New 2020 Voter Data: How Biden Won How Trump Kept The Race Close And What It Tells Us About The Future
As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well.
Now, using a massive sample of validated voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has . It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did notand why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.
How Joe Biden won
Five main factors account for Bidens success.
How Trump kept it close
Despite non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends.
The Contenders Who Competed To Run Against Donald Trump
Within weeks of Donald Trump taking the oath of office as the nations 45th president, challengers began lining up to see who would attempt to unseat him in the 2020 presidential election. The controversial president faced early challenges from within his own party, but by and large, the focus remained on the candidates put forth by the opposing Democratic Party.
During one of the most crowded primary seasons in recent memory, several high-profile Democrats, including multiple sitting senators and rising stars in the party, competed for the partys nomination. Ultimately, it was former vice president Joe Biden who won the partys nomination. He selected Senator Kamala Harris, another primary candidate, as his running mate, and the ticket won the 2020 general election with 51.3% of the vote and 306 electoral votes to 46.9% and 232 electoral votes for the incumbent Trump/Pence ticket.
Heres a look at the Democrats, and even members of Trumps own Republican Party, who ran campaigns looking to unseat the controversial commander-in-chief.
Who Are The Republicans Challenging Trump For 2020 Nomination
Only one candidate is now vying to defeat Trump for Republican nomination in the 2020 presidential race.
While the pool of Democrats vying for the partys presidential nomination was among the largest and most diverse in the history of the United States, President Donald Trump faced a much smaller cadre of challengers for the Republican ticket in 2020.
After two Republicans dropped out, only one opponent remains in the race against Trump. Thats in contrast to the three remaining contenders in the Democratic field, which once had more than two dozen candidates.
In a statement in April, the Republican National Convention said the Republican Party is firmly behind Trump and any effort to challenge the presidents nomination is bound to go absolutely nowhere, prompting criticism that Republican leaders are making it impossible for another candidate to succeed.
Here is a look at the now sole Republican challenging Trump.
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Sen Josh Hawley Of Missouri
Though controversial, Hawley, 41, is a fundraising machine and hes quickly made a name for himself. The blowback Hawley faced for objecting to Bidens Electoral College win included a lost book deal and calls for him to resign from students at the law school where he previously taught. His mentor, former Sen. John Danforth of Missouri, said that supporting Hawley was the biggest mistake Ive ever made in my life.
Still, he brought in more than $1.5 million between Jan. 1 and March 5, according to Axios, and fundraising appeals in his name from the National Republican Senatorial Committee brought in more cash than any other Republican except NRSC Chair Sen. Rick Scott of Florida. Just because youre toxic in Washington doesnt mean you cant build a meaningful base of support nationally.
One Republican strategist compared the possibility of Hawley 2024 to Cruz in 2016. Hes not especially well-liked by his colleagues , but hes built a national profile for himself and become a leading Republican voice opposed to big technology companies.
Hawley and his wife, Erin, have three children. He got his start in politics as Missouri attorney general before being elected to the Senate in 2018. Hawley graduated from Stanford and Yale Law.
Storming Of The Capitol
On January 6, 2021, while was taking place in the United States Capitol, Trump held a rally at , where he called for the election result to be overturned and urged his supporters to take back our country by marching to the Capitol to show strength and fight like hell. Trumps speech started at noon. By 12:30 p.m., rally attendees had gathered outside the Capitol, and at 1 p.m, his supporters pushed past police barriers onto Capitol grounds. Trumps speech ended at 1:10 p.m., the crowd grew larger as more supporters marched on the Capitol. Around 2:15 p.m. the mob broke into the building, disrupting certification and causing the evacuation of Congress. During the violence, Trump posted mixed messages on Twitter and Facebook, eventually tweeting to the rioters at 6 p.m, go home with love & in peace, but describing them as great patriots and very special, while still complaining that the election was stolen. After the mob was removed from the Capitol, Congress reconvened and confirmed the Biden election win in the early hours of the following morning. There were many injuries, and five people, including a Capitol Police officer, died.
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United States Presidential Election
The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post2020 censusreapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden has stated that he intends to run for reelection to a second term, although no official statements have been released as of yet.
