In Illinois A Test Of Trumps Endorsement Clout In Incumbent
The race in the 15th Congressional District pits a Trump-endorsed firebrand against a more moderate colleague
U.S. House of Representatives
Reps. Rodney Davis and Mary Miller
The Republican primary election in Illinois redrawn 15th Congressional District this week is set to serve as the latest showcase of the GOPs internal divisions and former President Donald Trumps efforts to remain a kingmaker within the party.
The heavily rural, deep red seat pits Rep. Rodney Davis , who previously held a much more competitive seat, against Rep. Mary Miller , a Freedom Caucus member endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
Trump was in Illinois over the weekend to stump for Miller at a rally that drew thousands of attendees.
Millers remarks at the event provided another jolt to the campaign speaking about the Supreme Courts decision on Friday to overturn Roe v. Wade, Miller appeared to call the decision eliminating the federal right to abortion a victory for white life. Her campaign said later she intended to say right to life, as was written in her prepared remarks.
It was the latest gaffe from the freshman congresswoman, who had appeared at a rally in Washington, D.C., the day before the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, where she invoked Adolf Hitler in a speech in which she said that the German leader was right on one thing. He said, Whoever has the youth has the future.
The local strategist who spoke to JI was more skeptical of the influence that rally might have.
‘a Very Feral Intelligence’
If Trump has to run against DeSantis in the 2024 Republican primary — or former Vice President Mike Pence, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson or others — it won’t be the first time he’s faced such competition.
As soon as he launched his 2016 campaign in June 2015, Trump broke from other Republicans by voicing views on policy and people that were considered outside the GOP’s tent or were outright insulting, as when he said some Mexican migrants were “good people” and some were “rapists.”
He quickly found himself in the most crowded GOP primary in decades, alongside former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and more.
Trump relied on his decades of celebrity and touted his business acumen rather than any time spent in the “swamp” of national politics. He bulldozed his competition with a mix of unorthodox populist policies, which had largely been absent from contemporary conservatism, and ceaseless attacks.
“Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that?” Trump once said on the trail of competitor Carly Fiorina, a former technology executive.
“He was out there hunting in the field, and he’d find the next person and take them out. He has a very feral intelligence at doing that,” said David Kochel, an adviser to Bush’s 2016 campaign.
A candidate’s appetite for such onslaughts must be part of the decision over whether to challenge him, those who helped campaign against Trump said.
Former President Donald Trump
Strategists and party leaders have said Trump, 76, remains the odds-on favorite for the Republican nomination in 2024.
But the former president had a mixed record with the candidates he endorsed in the midterm elections and some blame him for Republicans’ failure to capture control of both houses of Congress.
Trump’s candidacy comes as lawsuits over his alleged involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol and his business dealings continue to swirl around him.
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‘no Animosity Except That He Called Me A Swamp Rat’
In an interview at his home in Mesa, Farnsworth, a former state senator, spoke in religious terms as he told Insider about how his own Mormon faith had driven him to come out of retirement to challenge Bowers.
“The whole issue of this race, from my perspective, is that our freedom is being destroyed,” said Farnsworth as he sat with the Book of Mormon open in front of him. “And it’s the people that are prophesied in this book who orchestrated the theft of the election.”
In Farnsworth’s telling, Townsend told him that he was the “only one that can beat Rusty” because of their shared Mormon faith, and he said he was running against his one-time acquaintance largely over dissatisfaction with how he handled the 2020 election.
“I have no doubt in my mind that the election was stolen,” said Farnsworth. “I can’t show you the proof, but I grew up in Arizona, I’ve seen all the evidence, I’ve talked to all these people, and in my heart, I know the election was stolen.”
Farnsworth said that while he agrees that trying to appoint pro-Trump electors might have been a step too far, he thinks the former president genuinely believes he’d won the 2020 election and that it was Bowers’ job to address the widespread lack of faith in the vote, suggesting that he could’ve held hearings to uncover evidence of fraud.
Farnsworth said that if elected, he wants to hold hearings on the issue himself, though he made clear that he doesn’t believe the election itself can be reversed.
In Georgia Several Losses And One Victory
Gov. Brian Kemp easily defeated former Senator David Perdue, Mr. Trumps handpicked candidate, in the Republican primary for governor. Mr. Kemp was a Trump target after he refused to overturn the presidents re-election loss there in 2020. He will face the Democratic nominee, Stacey Abrams, whom he narrowly defeated four years ago.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who refused Mr. Trumps demand that he find additional votes after his 2020 loss, defeated a Trump-backed challenger, Representative Jody Hice, in the Republican primary.
Attorney General Chris Carr defeated John Gordon, a Trump-backed opponent, with more than 73 percent of the vote.
In the Republican primary for an open seat in Georgias Sixth Congressional District, the Trump-backed candidate, Jake Evans, qualified for the June 21 runoff, though he was a distant second to the top vote-getter, Rich McCormick.
