Obama Elected In Most Diverse Us Election To Date
Former President Barack Obama addresses voters one day before the election, in Atlanta, Georgia.BRANDON BELL;
The presidential contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 was the most diverse in US history, with almost a quarter of ballots cast by non-white voters, according to the Pew Research Center. Of these,19.5 percent were Black and Hispanic voters with Asians accounting for 2.5 percent. Black voter turnout increased by 4.9 percent over 2004 with Hispanic voters increasing by 2.7 percent.
Obama accrued 95 percent of the Black vote, which counted for 12.1 percent of the 2008 total, with the president eventually winning the popular vote by almost 10 million ballots.
The incumbent Obama ran against Mitt Romney in 2012. Hispanic voters helped to usher in another four-year term for Obama with 71 percent voting for the sitting president, a four percent increase on 2008 and the largest share of the Hispanic vote for a Democratic candidate since 1996.
Black voters again backed Obama en masse in 2012 with the president gaining 93 percent, representing a total of around 13 percent of the overall ballot.
Although a new record was set in 2012 when 137.5 million Americans went to the polls,Black turnout fell for the first time in 20 years after reaching an historic high of 66.6 percent four years earlier.
Republicans Who Backed Obama Say They May Vote For Him Again
The Hill contacted 17 prominent Republicans and members of Republicans for Obama groups that launched across the country two years ago. Most of them defended the president and indicated they might vote for him again in two years.
Electoral College Bias In Recent Elections
To start, we present a pattern that may surprise. Over the nine presidential elections leading up to 2016, the Electoral College presented little bias, even as it offers some threat of overturning the popular vote winner. Given the configuration of the relative vote divisions across the states, the popular vote winner could sometimes have been denied victory if the vote margin had turned out to be a very close election. However, despite common perceptions, there was no systematic distortion favoring one party over another. Then came the 2016 election where Donald Trump was elected handily with less than 49% of the two-party vote.
To measure Electoral College bias in past elections, our tool is the uniform swing . For any past election, we move every states Democratic vote share of the two-party vote by a constant amount. This constant amount can vary, allowing us to calculate the Electoral College outcomes given different national popular votes.
For instance, in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost in the Electoral College with 51.10% of the two-party vote. We apply the uniform swing rule to add 0.41-percentage points more of the vote to Clinton in every state, making the popular vote 51.51% Democratic. Clinton would have needed to exceed this vote margin to win all three famously pivotal states and gather enough Electoral College votes to win.
Religious Composition Of The Electorate
Exit polling reveals that the religious makeup of the 2008 electorate largely resembles the composition of the electorate in 2004. The Catholic share of the electorate held steady . Voters unaffiliated with any particular religion made up a slightly larger proportion of the electorate , and white evangelical voters accounted for nearly one-fourth of the electorate this year , compared with 20% four years ago. By contrast, voters who attend religious services more than once a week made up a slightly smaller portion of the electorate in 2008 compared with 2004 . Otherwise, there were few changes among voters in self-reported levels of religious observance.
1This analysis was originally published on Nov. 5, 2008. It was updated on Nov. 10 to reflect re-weighting of 2008 exit polls by the National Election Pool , the consortium of news organizations that conducts the exit polls. If data are re-weighted again, the numbers reported here may differ slightly from figures accessible through the websites of NEP member organizations.
Requirements For Health Plans And Insurers
The Affordable Care Act prohibited individual market insurers from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions. This policy is known as guaranteed issue. Guaranteed issue regulations had already existed for insurers selling employer-sponsored health plans, and the ACA extended this rule to the individual market as well.
The law also required insurers to allow young adults to stay on their parents’ health insurance plans until age 26. Insurers were also required to allow people in the individual market to renew their health plans each year unless they did not pay their premiums.
The ACA required individual and small group health plans that were offered both on and off the exchanges to cover services that fall into 10 broad benefits categories, called essential health benefits:
- Ambulatory patient services
- Rehabilitative and habilitative services and devices
- Prescription drugs
- Mental health and substance use disorder services, including behavioral health treatment
- Laboratory services
- Preventive and wellness services and chronic disease management
- Pediatric services, including oral and vision care
The ACA placed restrictions on the way individual and small group insurers set a plan’s premiumThe amount a consumer is required to pay for a health insurance plan. Premiums are usually paid monthly, quarterly or annually.:
Medical loss ratio
Electoral College Bias And The 2020 Presidential Election
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Edited by Larry M. Bartels, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, and approved September 7, 2020
Democrats Keep Winning The Popular Vote That Worries Them
Democrats won the popular vote in this years presidential election yet again, marking seven out of eight straight presidential elections that the party has reached that milestone.