In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Former Vice President Mike Pence
Historically, experience as Veep isnt a bad launching pad for the presidency. Six former vice presidents went on to become president, including, of course, President Joe Biden, and an additional five won their partys nomination. For 61-year-old Pence, though, the upside of his time as vice president is more of an open question.
Trumps 2020 pollster Tony Fabrizio found that if the former president doesnt run in the 2024 election, his supporters gravitate most to Pence, DeSantis and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, so there is plenty of support there. But on Jan. 6, when Pence announced Biden as the winner of the 2020 election, he complicated things.
Hes got this tricky position, said Steven Webster, and assistant professor of political science at Indiana University Bloomington. I think increasingly the base of the Republican Party is aligned with Donald Trump, and Mike Pence is really seen with hostility by Trumps base, simply for performing his constitutional duty on the 6th.
Pence appears to be well aware of the predicament. Earlier this month, he published an op-ed voicing his concern over supposed voting irregularities in the 2020 election, though he didnt mention any specifically. Trumps own administration said the election was the most secure in American history.
Pence and his wife, Karen, have three children. Pence is a former conservative radio host who served seven terms in the U.S. House before becoming governor of Indiana.
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The Republican Convention Of 1860
The first national political convention held in Chicago, Illinois, took place at what was called the Wigwama nineteenth century colloquialism for the headquarters of a political campaign. In May 1860, some 12,000 Republican delegates and spectators crowded into the two-story rectangular structure, shown here, to select their candidate for president in the fall election. Music publisher Oliver Ditson and Company of Boston, Massachusetts, produced the The âWigwamâ Grand March after Abraham Lincoln won the Republican Party nomination for president. During the Civil War, Ditson released a number of popular songs, including the Battle Hymn of the Republic.
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The âWigwamâ Grand March. Boston: Oliver Ditson and Company, 1860. Sheet Music. Alfred Whital Stern Collection, Rare Book and Special Collections Division, Library of Congress Digital ID # scsm0202/001
Bookmark this item: //www.loc.gov/exhibits/lincoln/the-run-for-president.html#obj4
President Trump Your Legacy Is Secure Stop The ‘stolen Election’ Rhetoric
As many on the left have pointed out, the 2020 election was less a repudiation of Trump than a narrow loss for a man who proved just unpalatable enough for a critical sliver of his coalition.
Sean Spicer, a former Trump press secretary, told The Post his ex-boss would be an instant front-runner in a 2024 primary. He has a rock-solid base, I just dont think that there is anyone else who even comes close.
Teasing a potential run in 2024 would at the very least ensure Trump stays relevant and in the press for years to come.
If Trump himself passes on the opportunity, his two very political children Don Jr. and Ivanka Trump could also potentially pick up the mantle. Trump Jr. has long acted as an outside surrogate for his father online and in the press and connects strongly with his base. Ivanka, meanwhile, has years of administration experience under her belt as a White House adviser to her father.
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Why Donald Trump Is Republicans Worst Nightmare In 2024
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Earlier this week, amid a rambling attack on the validity of the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump said this: Interesting that today a poll came out indicating Im far in the lead for the Republican Presidential Primary and the General Election in 2024.
this on Trumps future political ambitions from PoliticoTrump is confiding in allies that he intends to run again in 2024 with one contingency: that he still has a good bill of health, according to two sources close to the former president. That means Trump is going to hang over the Republican Party despite its attempts to rebrand during his exile and its blockade of a Trump-centric investigation into Januarys insurrection.new Quinnipiac University national pollhis growing legal and financial entanglementsAs CNN reported on Wednesday nightManhattan prosecutors pursuing a criminal case against former President Donald Trump, his company and its executives have told at least one witness to prepare for grand jury testimony, according to a person familiar with the matter a signal that the lengthy investigation is moving into an advanced stage.
Who Will Run For President From The Republican Party In 2024
The 2024 US presidential elections are slated to be the 60th quadrennial presidential election. Incumbent president Joe Biden has stated that he will be running for re-election to a second term, although no official statements have been revealed yet.
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Republican Candidates Running For The Us 2020 Election
- Bill Weld was married twice and has five children.
- Weld ran for vice-president as a Libertarian on the Gary Johnson ticket in the 2016 presidential election.
- As a conservative, Weld is strongly pro-choice on abortion issues.