The former professional football star Herschel Walker, who was endorsed by Mr. Trump, dominated the Republican primary for Senate. He will face Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat and prolific fund-raiser, in the general election.
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Donald Trump Takes Double Digit Lead In 2024 Republican Primary
Former President Trump is seeing a double-digit lead in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary as potential challengers, including Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin , are polling at one or zero percent, a Morning Consult survey released this week found.
The survey found Trump taking a sizable lead among his potential challengers, as nearly half, 48 percent, of potential GOP voters choose Trump as their nominee.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis comes in a distant second, falling 17 points behind with 31 percent support.
Former Vice President Mike Pence places third with 8 percent support, and the rest of the potential challengers listed fall to three percent or less.
Anti-Trumper and former Rep. Liz Cheney , for instance, garnered just three percent support, followed by former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley and Sen. Ted Cruz , both of whom saw two percent support.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem saw one percent support each, as did former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sen. Tim Scott .
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin saw zero percent support, and one percent also chose someone else:
2024 National Republican Primary
InteractivePolls
The survey also found Trump leading Biden by three points in a head to head matchup, with six percent remaining undecided and 11 percent choosing someone else.
Trump has also taken a jab at Youngkin, mocking his name in November.
With Trump On Sidelines Virginia Gop Set To Pick Midterm Nominees In Swing Districts
By: Graham Moomaw– June 20, 2022 12:05 am
The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Saturday, March 26, 2022. Virginia voters will select GOP candidates Tuesday to run against incumbent Democrats as Republicans try to recapture seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Virginia electing a Republican governor in 2021 for the first time in more than a decade was one of the first major signs of how bad the political vibes were getting for Democrats.
This year, the Virginia GOP is trying to build on Gov. Glenn Youngkins upset victory by flipping a handful of Democratic-controlled congressional districts that could be some of the most hotly contested in the country.
On Tuesday, Republican primary voters will pick their nominees in the two districts expected to be the most competitive in November: the Virginia Beach-anchored, military-heavy 2nd District and the new-look 7th District, which shifted north from the Richmond suburbs and is now based mostly in Prince William, Stafford and Spotsylvania counties.
With inflation high and President Joe Bidens approval numbers low, Republicans see a chance to win back some or all of the three congressional seats they lost in the anti-Trump wave of 2018.
Without a major Trump angle, Tuesdays results will mostly be a test of whether Republican voters agree with GOP leaders and pundits about whos most electable in November or deliver a surprise by picking a lesser-known figure.
You cant read a lot into it, Fredericks said.
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Weighing The Personal Cost Of Combat With Trump
For all the interest many Republicans have in running for president, would-be candidates and their donors, staffers and family members are going to have to decide whether they have the stomach to take on a former president known for having a vindictive streak.
Potential 2024 hopefuls have spent the last two years raising money, giving big speeches and traveling to early states under the thinly veiled cover of helping the party prepare for the midterms or fueling their reelection campaigns. That excuse doesnt work anymore, and further steps toward a presidential race risk direct conflict with Trump.
During the 2016 campaign, Trump mercilessly savaged those who tried to stop him a roster that ranged from the megadonor Ricketts family to former GOP nominee Mitt Romney to two of the partys young stars, Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who ran against him. While some eventually made their way back into Trumps good graces, others never did.
Should Trump indeed decide to run again in 2024, the Republican political class will face a similar decision. While the prospect of defeating Trump may be what some in the party want, they will also have to gauge their comfort level with possible retaliation should he make it back into the White House.
Trump has already hinted that he is ready to go after DeSantis: Speaking to reporters earlier this week, the former president said he was prepared to reveal unflattering information about the governor should he run.
Trump Criticizes Evangelical Leaders For Not Backing His 2024 Presidential Bid
Just days before Donald Trump hosts his first 2024 event in South Carolina, a state whose evangelical population has long played a critical role in its presidential primary, the former president is lashing out at religious conservatives who have declined to endorse his third presidential campaign.
Trumps comments to conservative journalist David Brody in a podcast interview Monday, in which he decried the disloyalty of evangelical leaders who have withheld public support for his campaign, were the latest in a series of bewildering remarks hes made about one of the most critical voting blocs in a Republican primary.
Nobody has ever done more for Right to Life than Donald Trump. I put three Supreme Court justices, who all voted, and they got something that theyve been fighting for 64 years, for many, many years, Trump told Brody, referring to the Supreme Courts overturning of federal abortion rights in Dobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization decision last summer.
Theres great disloyalty in the world of politics and thats a sign of disloyalty, Trump continued, bemoaning evangelical leaders who have declined to support his latest campaign.
Theres no path to the nomination without winning the evangelical vote. Nobody knows that better than President Trump because, to the surprise of almost everyone, he won their support in 2016, said Ralph Reed, executive director of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, who has long been close to the former president.
