Monday, April 22, 2024

Is Donald Trump Winning In The Polls

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Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President

Gravitas: Here’s why Donald Trump could win the 2024 Presidential Race

If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:


Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.

The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.

While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.

Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.

Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.

Digging Deeper In Trump Country

The Trump campaign isnt just blanketing Michigan, its going to areas he won in 2016 in an attempt to build on those gains, said John Sellek, a Republican strategist with Harbor Strategic Public Affairs in Lansing.

Last month, for instance, Trump spoke in the Thumb region, where four years ago he became the first Republican to win Saginaw and Bay counties since Ronald Reagan did in 1984, Sellek said. So hes pushing that zone hard.

The strategy isnt just about turning out the same voters again, Sellek said. Its about pushing deeper into counties Trump flipped in 2016 to try to find more like-minded residents who either did not register or did not vote four years ago.

That is how Trump wins Michigan, Sellek said, by building bigger margins in those counties.

He noted the Trump campaign also appears to be taking a new tact in advertising: A commercial now airing in Michigan features a local senior citizen discussing how Medicare Advantage rates dropped in recent years and warning that Democrats could move the country toward socialized medicine.

After months of trying to figure out how to win back suburban voters, the Trump campaign now appears to instead be trying to focus on senior voters in an attempt to peel people back from the Democrats, Sellek said.

America Is Not Ready For Trumps Second Term

And he could win, fair and square.

About the author: David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.

The United States was unprepared for the scope of President Donald Trumps attempt to steal the 2020 presidential election. By Election Day, Trump had spent months calling the election rigged, and historians and democracy experts warned of the damage that these false claims could make. But when the president stepped to a lectern in the White House late on Election Night and insisted hed won, many Americans were taken aback. Much worse was still to come: Trump calling Georgias secretary of state, asking him to find 11,000 votes attempting to weaponize the Justice Department and instigating the failed January 6 insurrection.

Americans are ready now. If anything, theyre overprepared. Many members of the uneasy coalition of Democrats and former Republicans who oppose Trump are frantically focused on the danger of Trump and his GOP allies trying to steal the 2022 and especially 2024 elections. This is not without justification many of Trumps henchmen, meanwhile, are frantically focused on stealing it. But these watchdogs risk missing the graver danger: Trump could win this fair and square.

The possibility remains that they might try everything else and then opt for the wrong thing after all.

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Who Won The Presidential Debates

Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.

The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump’s combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.

A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight afterwards suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.

Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump – a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people said the debate made them feel “annoyed”.

In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments.

But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.

While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Biden’s performance was more impressive.

A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump.

AYouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.

So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it’s unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own.

Question6 Overall Do You Think The Country Is Better Off Or Worse Off Today Than It Was A Year Ago

Graphics: Biden wins snap debate polls, Trump closes in battlegrounds ...
                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoBetter               41%     5%    76%    38%    37%    45%    53%    25%Worse                52     94     14     56     56     48     44     70SAME             5      1      7      4      4      5      1      3DK/NA                 3      -      2      2      3      2      2      3                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspBetter               44%    43%    37%    40%    30%    38%    34%    67%    42%Worse                44     51     58     56     65     58     61     24     50SAME             8      4      4      2      2      2      2      7      4DK/NA                 4      2      2      2      3      2      2      2      4

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Trump Leads Biden In Hypothetical 2024 Match

Former President Trump has an early edge over President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, according to a new Emerson College poll.

The national survey shows Trump leading Biden 44 percent to 39 percent in a head-to-head match-up, while another 12 percent of voters say they plan to vote for someone else.

Trumps support has held firm since May, when the same poll found him notching 44 percent support in a 2024 race against Biden. But Bidens support has waned somewhat since then, dropping from 42 percent in May to 39 percent in late June.

Of course, whether a rematch of the 2020 presidential race materializes in 2024 remains an open question.

While Biden has said that he plans to seek a second term in the White House, some Democrats have begun questioning whether he should actually do so.

Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly hinted at a potential 2024 run, though he hasnt yet committed himself to another campaign and some Republicans remain skeptical that he will actually move forward with a comeback bid.

If he does ultimately decide to run, however, Trump would be the early favorite to win the GOP presidential nod. Fifty-five percent of voters say they would support Trump in the 2024 Republican primary, while 20 percent would back Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a rising star within the party who has been floated as a potential presidential contender.

Voting Patterns In The 2020 Election

The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. The gender gap in the 2020 election was narrower than it had been in 2016 as Democrats made gains among men and Republicans made gains among women. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points . In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men while maintaining an 18-point lead among women. In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly , while Bidens advantage narrowed to 11 points among women .

Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clintons in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points . That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 . White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 , favored him in 2020 .

Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters, nearly the same as Clinton received in 2016 and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House received in 2018.

Party and ideology

Age and generation



White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin , while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group .

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Why Mick Mulvaney Believes Republicans No Longer Need Trump

When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably — and immediately — ask some version of this question: “Is he going to run again? And can he win?”

The Point: Trump is the least predictable politician, well, ever. Which means that you can never bank of anything with him — including another run for president. But, man does it look and sound like he is going to run again. And, yes, he can win.

Biden Seems In Better Shape

Donald Trump plots path to potential 2024 presidential run

Despite Bidens lead, Nick Gourevitch, a partner at Global Strategy Group who has been polling on the presidential race, told the Washington Post that a Trump win is still within the realm of possibility.

I dont know anyone in my Democratic pollster world who is sitting 100 per cent comfortably or anything like that, Gourevitch said.

Biden seems in better shape, but it is still a polarized country.

But Young warns that the political landscape has changed dramatically in four years, so people should be careful when trying to compare the two elections.

