Iowa And Montana Senate Races Toss
With polls closing at 10 p.m. ET, CBS News estimates the closely-watched Iowa and Montana Senate races are both toss-ups. If the Democratic candidates defeated the Republican incumbents, it would bring Democrats closer to gaining the majority in the Senate.
In Iowa, Republican Senator Joni Ernst is being challenged by Democrat Theresa Greenfield in an unexpectedly close race. Mr. Trump won Iowa by 10 percentage points in 2016, raising concerns among Republicans about the tightness of a race Ernst was initially expected to win. Greenfield has raised far more than Ernst $28.7 million in the third quarter and she could end up outspending Ernst by more than $25 million by Election Day. ;
In Montana, first-term Republican Senator Steve Daines faces a challenge from the two-term governor of his state, Steve Bullock. Like Hickenlooper, Bullock briefly ran for president before ending his bid and entering the Senate race in March 2020. Bullock won reelection in Montana as a Democrat in 2016 even as Donald Trump won the state by about 20 points.
Meanwhile, the South Carolina Senate race has gone from a “toss-up” to “likely Republican.”
Proof Of Fraud Republicans Won 28 Of 29 Most Competitive House Seats Added 3 State Legislatures Did Not Lose A Single House Race But Joe Biden Won
By Jim Hoft,; Gateway Pundit, November 8, 2020:
Before the election the fake news media predicted Joe Biden would win by 12-15 points and the Republicans would lose 15 to 20 House seats.
That never happened thanks to President Trump!
Republican Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy joined on Sunday Morning Futures this morning.
McCarthy told Maria Republicans won 28 of 29 of the most competitive US House seats.Republicans DID NOT LOSE one single House seat!
The Republicans also took control of three more state .
And breaking this morning, rock star Rep. Darrell Issa won his seat in Congress!
Also, there are several more House seats where Republican candidates are leading but the states refuse to call these races!
This is the latest proof that Democrats cheated in massive ways to steal the presidency.
Via Sunday Morning Futures:
States That Lost Seats
California continues to be the most populous state in the country, but its pace of growth has slowed enough that it will lose a seat in the next Congress. That means the states independent redistricting commission will have to decide what part of the state loses representation, which could hurt one party. Based on population growth, the endangered seat could very well be a district located completely or partly in Los Angeles County. And because Democrats control almost all of those seats, that could mean they will suffer a net loss from Californias redistricting. However, the removal of a district could make Republican Rep. Mike Garcias seat in northern Los Angeles County even more Democratic-leaning than it already is Biden carried it by 10 points if the districts new lines stretch further southward, which would give Democrats a better chance of capturing that seat.
Lastly, we know for sure that Republicans will be the ones to lose a seat in West Virginia. All three current members of Congress from the Mountain State belong to the GOP, so at least one out of Reps. David McKinley, Alex Mooney or Carol Miller will not be in the next Congress. Expect a lot of intrigue surrounding how, exactly, the seat is redrawn and perhaps a rare incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary election.
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‘blood On His Hands’: Republican Rips Biden Over Afghanistan
The midterm elections are still 18 months away, but the fight for control of the Senate is already shaping what gets done in the nation’s capital this year.
Similar To 2020 Republicans Start On The Defensive
While all the votes have yet to be counted and theres no clear winner in this years fight for the Senate, the battle will continue into the 2022 midterms. Similar to 2020, Republicans will start on the defensive, and Democrats are initially poised to make gains once again. But the cycle will likely be defined by the actions of the White House.
The 2022 Senate class was last elected in 2016. Republicans lost two seats that year, even with Donald Trumps surprise win, but its still a GOP-heavy class because the party gained a combined 10 seats in the preceding 2010 and 2004 cycles.;
The initial 2022 Senate field includes 21 seats currently held by Republicans to 13 for the Democrats. That includes the Arizona seat won by Democrat Mark Kelly over GOP Sen. , and the Georgia seat currently held by appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler. But that race is headed for a Jan. 5 runoff. A win by Democrat Raphael Warnock would change the 2022 class makeup to 20 Republicans and 14 Democrats. Thats a fairly similar partisan breakdown to this cycle, when Republicans were defending 23 seats to the Democrats 12.;
Within the entire 2022 class is the actual battleground, featuring states with seats that could legitimately flip. The final 2020 battleground included 12 vulnerable Republican seats and just two vulnerable Democratic seats. The initial 2022 battleground is likely to include six Republican seats and three Democratic ones.;
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Collins Says Gideon Called To Concede
Senator Susan Collins of Maine told supporters on Wednesday that her Democratic opponent, Sara Gideon, had called her to concede the race. Without taking Collins’ seat, Democrats have little change of claiming the Senate majority.;
“I have news for everyone. I just received a very gracious call from Sara Gideon conceding the race,” Collins told supporters on Wednesday afternoon.
