The Reason Sanders Appears Equally Electable
These Bernie or bust voters that come off the sidelines for Sanders in our survey are almost entirely limited to one group: Democrats and independents under age 35. These voters are about 11 percentage points more likely to say they would vote for Democrats if Sanders is nominated and almost all of them say they would not vote at all or vote third party if hes not on the ballot.
However, the Bernie or bust phenomenon appears almost entirely limited to left-leaning young people, who are usually a small share of the overall electorate. This stands in contrast to many theories of Sanderss electoral appeal: For example, whites without a college degree a demographic some speculate Sanders could win over are actually more likely to say they will vote for Trump against Sanders than against the other Democrats. The same is true of the rest of the electorate, except left-leaning young people.
This finding in our data mirrors many other surveys: Morning Consult finds dramatic increases in young Americans stated turnout intentions when asked how they would vote in matchups between Sanders and Trump.
Trump Can Absolutely Kill Him: Wall Street Shrugs Off Sanders
The finance world is treating the prospect of a President Sanders much like it generally dismissed a possible President Trump in 2016.
Sen. Bernie Sanders. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images
02/12/2020 12:36 PM EST
An avowed democratic socialist narrowly won the New Hampshire primary, propelled by promises to jack up taxes on the rich, nationalize health care and take a sledgehammer to the nations banking behemoths.
Wall Street has so far reacted to the rise of Sen. Bernie Sanders with a massive yawn because few in the industry think the Vermont senator has a real shot at becoming president.
Stocks continue to pop to new highs even as Sanders climbs the Democratic field and pledges to come after the wealthy with a zealous passion.
Thats because the overwhelming consensus on Wall Street these days is that should Sanders wind up as the Democratic nominee sliding past a handful of moderates also at the top of the field he would get demolished by President Donald Trump in the general election.
Theres no Bernie fear at all, because I think the general view is that he is just way too far left of a candidate to beat Trump and a more moderate candidate would be much more competitive, said Steve Massocca of Wedbush Equity Management. If Bernie becomes the candidate and you assume Wall Street wants Trump to win again and I think they do then this is nothing but good news.
The basic message from Wall Street on Sanders: Its just way too early to freak out.
New States New Troubles
As the focus turns to Nevada, which holds its caucus a week from Saturday, Sanders is facing criticism from a different direction. The state’s powerful Culinary Union is circulating literature suggesting Sanders’s plan for replacing private health insurance with a government-run programme will abolish their union-negotiated plans.
The union then released a statement saying that Sanders supporters, upon learning of the union’s criticism, had “viciously” attacked the organisation.
Already Sanders’ Democratic opponents, sensing a vulnerability in Nevada, are positioning themselves as defenders of union healthcare plans.
“Let’s be clear: attacks on the union are unacceptable,” Klobuchar wrote in a tweet. “I come from a family of proud union members and I know when unions are strong, America is strong”
Four years ago Nevada was the staging ground for Clinton’s counterattack, as she won over union support in Las Vegas hotels and restaurants – even without an outright endorsement.
A family split over Bernie Sanders
If Sanders stumbles in Nevada again, the momentum he gained over the past two weeks could be lost, opening the door for one of the candidates he beat in New Hampshire – or for another, unexpected candidate who looms on the horizon in the weeks ahead.
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Opinion: Bernie Sanders Cannot Beat Trump
Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., greets supporters during a rally at the Mesquite Arena Feb. 14 in Mesquite, Texas.
There is no question that Bernie Sanders is a draw of sorts and a solid base. He has promised free college tuition, canceling of student loans and Medicare for all. His only answer when asked where the money will come from is: We will get it from the rich, the Wall Street people and the billionaires who have stolen from you.
It sounds good to some people. His rallies, just like Trump, attract hardcore supporters who revel in Bernies frothing at the mouth, his white hair waving and his blasting income inequality, the rich and, of course, Donald Trump.
Bernie has the fundraising apparatus to stay in the race to the end, so why cant Bernie beat Trump?