The presidential race is on and the candidates are being whittled down to the very few. Who is running on the Republican side? Current President Donald Trump is going for re-election, and the only candidate now challenging him for election as president of the US this coming November 3rd, 2020 is Bill Weld, a former Massachusetts governor.
The Campaign And Election
While the campaign highlighted the fissures in American society, it also underscored the similarities between the two candidates and between the positions advanced by their parties. Both men were self-made millionaires and attributed their own success, as well as the prosperity of the Harding-Coolidge years, to free enterprise and capitalism. They both had strong records on labour support, with Hoover having opposed intervention in labour disputes and Smith having engineered improvements to conditions for city workers in New York City. And both Democratic and Republican platforms called for lower taxes, restriction of immigration, regulation of the emerging radio broadcasting industry, enforcement of Prohibition, and the continuation of the prosperity experienced under the previous administrations.
However, a number of key differences emerged. Largely at the behest of his party, Smith supported the McNary-Haugen farm bill, which proposed grain subsidies in order to raise prices. The bill had twice failed to pass under Coolidge, in part due to Hoovers opposition to it in his capacity as secretary of commerce. He had preferred a program of modernization efforts and the formation of cooperatives instead. While campaigning, he nonetheless vowed to call a special session of Congress to address the issue of farm relief. Additionally, Hoover was granted an endorsement by the National Womens Party because of his support for the Equal Rights Amendment, which Smith opposed.
For These Republicans 2024 Is Just Around The Corner
Mike Pence. Mike Pompeo. Rick Scott. They share big ambitions, but one name hovers above them all
President Biden told reporters last month that his plan is to run for re-election, despite already being the oldest person to have won a presidential election. So, for now at least, the question of who will lead the Democratic ticket in 2024 has been put to rest.
On the Republican side, however, certainty is in short supply. Its beyond early to be talking about the next presidential election but thats only if you arent planning to run. Some Republican candidates have already made trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, and others are laying plans to go, in what often represents the first step in building out a campaign operation in those early-voting states.
And on Wednesday, in a conspicuously forward-looking move, former Vice President Mike Pence announced the formation of a new political organization, Advancing American Freedom, whose advisory board is stacked high with former Trump administration officials and allies. The news came on the same day Simon & Schuster announced that it would publish Pences autobiography as part of a two-book deal.
The G.O.P. is badly fractured, trying to hold together a dominant base of those loyal to former President Donald Trump and a stubborn minority of pro-decorum, anti-Trump conservatives. Anyone looking to grab the Republican mantle will have to find some way of satisfying both camps and maybe even expanding upon them.
Wisconsin Republican Sen Ron Johnson Will Seek Reelection
Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, one of former President Donald Trumps most vocal supporters, says he will seek reelection to a third term
On Location: January 7, 2022
MADISON, Wis. — Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, one of former President Donald Trumps biggest backers, announced Sunday that he will seek reelection in the battleground state, breaking his promise not to seek a third term.
Johnson announced his decision via email two days after a pair of Republicans with knowledge of his decision told The Associated Press that he was close to launching a bid. Johnson over the past year has been a leading voice in downplaying the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and the coronavirus pandemic, in addition to remaining a vocal Trump supporter.
The race is sure to be one of the most hotly contested in the country next year in purple Wisconsin. President Joe Biden won the state by fewer than 21,000 votes in 2020 after a similarly narrow win by Trump in 2016. Johnson won by nearly 5 points in 2010, his first race for office, and then by just over 3 points in 2016. Both times he defeated Democrat Russ Feingold.
Johnson’s announcement that he will run again came a day after Republican Sen. John Thune, of South Dakota, said he would seek a fourth term. No other Senate retirements are likely beyond the five Republicans and one Democrat, Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, who have already announced plans to step down.
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Lincoln Accepts The Nomination
A former Whig, George Ashmun served with Lincoln in the 30th United States Congress. As president of the Republican National Convention of 1860, it was Ashmunâs responsibility to inform Lincoln that he was the partyâs choice as candidate for president. The extreme formality of Lincolnâs letter of acceptance indicates that the news had a sobering effect on him.
Us Sen Tom Cotton Of Arkansas
Cotton has been raising Iowa eyebrows since 2016 when he stopped to meet with the Iowa delegation at that years Republican National Convention. The senator has been a regular visitor since, making appearances on behalf of elected officials like U.S. Sens. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst.
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