Why We Arent Going To Panic
We should all have our eyes wide open as we inch closer to the 2022 Midterms, but by no means should we give up hope. There are plenty of reasons why we can win the midterms.
For starters, Democrats appear to be quite awake to how dangerous the Republican party has become in just the past few years. And since the Republicans dont appear to be any less radicalized with Trump out of the party, I dont think Democrats are going to go back to sleep.
At this point in the election cycle, we dont have a full picture of who is retiring from Congress or who the candidates will be for these seats. Getting great candidates for crucial, must-win seats can energize voters and donors.
Presidential approval seems to have an important effect on midterms and at this point, Bidens approval rating is 15 points higher than his disapproval. If he continues to do good things for Americans and keep his approval rating high, that will help the Democrats a lot.
So, lets approach this midterm as clearly as possible: Our democracy is still on the line, and as awful as the Republicans are, they are in striking position to win back some power in Congress. Each of us needs to do everything we can to ensure that does not happen. If you arent already, consider subscribing to Political Charge as Ill be delving into specific actions we can take every month!
If you want to win the midterms, please share this post with others who want to win, too!
Senate Republican Leader Says Narrow Democratic Control Of House And Senate Makes Push Against President Impractical
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Wednesday, I think we have a good chance of winning that election next year.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Republican calls for removing President Biden from office over the Afghanistan withdrawal were impractical, urging GOP voters to focus instead on winning back the House and Senate in next years midterm elections.
Look, there isnt going to be an impeachment, but I think we have a good chance of winning that election next year, Mr. McConnell said in remarks in his home state on Wednesday, in which he noted that Democrats could block any push to remove the president.
What Would Happen If Republicans Win The Midterm Elections
Without a time machine, there’s nothing that can tell us with certainty what’s going to happen in the midterm elections, but there are plenty of metrics — polls, fundraising, historical trends, registration advantages, etc. — that can tell us what’s probable. And with 11 days remaining before Election Day, Democrats are likely to win a House majority, while Republicans are likely to keep the Senate.
It’s understandable that many remain skeptical. After all, Hillary Clinton was favored to win the presidency two years ago. It wouldn’t take much of an electoral shift to produce results that are out of step with expectations.
All of which raises the possibility of Republicans holding onto all of the levers of federal power for another two years.
GOP officials effectively take it as a given that their Senate majority will be larger in the next Congress — NRSC Chairman Cory Gardner believes a 55-seat majority is within reach — and the Associated Press reported this week that leading Democrats “now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats.”
The New York Times‘ David Leonhardt had a piece the other day on the implications of a successful GOP cycle.
That sounds … about right.
Leonhardt fleshed out his thesis by shining a light on a variety of developments he’d expect to see in the event of two more years of Republican rule, but there are basically four key areas that I’d recommend keeping an eye on:
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What 3 Upcoming Elections Can Tell Us About The Political Climate
The table below compares our retroactive generic-ballot polling averages as of Sept. 16 the year before a midterm election with the eventual House popular vote margin in the 1982-2018 midterms. It shows that the presidents party usually loses ground between this point in the cycle and the actual election.
The presidents party often continues to lose ground
Change between the presidents partys average margin in generic-ballot polling on Sept. 16 of the year before the midterm election* and its national House popular vote margin, in every midterm election from 1982-2018
| Cycle |
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*Using FiveThirtyEights current generic-ballot polling average methodology applied retroactively.
Specifically, the generic-ballot polling average the previous September overestimates the presidents partys vote margin by an average of 3.5 points.4 This is the manifestation of one of the most ironclad rules in politics: The party that holds the White House almost always performs poorly in the midterms.
Most Republicans Said That President Obama Should Be Impeached Because Of The 2012 Attack On The Us Consulate In Benghazi
Their own investigations, however, proved them wrong. Every Congressional inquiry, including those by the Republican-led House Intelligence Committee, concluded that the Obama administration did nothing wrong regarding Benghazi, that there was no stand down order given, and that neither the President nor anyone in his administration lied about it. Each and every Republican investigation has reached this same conclusion, but Republicans continue to exploit this tragedy for political gain.
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Rep Jayapal Recounts Emotional Oval Office Moment
After a rough month for President Joe Biden, Republicans think they have more than historical precedent on their side to retake the Senate in 2022.