Here is why.
Bernie calls himself a socialist. That will become an attack word for the Republicans. They will shift being a socialist to saying he is a communist a communist who wants to take your money and redistribute it so everyone is equal. Whether that is true or not wont matter since when did Trump ever tell the truth?
Next, Sanders will be skewered because of his age. Hes nearing 80 years old and he looks every bit of it. Then there is his health. Having had a heart attack, literally several months ago, is not a plus. Trump easily will depict him as a doddering old man.
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Can Sanders Beat Trump A Growing Number Of Democratic Voters Say Yes
By Joseph Ax
6 Min Read
NEW YORK – Bernie Sanders Democratic presidential rivals warn that nominating the self-described democratic socialist will ensure President Donald Trumps re-election, but a growing number of the partys voters see the senator as their best chance of winning in November.
Sanders dominating performance in last weeks Nevada caucuses, powered by growing support across age, race and ideology, has set off alarm bells among Democratic Party officials who believe putting the progressive stalwart at the top of the ticket will harm the partys chances up and down the ballot.
Sanders electability was a prime topic at Tuesdays Democratic presidential debate in South Carolina. Rivals contended his ambitious liberal policy ideas, such as Medicare for All, which would replace private health insurance, would be an electoral catastrophe, costing the party the White House and control of Congress.
But the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Sanders rising momentum in the race – a near win in Iowa, a narrow victory in New Hampshire and a decisive win in Nevada – has given him more credibility with Democratic voters.
Some 26% of Democrats and independents polled Feb. 17-25 said they believed Sanders was the strongest Democrat in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, compared with 20% who picked billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg and 17% who named former Vice President Joe Biden.
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MAJOR CONCERNS AMONG MODERATES
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Who Bernie Sanders Vs Donald Trump Polls Are Saying Would Win The Potential 2020 Match
When faced with questions about his electability, Sen. Bernie Sanders, the current frontrunner in the 2020 Democratic race, can point to a lot of recent polling in which he is leading President Donald Trump, often comfortably and by a wider margin than his rivals.
However, there are ominous signs for Sanders, an independent from Vermont and a democratic socialist, in polls from swing states that will decide who enters the White House on inauguration day 2021. And, so far out from the election, the polling either way is not reliable.
“They are especially unhelpful this round because the head-to-head match-ups are actually pretty close,” Dr. Andrew Wroe, senior lecturer in American politics at the U.K.’s University of Kent, told Newsweek.
“None of the Democratic candidates has a particularly healthy lead over Trump in these hypothetical contests. Only a foolish gambler would set great store by them. Without a nominee, it’s difficult and unwise to start making projections.
“And while Super Tuesday next week might help clarify the situation, it could still be months before the primary contest is sewn up, perhaps even going all the way to the Democratic convention in Wisconsin in mid-July.”
Moderates argue Sanders is too left-wing to win over the independents and conservatives needed to defeat Trump and his socialistic campaign will turn off too many votersincluding some Democratsto be successful at the election.
North Carolina To Delay Results
North Carolina election officials voted unanimously to extend voting by 40 minutes on Tuesday.
The extension will also likely mean the delay of official results in the stateâs primary until 8:10 p.m. Itâs not clear whether cable news networks will announce projections or hold off until polls close.
North Carolina, which announced the delay on Twitter, had been scheduled to be the next state to close after Virginia and Vermont, at 7:30 p.m.
âJohn Fritze
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Bernie Sanders Isn’t Even My Favorite Senator Running For The 2020 Nomination But I See His Potential To Unite The Democratic Party And Oust Trump
If moderate Democrats are serious when they say their only concern is beating President Donald Trump, they should get used to the thought of backing Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
If you believe in saving democracy, the courts and the planet, and reversing the unrepentant cruelty, corruption and carelessness that define the current administration, you have a duty to at least consider the candidacy of the most popular senator in America, the top fundraiser in the Democratic primaries, and the man who has generally beaten Trump in head-to-head polls for five years now.
