump abandoned the deal in 2018, reinstating US sanctions against Iran.
Forgetting Iraq Republicans Thirst For War Against Iran
Of the many oddities of the Republican challengers to President Obama, the most serious is their vow to go to war with Iran. This is now such a common staple of GOP rhetoric in the campaign trail that it’s scarcely newsworthy when yet another White House aspirant thumps the war drums.
Only Ron Paul, of course, has disparaged the impulse to attack Iran. Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich have all in one way or another vowed military action against the ayatollahs.
The war cries come at a peculiar moment: we have just finished Operation Iraqi Freedom, another attempt to punish an authoritarian regime for allegedly building weapons of mass destruction. The results of that war are plain: no weapons found, a half million or more Iraqi deaths as a result of the war, five million displaced, and a price to the U.S. of $3 trillion, thousands of dead, tens of thousands wounded, and hundreds of thousands suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder.
This grisly outcome, so devastating for Iraq and costly to America, tells us something about what a war with Iran would look like. Not that Iran has much military prowess: the New York City Policy Department probably has about as much firepower in its arsenal. But Iran has other means.
Iran can stir actions against U.S. troops in Afghanistan and exacerbate the tense political situation in Iraq as well.
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What Is The War Powers Resolution
It is a law Congress enacted in 1973 overriding President Richard M. Nixons veto in an attempt to regain control over war decisions that had eroded during the Cold War.
Although the Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war, the United States military kept a large standing force deployed around the world as World War II gave way to the Cold War. Presidents, invoking their role as commander in chief, had directed those forces to launch or escalate wars, including in Korea and Vietnam.
One part says presidents may only introduce forces into hostilities after Congress has authorized using force or if the nation has been attacked. No subsequent president has respected that narrow list of when he may unilaterally dispatch forces into combat.
Another part requires presidents to consult with Congress before deploying troops into actual or imminent hostilities. Most presidents have obeyed this, but Mr. Trump did not before ordering the Suleimani strike.
Yet another part important here says if a president deploys combat troops without authorization, the deployment must end after 60 days unless lawmakers approve it in the interim. It also empowers Congress to direct the president to terminate the operation before that deadline.
House Republicans Urge Biden Not To Reenter Iran Nuclear Deal As Is
WASHINGTON – Today, Congressman Lee Zeldin , member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, led 120 Republican members of the House of Representatives in urging President Joe Biden not to reenter the;Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action , otherwise known as the;Iran Nuclear Deal, as is.;House Democrats previously called on President Biden to reenter the Iran Nuclear Deal;without first securing any new restrictions, conditions or other updates. Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently demanded that U.S. sanctions be lifted before Tehran returns to the negotiating table.;
For reasons that include expiring sunset clauses, flaws with the verification arrangement, and many other dynamics, attempting to reenter the Iran Nuclear Deal as is would be a strategic U.S. foreign policy blunder,;said Congressman Lee Zeldin.;
A signed PDF of the letter is available;here.;
Full text of the letter is as follows:;
Dear President Joe Biden,
The decision not to recertify the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2017 was in Americas best interests. Even if the United States never withdrew from the deal, poorly construed sunset provisions baked into the deal would now be upon us, meaning Iran would be well on its way to obtaining a nuclear weapon while having violated not only the spirit but the letter of the deal.
President Obama said that the Iran Nuclear Agreement was not based on trust, but verification. How can the U.S. sign off on a verification regime its never read?
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Why Do Republicans Want War With Iran Instead Of A Peaceful Solution
Stephanie said:they really think Iran will be PEACEFUL. Lets go all the way back to Jimmy Carter.Just like under Clinton he wanted to find peaceful and then when he left office. NINE months later we had 9/11these people are going to get us killed, AGAIN. Hopefully it won’t be more than 3000 the next time
Tipsycatlover said:The mistake is in imagining that a country that has a national slogan Death to America is peaceful. The country that has vowed that the islamic flag will fly over the white house isn’t peaceful.The peaceful intent of Iran exists only in the minds of democrats. Last week this peaceful country was practicing on how to sink an American aircraft carrier.
This circus is going to grind to a halt, the music is going to stop, and they’re going to wish they had just left us alone.Free Men
This circus is going to grind to a halt, the music is going to stop, and they’re going to wish they had just left us alone.Free Men
Odium said:Why do you want more war,more young American men and women killed,THOUSANDS if not Hundreds of Thousands injured some beyond repair…why are you so interested in having a war when we can peacefully solve this problem? I just can’t see what would make someone WANT war. So explain it please.
Southern Democrats formed organizations that violently intimidated blacks and Republicans who tried to win political power. The most prominent of these, the Ku Klux Klan, was formed in Pulaski, Tennessee, in 1865. YOU LOST!!!
Republicans Rally Behind Trumps Iran Strike But Think War Is Now More Likely
Exclusive polling data shows the presidents base overwhelmingly supports the killing of Qassem Soleimani, but some are wary of a deeper conflict.
01/08/2020 05:04 AM EST
Republicans of all stripes are standing solidly in support of President Donald Trumps decision to kill a top Iranian generaleven though some believe it makes war more likely.
Conversations with influential conservative figures in recent days, buttressed by exclusive polling data taken before Tuesday’s Iranian missile attack in Iraq, indicate that many in Trumps base see last weeks airstrike on Qassem Soleimani as a necessary move against Irans Islamist regime. Soleimani was the mastermind behind numerous attacks on American troops and others in Iraq and beyond.