How Far Can A Governor Take Emergency Powers
Republicans have criticized Newsoms use of emergency power during the coronavirus pandemic, saying hes exerted too much control without the usual checks and balances. As the pandemic sidelined normal work in the Legislature last year, Newsom issued as many executive orders in 2020 as his predecessor did in eight years.;
Assemblymember Kevin Kiley a Rocklin Republican now running in the recall election sued Newsom to try to limit his emergency power, but ultimately lost in court. With that ruling that a governor has broad authority to change or rescind laws during an emergency, GOP candidates are now talking about how theyd use such power themselves.
I would not use executive authority to create new laws and new policies, as this governor has, Kiley said in an interview with CalMatters. But I would use it to unwind things that never shouldve been there to begin with.;
Kiley said he would end Newsoms pandemic emergency declaration, which would set the stage for reversing related public health rules, such as the requirement that children wear masks at school and that state employees and health care workers get vaccinated against COVID-19 . Other GOP candidates also pledge to reverse Newsoms mask and vax orders.;;;
But the major Republican recall candidates are talking about using emergency powers for a lot more than the pandemic.;
Kevin Faulconer, the Republican former mayor of San Diego, said he would to speed up prevention efforts to clear trees and brush.;
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Us Midterm Elections: Obama Speaks At Rally In Miami
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The midterm elections give US citizens the chance to voice their feelings about a President halfway through his term.
President Donald Trump was elected in 2016, and todays elections will determine how the remaining two years of his presidency pans out.
Today polls will open across the country for US Citizens to cast their votes.
It has been a close-run race between the Presidents party, the Republicans, and the Democrats.
Ahead Of 2022 Midterms Republicans See Opening With Chaos In Afghanistan
Washington With the chaotic evacuation of thousands of Americans and at-risk Afghans from Kabul dominating the headlines after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, Republicans see a political opening to use the fallout from President Biden’s withdrawal to question his capabilities, in hopes of wresting control of Congress from Democrats.;
While foreign policy was not a top issuefor voters in the last two elections, “the challenge for the Biden administration is it sets a narrative of competence, or lack thereof, and Americans don’t like losing. Nobody likes losing, but especially in a way where you’re humiliated,” Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster who has worked on various congressional campaigns, told CBS News.
The president has taken a hit from the chaos in Kabul. A CBS News poll released Sunday found 44% of Americans believe the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan has gone “very badly” though 63% of Americans approve of the drawdown. Forty-seven percent, meanwhile, approve of Mr. Biden’s handling of the withdrawal, down from 60% in July.
The poll showed Mr. Biden’s overall job rating has fallen, too, with 50% of Americans saying they approve of his performance, an eight-point drop since July.;
Voters, he said, “want candidates’ or politicians’ rhetoric to match their records.”
Several;Republican;congressional candidates;are also highlighting the crisis in Afghanistan in sponsored posts on social media.
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Colwell: Republicans Are Likely To Win Control Of The House Next Year But
Three reasons why Republicans are very likely to take control of the House next year involve things over which Democrats have little or no control.
There is, however, one reason why Democrats might be able somehow to hang on to their slim majority. And they do have better prospects of at least holding on to the 50-50 Senate tie.
Reasons for Republicans winning control of the House:
FIRST: History is on their side. The party out of the White House almost always makes big gains in the first midterm election in a new presidency. In those midterm elections since the end of World War II, the average loss for the presidents party has been 29 seats. Democrats lost 63 seats in the 2010 midterm after election of President Barack Obama. Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 midterm after election of Donald Trump.
Because Democrats already lost seats in 2020, even as Joe Biden won the presidency, Republicans need only a net of five seats to win the majority. Democrats cant go back to 2020 to win more seats.
Factors in midterm losses for the presidents party include voters wanting a check on the president and disillusionment over any presidents inability to bring about everything voters hoped for.
SECOND:;Redistricting after the census will result in many more safe Republican seats. Thats because Republicans control state legislatures in far more states than do Democrats. Both parties gerrymander. But it is the GOP controlling district drawing in many more states.
Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.
Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.
What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?
alex : Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.
geoffrey.skelley :Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.;
nrakich : What they said!
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What If The Republicans Win Everything Again
Total victory for the G.O.P. would mean Trump unleashed.
Opinion Columnist
The end of Robert Muellers investigation. The loss of health insurance for several million people. New laws that make it harder to vote. More tax cuts for the rich. More damage to the environment. A Republican Party molded even more in the image of President Trump.