And, for some Democrats, thats worrisome.
President-elect Joe Biden has so far won 50.8% of the vote compared to the 47.4% who voted for President Donald Trump, a 5 million vote advantage that is likely to grow as Democratic bastions like California and New York continue to count ballots. Bidens 77.5 million votes to date are the most for any winning candidate, and Trumps 72.3 million also set a high water mark for a losing one.
Experts predict Bidens margin of victory will surpass former President Barack Obamas 4 percentage point popular vote lead in 2012. Only Obamas landslide 2008 victory with a 7 percentage point margin in the popular vote was larger in recent elections.
But what alarms many Democrats is a growing gap between their popular vote tallies and their political power. Democrats may be winning over more supporters, but as long as those votes are clustered on the coasts or in cities and suburbs, they wont deliver the congressional victories the party needs to enact its policies.
Theres a massive structural challenge to the majority of Americans having any political power anytime soon, said Rebecca Katz, a liberal Democratic strategist. Its a problem.
Recommended Reading: How Many States Are Controlled By Republicans
A Plurality Believe History Will Judge Trump As A The Worst President Ever; Less Than A Quarter Of Young Americans Want Trump To Play A Key Role In The Future Of Republican Politics; Young Republicans Are Divided
Thirty percent of young Americans believe that history will judge Donald Trump as the worst president ever. Overall, 26% give the 45th president positive marks , while 54% give Trump negative marks ; 11% believe he will go down as an average president.
Twenty-two percent of young Americans surveyed agree with the statement, I want Donald Trump to play a key role in the future of Republican politics, 58% disagreed, and 19% neither agreed nor disagreed. Among young Republicans, 56% agreed while 22% disagreed, and 21% were neutral. Only 61% of those who voted for Trump in the 2020 general indicated their desire for him to remain active in the GOP.
If they had to choose, 42% of young Republicans consider themselves supporters of the Republican party, and not Donald Trump. A quarter indicated they are Trump supporters first, 24% said they support both.
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Black Voters Support Is Crucial For Democrats Is It Dropping
Biden won an estimated 90 percent of the two-way vote among Black voters in 2020 which is both an overwhelming win, and the worst performance for a Democrat among Black voters in over a decade. Clinton won 93 percent of the two-way vote among Black voters in 2016, and Obama won 97 percent in 2012.
The authors make that point that despite this drop, Black voters are key to Democratic success without the large majorities of Black voters Biden won, he couldnt have been competitive nationally or in key Electoral College states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.
Furthermore, the report estimates that turnout among Black voters increased from 2016 by 14 percent, a higher rate of increase than among white college voters or white non-college voters . So it can be true both that Biden did worse than Clinton among Black voters and that Black voters remain a core pillar of the Democratic coalition.
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Simulations: What If 2016 Had Looked More Like 2012
While comments regarding the effect of various changes to the electorate have been peppered throughout this paper, this section is dedicated to dissecting these what if scenarios in greater length. However, before digging in its worth stepping back and clarifying the lessons that can be learned from these simulations as well as our intentions in performing them.
Since the election there has been a vigorous and, to our eyes, healthy debate regarding what happened in 2016. The barely concealed subtext of this conversation is an argument about what would have altered the results and how the parties should invest their time and resources in upcoming elections.
These simulations are not an endorsement of any given strategy nor should they be read as such. Running a simulation on the turnout or support rates of various demographic groups is much easier than actually changing Americans political behavior. It may very well be the case that simulations that produce the biggest Electoral College wins or the most secure state-level margins would have been the hardest to achieve. As such, the potential effects discussed here should be filtered through readers own sense of a given simulations feasibility.
Second, we wanted to explore simulations that told us something interesting about the electorate or more systematic changes that were occurring nationwide. This goal is responsible for our two remaining simulations.
Briefly, our four simulations answer the following questions:8
Biden Thanks Black Supporters: Youve Always Had My Back And Ill Have Yours
But within minutes of starting an interview with the CBC/Radio-Canada, Brown ran headlong into the conventional and dismissive wisdom about American politics that conceives of white voters as more important or legitimate than Black and brown ones. It was the logic that perceives Black voters as an eternal problem rather than the solution.
“I would say that we have long participated at extraordinary levels and have to overcome extraordinary hurdles to do so,” Brown said in that way a woman speaks when she aims to appear calm on the surface but is seething inside. The interviewer had dismissed the work of Brown, Albright, Georgia politician and organizer Stacey Abrams and many others who have registered and motivated voters for years, literally expanding the electorate and creating new swing states. In the interviewer’s framing, Black Americans “have historically low turnout,” so was that work really wise?