Many in the Republican cognoscenti compared his killing to former President Barack Obamas decision to take out Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden. While a handful of Trump allies notably Fox News host Tucker Carlson and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paulhave criticized the Soleimani strike, others are justifying it on grounds that it is a limited move. Thats a key point given Trumps past promises to disentangle the U.S. from Middle East wars.
I think people are genuinely greatly pleased that the president has taken action against this monster who has killed probably over 700 Americans directly, said former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Why anybody would think this is less-than-stellar is beyond me.
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How To Win The Cold War With Iran
The Islamic Republic needs America as an enemy. America needs a strategy.
About the author: Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East. He is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University.
Before he became president, Joe Biden spent decades seeking reconciliation in the Middle East. By his second term as vice president, his frustration with feuding nations and factions was palpable. Notwithstanding all of the hundreds of hours I and others spent with each of their leaders, they didnt resolve a core problem of how the hell theyre gonna live together, he toldThe New Yorker in 2014. We cant want unity and coherence more than they want it.
Today Bidens presidential mandate is rebuilding unity and coherence in America, but Middle East crises will invariably beckon him. Foremost among these potential entanglements is an Iranian regimeeager for sanctions relief, but committed to maintaining its cold war with the United Statesthat has played an outsize role in every presidential administration since Jimmy Carters.
Biden Should Think Big On Iran
Iran has long been a useful political punching bag for both political parties. Its governments often deplorable actions make it easily vilified. Wealthy donors;and powerful special interest groups reward politicians who toe;a hawkish line on the country.;
The American public, however, is disenchanted with endless wars across the political spectrum. Most Americans want to avoid new wars,;end existing ones;and take U.S. foreign policy in a more peaceful direction.;A recent poll by YouGov and The Economist also found that nearly two-thirds of Americans support direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program,;including amassive 84%;of Biden voters.
Trump’s;legacy:;Iran assassination highlights Biden’s national security challenges;
War with Iran will kill any hope of ending Americas militarized approach to foreign policy and investing more resources at home. Decades of endless war have seen the Pentagon funded at staggering levels while funds to deal with the biggest threats to the security and livelihoods of Americans, from the pandemic to climate change to poverty, are grievously insufficient. There is no military solution to Americas impasse with Iran, and pursuing one will come at the expense of addressing real threats to ordinary Americans.
Biden and congressional Democrats must pursue serious diplomacy with Iran and use the 2015 nuclear deal as a model to resolve other U.S-Iran disputes.
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Senate Approves Iran War Powers Resolution In Bipartisan Vote
The 55 to 45 vote was an effort to restrain President Trump after tensions escalated last month with Iran. Mr. Trump has promised to veto the measure.
This resolution is going to pass with a bipartisan majority of senators and support, a rarity these days. If this is purely an attempt to embarrass the president, well, its going to be a bipartisan one. I fear that by keeping Congress, and the American people in the dark, President Trump may be directing military operations in a manner that doesnt stand up to public scrutiny. When youre forced to consult with Congress, and when Congress has the power to declare war, quick and sloppy thinking evaporates. Those of us in this body, and maybe especially those of us in this body who didnt wear the uniform and didnt serve, we have a special obligation to make sure that we deliberate, and deliberate carefully before we send troops into harms way. This bill thats in front of us that were debating today will not become law. It will not be part of the body of law, which we live by. It will be vetoed. The yeas are 55, the nays are 45. The joint resolution, as amended, is passed.
WASHINGTON The Senate voted on Thursday to require that President Trump seek congressional authorization before taking further military action against Iran, as Democrats joined forces with eight Republicans to try to rein in the presidents war-making powers weeks after he escalated hostilities with Tehran.
Does The Resolution Have Enough Political Support
There are reasons to be doubtful.
Even if such a resolution passes both chambers, it seems inevitable that Mr. Trump would veto it. Overriding that veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which would require significant numbers of Republicans to break with him.
Last year, majorities in both chambers tried to use the War Powers Resolution to force Mr. Trump to end American support for Saudi Arabias intervention in Yemens civil war. But Mr. Trump vetoed it, and an override vote in the Senate failed 53 to 45, with only seven Republicans joining Democrats in challenging the president.
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Jeb Bush Like Many Republicans Wants A War With Iran
Like all Republican presidential candidates, Jeb Bush is opposed to the world powers nuclear agreement with Iran, and has denounced it in withering terms as a bad, horrific deal.;Late last week, he offered some valuable perspective on what counts in his mind as a good deal in global affairs, when, speaking at a foreign policy forum in Iowa, he;argued,;Ill tell you, taking out Saddam Hussein turned out to be a pretty good deal.
Because almost nobody in America thinks the Iraq War was a particularly good deal, the political media is holding his comment up as a gaffe. But against the backdrop of GOP opposition to the Iran agreement, its much more revelatory than that. It crystallizes the increasingly open secret in the world of foreign affairs that the pretty good deal we got in Iraq and the better deal Iran foes allude to so frequently are actually the same deal. Not in every particularnobody of any prominence on the right is currently arguing for a wholesale invasion and occupation of Iran. But forced regime change was what we got in Iraq, and its what the supporters of the war there ultimately want in Iran.
But Bush has now rolled out, and adhered to, a tangle of views that could be mistaken for his brothersvoid the Iran agreement and possibly attack Iran, rescind President Barack Obamas 2009 executive order banning torture, and possibly send thousands of U.S. troops back into Iraqand none of them is even remotely controversial among his co-partisans.