These are among the plausible consequences if the Republicans sweep the midterm elections and keep control of both the House and Senate. And dont fool yourself. That outcome, although not the most likely one, remains possible. The last couple of weeks of polling have shown how it could happen.
Voters who lean Republican including whites across the South could set aside their disappointment with Trump and vote for Republican congressional candidates. Voters who lean left including Latinos and younger adults could turn out in low numbers, as they usually do in midterm elections. The Republicans continuing efforts to suppress turnout could also swing a few close elections.
No matter what, Democrats will probably win the popular vote in the House elections, for the first time since 2012. Trump, after all, remains unpopular. But the combination of gerrymandering and the concentration of Democratic voters in major cities means that a popular-vote win wont automatically translate into a House majority.
Midterm Alert: What Happens If Republicans Actually Keep Congress
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. The Democrats are expected to win back the House. But what if… they dont?
An increasing, albeit tiny, number of individual investors, research firms, think tank associates and hedge funds have told me in the last week that they doubt there will be a blue wave during Tuesday’s midterm election. All of them think the GOP manage to keep a tiny majority in the House and actually gain seats in the Senante.
The House is expected to flip, as is historical president. President Trump is the key issue on the ballot, with a blue wave, and even a blue ripple, seen as a testament to American disdain for his crass style of politics.
But what happens if the Republicans pull off another 2016-style upset and hold onto the House of Representatives? Thats no one’s base-case scenario in the market. Consensus gives them a one-in-four chance of keeping the Democrats out of power. The Senate still remains Republican, everyone believes. But lets suppose that the generic polls that investors are basing;the midterms on fail to get to the heart of head-to-head races. And the Republicans manage to squeak out a victory and hold onto the legislative and executive branches.
One thing for sure, the Trump opposition would go ballistic.
Another surety: the stock market skyrockets, say analysts from BNP Paribas.
This scenario would represent a significant surprise for markets, BNPs;U.S. Team of Economics and Strategy wrote in a 12-page report published this week.
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Can Democrats Avoid A Wipeout In 2022
Bidens plan: Go big or go home.
The good news for Democrats who watched Joe Biden unveil a historically ambitious agenda last night is that newly elected presidents have almost always passed some version of their core economic planparticularly when their party controls both congressional chambers, as Bidens does now.
The bad news: Voters have almost always punished the presidents party in the next midterm election anyway. The last two times Democrats had unified controlwith Bill Clinton in 199394 and Barack Obama in 200910they endured especially resounding repudiations in the midterms, which cost Clinton his majority in both chambers and Obama the loss of the House.
Theres a very different strategy this time, David Price, a Democratic representative from North Carolina and a former political scientist, told me. Theres an openness now to the sense that a bolder plan, ironically, might have greater appeal for independents and others we need to attract than trying to trim and split the difference with Republicans.
There is this recognition of this moment and how fleeting it is, and an evaluation that, absent the trifecta of control, it is very hard to move big policy, said a senior official at one of the partys leading outside advocacy groups, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategizing. So you have to take your shot. I think thats part of what undergirds Go big.
What If 19 Alternate Histories Imagining A Very Different World
Alternate history, long popular with fiction writers, has also been explored by historians and journalists. Here are some of their intriguing conclusions.
1. What if the South won the Civil War?
Effect: America becomes one nation again in 1960.
Explanation: In a 1960 article published in Look magazine, author and Civil War buff MacKinlay Kantor envisioned a history in which the Confederate forces won the Civil War in 1863, forcing the despised President Lincoln into exile. The Southern forces annex Washington, DC renaming it the District of Dixie. The USA moves its capital to Columbus, Ohio now called ;Columbia but can no longer afford to buy Alaska from the Russians. Texas, unhappy with the new arrangement, declares its independence in 1878. Under international pressure, the Southern states gradually abolish slavery. After fighting together in two world wars, the three nations are reunified in 1960 a century after South Carolinas secession had led to the Civil War in the first place.
2. What if Charles Lindbergh were elected President in 1940?
Effect: America joins the Nazis.
3. What if Hitler successfully invaded Russia?
Effect: The Fuhrer is revered in history as a great leader.
4. What if James Dean had survived his car crash?
Effect: Robert Kennedy survives his assassination attempt.
5. What if President Kennedy had survived the assassination attempt?
Effect: Republicans win every election for the next 30 years.
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