Collins, one of the more moderate members of Senate, was considered particularly vulnerable this year. If she had received under 50% of the vote, the race would have proceeded to a runoff, under Maine’s system of ranked-choice voting.
Gideon significantly outraised Collins, and hit the senator repeatedly for voting to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.;
Relationship With Trump Administration
McConnell initially endorsed fellow Kentucky senator during the 2016 presidential campaign. Following Paul’s withdrawal from the race in February 2016, McConnell endorsed presumptive nominee Donald Trump on February 4, 2016. However, McConnell disagreed with Trump on multiple subsequent occasions. In May 2016, after Trump suggested that federal judge was biased against Trump because of his , McConnell responded, “I don’t agree with what he had to say. This is a man who was born in Indiana. All of us came here from somewhere else.” In July 2016, after Trump had criticized the parents of Capt. , a soldier who was killed in Iraq, McConnell said, “All Americans should value the patriotic service of the patriots who volunteer to selflessly defend us in the armed services.” On October 7, 2016, following the , McConnell said, “As the father of three daughters, I strongly believe that Trump needs to apologize directly to women and girls everywhere, and take full responsibility for the utter lack of respect for women shown in his comments on that tape.” In private, McConnell reportedly expresses disdain for Trump and “abhors” his behavior.
In October 2017, White House chief strategist and other Trump allies blamed McConnell for stalling the Trump administration’s legislation. In response, McConnell cited the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court to show that the Senate was supportive of Trump’s agenda.
First impeachment of Trump
Second impeachment of Trump
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Changes In Chamber Partisan Control 2010 To 2019
Prior to the 2010 elections, Democrats controlled 60 of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans controlled 37, and two chambers were not controlled by either party. In the six years that followed, Republicans made significant gains and took control of many of the chambers that were previously held by Democrats. After the 2016 elections, Democrats controlled 31 chambers and Republicans controlled 68.
In the 2017 and 2018 elections, Democrats increased their number of state legislative chambers to 37, and Republicans saw their number of chambers fall to 61. Control of one chamber, the Alaska House of Representatives, was split between the parties.
As a result of the 2019 elections, Democrats gained control of two additional chambers.
From 2010 to 2019, there were 63 instances where a state legislative chamber changed partisan control. Of these 63 changes, 40 involved a chamber changing from Democratic to Republican control and 19 involved a chamber changing from Republican to Democratic control. The other four involved chambers that were split between the two parties .
From 2010 to 2019, 40 chambers switched control: 25 switched control once, 12 switched control twice, one switched control three times, and three switched control four times.
|Chamber changes in partisan control: 2010-2019
|Party changes in 2010
|Total changes: 7
|Total changes: 2
|Partisan control of state legislative chambers: 2010-2018
Gop Holds Key Seats In Battle For Majority As Ernst Cornyn And Graham All Win; Democrat Kelly Unseats Incumbent Mcsally In Arizona
WASHINGTONRepublicans scored key Senate victories in Tuesdays elections, with wins in Iowa and Alabama, while Democrats flipped two seats, with former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper unseating incumbent GOP Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado, and Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, toppling Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona, the Associated Press projected.
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, AP projected that Iowas incumbent GOP Sen. Joni Ernst had defeated Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield, a Des Moines businesswoman. Republicans picked up a seat by ousting Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in deep red Alabama, with Tommy Tuberville, the Republican candidate and former Auburn head football coach, winning.
Control of the chamber still remains in doubt as a number of other GOP-held races hang in the balance. Democrats now have a net gain of one seat. They need to gain three seats to win a majority if Democrat Joe Biden wins the White House or four if President Trump wins re-election.
Everything has to go right at this point in order for Democrats to have what is a very small shot to win the majority, said Jessica Taylor, who follows Senate races for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan outlet that tracks congressional races.
The races in North Carolina and Georgia were too close to call, and the outcomes in Michigan and Maine were uncertain. The Democrats opportunities to pick off seats dwindled as the vote counting deepened.
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Iowa Montana And South Carolina
Though Iowa, Montana and South Carolina are all traditionally right-leaning, polls had shown tight Senate races in those states, and the Cook Political Report had rated each a tossup. But come Election Day, Republicans easily won each race.
In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst, the Republican incumbent, dispatched Theresa Greenfield, her Democratic challenger, by 6.6 percentage points. In Montana, Senator Steve Daines, the Republican incumbent, won by more than 10 percentage points against Steve Bullock, Montanas two-term Democratic governor.