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Republican Congressman Who Voted To Impeach Trump Ousted In South Carolina
U.S. Rep. Tom Rice addresses reporters during a press conference to unveil the Joseph H. Rainey Room, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, U.S., February 3, 2022. Greg Nash/Pool via REUTERS
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WASHINGTON, June 15 Republican U.S. Representative Tom Rice, who voted to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riot, lost his re-election bid in South Carolina on Tuesday, while a second Republican incumbent targeted by the former president prevailed.
Trump-backed candidate Russell Fry handily defeated Rice, a five-term incumbent who became a prime target in Trumps midterm revenge campaign against perceived political enemies.
Rice was one of 10 congressional Republicans to vote for Trumps impeachment and now is the first of that group to lose re-election. Some others opted not to run.
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The voters have spoken and Tom Rice is coming home, Fry, a state legislator, told supporters in the strongly Republican district he is expected to win in the November general election. Today, Donald Trump won.
Jim Marchant, who falsely claims the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, won the Republican primary election for Nevada secretary of state, Edison Research projected.
In another South Carolina district, freshman U.S. Representative Nancy Mace fended off a challenge from Trump-endorsed opponent Katie Arrington, Edison Research said.
Liz Cheney Uses January 6 Committee Revelations To Refute Trump
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Rep. Liz Cheney and her primary opponent, Harriet Hageman, debated for the first time on Thursday.
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Cheney took on Hagemans stolen 2020 election claims using her expertise from the January 6 committee.
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Cheney cited testimony from members of Trumps inner circle, including Ivanka Trump.
In her first debate against a raft of Republican primary opponents on Thursday night, Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming took on her challengers false claims that the 2020 election was stolen largely by drawing on findings shes helped uncover as a member of the House January 6 committee.
In a debate segment on election integrity, Cheneys main rival former RNC committeewoman Harriet Hageman, who has the backing of former President Donald Trump and most of the House Republican conference that Cheney once led cited Dinesh DSouzas widely-debunked2000 Mules movie.
Hageman went on to say that Zuckerberg money had allowed a private individual to capture our county clerks which was devastating in our swing states.
Responding to Hagemans claims, Cheney touted her own support for voter ID laws while going on the attack.
I also know that the truth matters, and the claims that Mrs. Hageman is making about the 2020 election are the same claims for which the Presidents lead lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, was disbarred, said Cheney. Theyre the same claims for which Sidney Powell has had her law license suspended.
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Senate Gop Privately Roots Against Trump In Ohio Primary
Senate Republicans are privately rooting for former President Trump to fail in Ohio and wouldnt be at all disappointed if someone other than his endorsed candidate, J.D. Vance, wins the states Senate Republican primary Tuesday.
Not all Senate Republicans are rooting for someone other than Vance to win the primary. Sen. Josh Hawley , for example, is an outspoken advocate for Vance, a fellow Yale Law School graduate.
But GOP lawmakers see the wide-open race as a key test of Trumps political influence in Republican primaries and in next years Senate GOP conference, which will have a different flavor after the retirements of Sens. Roy Blunt , Richard Burr , Rob Portman , Richard Shelby and Pat Toomey .
Burr and Toomey voted last year to convict Trump on an impeachment charge of inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
If he doesnt win, we will exploit that for everything its worth and say the Trump endorsement isnt the be-all, end-all it once was and maybe now we can get some breathing room from the craziness, said a senior Senate GOP aide, who said that 70 percent of Senate Republicans share this sentiment, though only few of them would dare to say so publicly.
One Republican senator following the race said some of his colleagues are rooting for anyone but the Trump-backed candidate to win.
Some feel that way, the senator acknowledged but also noted that Hawley has endorsed Vance.
Cruz on Tuesday praised Mandel as a strong candidate.
Election To The Presidency
On November 8, 2016, Trump received 306 pledged electoral votes versus 232 for Clinton. The official counts were 304 and 227 respectively, after defections on both sides. Trump received nearly 2.9 million fewer popular votes than Clinton, which made him the fifth person to be elected president while losing the popular vote. Clinton was ahead nationwide with 65,853,514 votes to 62,984,828 votes .
Trump’s victory was considered a stunning political upset by most observers, as polls had consistently showed Hillary Clinton with a nationwide âthough diminishing âlead, as well as a favorable advantage in most of the competitive states. Trump’s support had been modestly underestimated throughout his campaign, and many observers blamed errors in polls, partially attributed to pollsters overestimating Clinton’s support among well-educated and nonwhite voters, while underestimating Trump’s support among white working-class voters.The polls were relatively accurate, but media outlets and pundits alike showed overconfidence in a Clinton victory despite a large number of undecided voters and a favorable concentration of Trump’s core constituencies in competitive states.
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