Brown said: “The fact that we have caught up with white voters, white women in particular, who have historically reaped all the benefits of voting and even any slight level of political engagement, who can’t get pollsters and parties to stop targeting them, to me says that we are extraordinary. The fact that we have matched and topped white voter participation and done that while going through voter suppression in new and old forms every year, we are extraordinary. That’s what I know.”
Also Check: How Many States Are Controlled By Republicans
Overview: The Election Of 2012
Barack Hussein Obama was re-elected President of the United States on Tuesday, November 6th, 2012, serving a second term as the nations first African-American president. The 2012 presidential election was a race between Democratic incumbent President Obama and Republican Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. The two other presidential candidates included Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian Party nominee, New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson.;
Requiring 270 electoral votes to win the election, Obama received 303 electoral votes, while Romney earned 206. His victory was much narrower than his electoral victory in the 2008 Presidential Election against Senator John McCain. During his second term, President Obama continued to face a divided political climate with a Democratic Senate and a Republican House, often leading to stalemates in the Congress.;
Freddie Gray And Baltimore Protests
On April 12, 2015, Baltimore Police Department officers arrested Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old African American resident of Baltimore, Maryland, for possessing what the police alleged was an illegal switchblade. Gray sustained heavy injuries to his neck and spine while in transport in a police vehicle and fell into a coma. On April 18, 2015, the residents of Baltimore protested in front of the Western district police station. Gray died the following day, April 19, 2015, a week after the arrest. On April 21, 2015, pending an investigation of the incident, six Baltimore police officers were suspended with pay.
Further protests were organized after Grays death became public knowledge, amid the police departments continuing inability to adequately or consistently explain the events following the arrest and the injuries. Spontaneous protests started after the funeral service, and civil unrest continued with at least 250 people arrested, at least 20 police officers injured, 285 to 350 businesses damaged, 60 structure fires, thousands of police and Maryland National Guard troops deployed, and a state of emergency declared in the city limits of Baltimore. On May 1, 2015, Grays death was ruled to be a homicide, and legal charges were issued against the six officers involved in the incident, including that of second-degree murder. The state of emergency was lifted on May 6.
Which Political Party Is The Most Successful In Usa
In the United States, there has usually only been two main political parties. Since the 1860s, these two main parties have been the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party has the most seats in the House of Representatives while the Republicans and Democrats split the Senate at 50 Senators each.
Not All Catholics Venerated Jfk
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All analogies limp, a wise man once said. So it is with the comparison between John F. Kennedy, the first Catholic to be elected president, and Barack Obama, the first black president. In both cases the Democratic nominee overcame historic prejudices with overwhelming support from his own group Catholics for Kennedy, African Americans for Obama. In both cases members of groups that had endured discrimination were galvanized to vote for one of us.
So the analogy is valid. But lets talk about the limp.
First, while both candidates benefited from bloc voting, Catholics were much less monolithic in supporting JFK than blacks were in backing Obama. Estimates of the percentage of the Catholic vote for Kennedy range from 70% to 83%. Estimates of the black vote for Obama — more accurate because of refinements in exit polling — suggest that he won 95% or 96% of the black vote in 2008 and 93% in 2013.
This gap can be easily explained. While discrimination against Catholics was real, it was never as invidious or as institutionalized as white racism. Many Catholics who voted for Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 switched over to JFK in 1960. But not all of them. For some Catholic Republicans, party trumped faith.
Though he never told me as much, Im reasonably sure that my father voted for Richard Nixon in 1960. For one thing, he came from a Republican family.
And my father said: Id like to take my fist and place it in his mouth.
Also Check: Democrat To Republican Ratio In Senate
Before Obama Asian Americans Voted Republican The Gop Wants To Bring Them Back
As Republicans look to make a strong showing in local, state and federal races this year, more than 70 people met one day in February at a family-owned Chinese restaurant in Queens, New York and not just to eat.
The participants, almost all of them Chinese American, were attending training as part of the Republican Leadership Initiative, which arms community leaders with tools to mobilize support for GOP candidates in their communities, according to Miki Carver, a press secretary with the Republican National Committee.
It was held in the Flushing neighborhood of Queens, New York Citys largest borough, where roughly 1 in 4 residents identify as Asian.
During this cycle, the GOP has trained more than 12,000 leadership fellows, Carver said. Among them are Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, part of an electorate that is expected to double in size by 2040.
These fellows really grow the partys presence and just really get our message out there, Carver said.