2016 was in 2016 a lot has happened since then. But if anything, what happened four years ago should give us all a pause at the end of the day its about activating your base and getting people to vote, he said.

With a file from Global News Andrew Russell

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Question5 Is Your Opinion Of Donald Trump Favorable Unfavorable Or Haven’t You Heard Enough About Him

                     ADULTS.....................................................                              WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoFavorable            39%    86%     3%    38%    43%    35%    32%    55%Unfavorable          52     10     91     49     46     57     63     35Hvn't hrd enough      5      2      4      6      5      4      2      4REFUSED               5      2      1      7      5      4      4      5                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspFavorable            26%    41%    45%    47%    52%    42%    47%     7%    38%Unfavorable          55     53     48     49     38     51     45     83     49Hvn't hrd enough     10      3      3      1      3      4      3      5      9REFUSED               8      4      4      2      6      3      5      5      4

Question1a Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way Joe Biden Is Handling His Job As President Combined With: Do You Strongly Or Somewhat Approve/disapprove

                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoApprove strongly     18%     1%    45%    12%    13%    23%    27%    10%Approve smwht        18      2     34     16     16     20     23     14Disapprove smwht      8      8      6     10      8      8      6      6Disapprove strongly  43     87      5     46     49     37     40     58DK/NA                12      3      9     16     13     12      4     11                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspApprove strongly      8%    18%    20%    31%    11%    21%    16%    36%    18%Approve smwht        23     20     17     12     15     18     17     28     14Disapprove smwht     18      4      4      5      6      6      6      8     12Disapprove strongly  29     46     51     48     58     46     52     14     39DK/NA                22     11      9      5     10      8      9     13     17

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Question10 Overall Do You Think Donald Trump Has Had A Mainly Positive Or Mainly Negative Impact On

                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoPositive             43%    85%     7%    46%    47%    38%    36%    53%Negative             49      9     88     46     44     55     60     37DK/NA                 8      6      5      8      9      7      4     10                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspPositive             38%    39%    47%    47%    54%    42%    48%    12%    52%Negative             50     53     46     49     39     50     45     85     39DK/NA                12      8      6      3      7      8      8      4     10

Alaska Senate Race Polls: Polling Average Last 3 Elections And Result

Donald Trump just got some of his best polling news in weeks

Alaska has been a Republican-dominated state and in the last 3 decades, there has been only Republican Senate from Alaska. Lisa Murkowski has been a senator from Alaska since 2004. This year she is running for the 4th time to be elected as the Senator from Alaska. The last three Senate election in Alaska was held in the year 2016, 2010, and 2004. Here are the details about the last 3 Senate elections in Alaska:

2016 Alaska Senate Race: 2016 Alaska Senate was one of the most interesting senate elections in Alaska when a Libertarian polled more votes than the Democratic Party nominee. The election to elect a Senator from Alaska was held on November 8, 2016. Lisa Murkowski ran to be re-elected for the 3rd time as Senator of Alaska. Her main challenger was Libertarian Joe Miller who had defeated Murkowski for the Republican nomination six years before.

The polls for the Senate election predicted an easy win for Lisa Murkowski, however, almost all the polls underestimated her Libertarian challenger Joe Miller. The polls predicted Lisa winning nearly 50% vote share while Joe Miller was predicted to less than 20% of total votes. The election result was slightly different than what was predicted. Lisa Murkowski won the election but she was able to poll around 44.4% vote share while her Libertarian challenger polled 29.2% vote share.

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House Representatives Viewed As More Deserving In Presidential Election Years

Six in 10 registered voters say their own district’s House representative deserves to be reelected — similar to what Gallup found in the recent presidential election years of 2012 , 2008 and 2004 .

Since 2006, voters have been more likely to support the reelection of their own member of Congress in presidential election years than in midterm elections . This aligns with the more mercurial nature of midterm elections — which, particularly recently, have been wave elections for the president’s opposition party.

Voters are much less likely to view “most members of Congress” as deserving of reelection as they are their own district’s member. The current 29% saying most members deserve another term is not the lowest final preelection reading Gallup has found. Still, from a longer-term perspective, voters have become less likely to view most members as deserving of reelection over time — paralleling Congress’ sinking approval ratings.

Line graph. Americans views on whether their personal U.S. House Representative and most members of congress deserve re-election. 60% of Americans say their own representative deserves re-election, while 29% indicate most members of congress deserve re-election.

There is little daylight between Republicans’ and Democrats’ views on whether their representative deserves reelection, while less than half of independents agree.

Us Election: Trump Won’t Commit To Peaceful Transfer Of Power

When asked, President Trump refuses to commit to a peaceful transfer of power after the election

US President Donald Trump has refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses November’s election.

“Well, we’ll have to see what happens,” the president told a news conference at the White House. “You know that.”

Mr Trump also said he believed the election result could end up in the US Supreme Court, as he again cast doubt on postal voting.

More states are encouraging mail-in voting, citing the need to keep Americans safe from coronavirus.

Every losing presidential candidate has conceded.

If Mr Trump were to refuse to accept the result of the election, it would take the US into uncharted territory and it is not clear how it would play out.

However President Trump’s opponent, Democrat Joe Biden, has previously said that in this scenario he believes the military would be deployed to remove Mr Trump from the White House.

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Wapo: Ginni Thomas Made Personal Appeals To Overturn Bidens Win

When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably and immediately ask some version of this question: Is he going to run again? And can he win?

The Point: Trump is the least predictable politician, well, ever. Which means that you can never bank of anything with him including another run for president. But, man does it look and sound like he is going to run again. And, yes, he can win.

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