And in South Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican and the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, survived a challenge by Jaime Harrison, a former chairman of the states Democratic Party, winning by 10.3 percentage points.
Who Controls State Legislatures In States With Changes
Thirteen states were affected by the 2020 Census’ shift in congressional seats.;
States are given the task of redrawing districts when;they gain;or lose;seats.;
Michael Li, senior counsel for the non-partisan Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program,;said;the country could be poised for a battle over;gerrymandering, the practice of redrawing district lines to favor one party over the other or to suppress the vote of communities of color.
In some states, the process is fairer than others, he said, because they are not controlled by just one political party or they have instituted an independent redistricting committee, such as in Michigan. But for other states, the party in power stands to control the map.
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The Winding Road To Democratic Control
Following an anxious four days of waiting after the 2020 general election, nearly all major news networks declared that Joe Biden had exceeded 270 electoral votes and won the presidency. Democrats also retained control of the U.S. House, although their majority has been trimmed back .
But the U.S. Senate still hung in the balance, a tantalizing prize for Democrats dreaming of a trifecta, and a bulwark against a Democratic agenda for Republicans who seek to hold onto some power under the new Biden administration that will be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021.
Republicans claimed 50 Senate seats after the November election, two more than the 48 seats claimed by the Democratic Caucus at that time.
The Senates balance of power teetered on the fulcrum of Georgias two seats, both of which were decided by the January 5th runoff election. Georgia law requires candidates to be voted in with at least 50% of the votes cast; if a candidate does not reach that threshold the two candidates who received the highest number of votes face one another in a runoff election.
Georgias runoff election featured these match-ups:
Incumbent David Perdue versus Jon Ossoff .According to Georgias Secretary of State, Perdue received 88,000 more votes than Ossoff, but came up just shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. This is in part due to the 115,000 votes that went to Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel who will not appear on the January ballot.
Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won reelection, CBS News projects, after a contentious race. Although Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison outraised Graham by a significant amount, it was not enough to flip a Senate seat in the deep-red state.
Graham led the high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Harrison hit him for his reversal on confirming a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.
Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.
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Control Of The Senate Could Be Decided By Georgia Races
;There are two races up in Georgia this election, a regular Senate race and special election. The rules in Georgia for both the regular Senate election and the Senate special election require a candidate to win a majority, and if none of the candidates clear the 50% threshold, the race goes to a runoff in January.;
Recent polling in the race between incumbent GOP Senator David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has been tight, and the presence of a libertarian candidate on the ballot could prevent either Perdue or Ossoff from clearing the majority. In the special election, 21 candidates have qualified to be on the ballot, including Democrat Raphael Warnock, who has led in recent polls. GOP candidates Senator Kelly Loeffer, who was appointed to the seat last year, and Congressman Doug Collins are also on the ballot. If no candidate clears the majority, that race will also go to a runoff in January.
Democrat Majority In House Of Representatives Shrinks As Republicans Pick Up More Wins
If Democrats and the media somehow manage to engineer a Biden win, he isnt going to get much done as president.
Not only did Republicans retain control of the Senate, they continue picking up house seats.
This is a disaster for Democrats, and even if they manage to retain control of the House, it will be with a very small majority.
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Even though Nancy Pelosi presided over this disaster for Democrats, she is planning to run for Speaker of the House again.
Nancy Pelosi formally announces a run for reelection as House speaker. It would mark her fourth term as speaker. https://t.co/tgj69bYBne
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Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip In 2022
Democratic control of Congress will be on the line next year as Republicans look to claw their way back into power after a disappointing 2020 election that cost them the White House and their Senate majority.
But despite the conventional wisdom that the party of a new president tends to lose ground in the midterms, Senate Democrats are staring down several offensive opportunities in 2022 as they look to expand their ultra-narrow majority in the upper chamber.
Still, the GOP has pickup opportunities of its own, especially in states that Democrats only managed to win recently.
Here are the nine Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022:
Joe BidenMilley says civil war ‘likely’ in AfghanistanSoutheastern parts of Louisiana could have power restored as late as Sept. 29It’s time to transform our unemployment systemMOREs narrow win here in 2020 have given Democrats what they see as one of their best opportunities to flip a Senate seat that has been held by Republicans for 50 of the past 52 years.
The Democratic primary field is also crowded, attracting candidates like Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, a surrogate for Biden during the 2020 campaign. Others in the race include Val Arkoosh, the chair of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners.
More candidates could soon follow, including Rep. Conor Lamb , who is said to be considering a Senate bid.