Sure, you cant ignore a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that shows socialism half of Sanders democratic socialist brand about as unpopular as capitalism is popular. Conventional wisdom suggests Republicans would love to run against a socialist as the stock market continually hits new highs, raising all boats that happen to float on a sea of 401s.
But every expert in conventional wisdom has one thing in common: Not one of them has ever beaten Trump.
Bernie Sanderss Electability Argument Falls Apart In Michigan
The Rust Belt has been central to Bernie Sanderss case for the Presidency. Its factory towns were where he ground his arguments against the economic policies of the past half century. In the 2016 primaries, it was where he won surprising victories over Hillary Clinton, and, in the 2016 general election, it was where Clinton suffered shocking, narrow, and Electoral Collegeturning defeats against Donald Trump. In the elections aftermath, it was where you could find both white voters who sprang for Trump and black voters who didnt turn out for Clinton. Last April, Sanders took a four-day tour of the region, traversing Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Everywhere, he attracted huge crowds, and everywhere, in addition to his message of economic reform, he offered an electoral argument. Four years ago, despite losing the popular vote by three million votes, Donald Trump carried all of those states and won enough electoral votes to win the Presidency, he said at a rally in Madison. Together, we are going to make sure that that does not happen again.
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Bernie Started Winning Until He Didnt
The first two primary contests in Iowa and New Hampshire were messy, but Sanders walked away a winner in both.
He defied expectations in the third, Nevada, by securing the normally-moderate Latino vote in overwhelming numbers. Turnout in the state broke records, in part thanks to Sanders appeal.
Everything changed with the fourth state, South Carolina, where 40 per cent of the Democratic electorate is African American. An overwhelming majority of that demographic coalesced around Joe Biden.
The win was so secure it was announced within the first two minutes of votes being counted.
Itd be tough to overstate how critical this vote looked to US politics watchers.
African American voters are among the most consistently Democratic, and a group historically shown to be harmed by a Republican president.
With Sanders still preaching his big policies, Bidens win in South Carolina revealed that the voters at the core of the Democratic Party still had their minds set on one question: who would beat Trump?
Jason Johnson, former politics editor for the African American-focused publication The Root, put it this way:
Voting for Bernie Sanders requires that black people believe that white people will do something theyve never done: willingly and openly share the economic bounty of the United States.
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Bernie Is The Candidate Who Can Beat Trump Heres Why
Do you want to see Donald Trump defeated in 2020? Of course you do. The candidate who is best positioned to do exactly that: Bernie Sanders.
David McNew / Getty Images
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In the race for the Democratic nomination, one figure towers above the field: the large, misshapen form of President Donald Trump. The trauma of Trumps shock victory in November 2016, and the reign of greed, brutality, and arrogance that has followed seemingly impervious to organized opposition has given Trump a special standing among Democrats.
The polls are unanimous: a healthy majority of Democratic primary voters say that it is more important to find a candidate who can beat Trump than one who they agree with on the issues. This is not a standard view for voters opposed to an incumbent president. On the eve of his 2004 re-election campaign, for instance, fewer than half of all Democrats said the same about George W. Bush.
Across the primary campaign, Bernie Sanders and many of his supporters have argued that it is not enough to defeat Trump: we need to organize to transform the abysmal economic conditions that produced Trump, too. This is all very true.
But this primary season, anxious Democrats should trust their guts. It turns out that the candidate they like best, Bernie Sanders, is also the candidate with the best chance to knock Trump out of the White House.
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No Bernie Sanders Wouldnt Have Won
We can still debate whether or not Bernie Sanders would have won the 2016 presidential race had he, and not Hillary Clinton, been the Democratic nominee. But there should be no debate about 2020.
No, Sanders wouldnt have won. Elizabeth Warren wouldnt have won either. And while it is less clear how moderates like Amy Klobuchar or Pete Buttigieg would have ended up, there are strong reasons to believe they wouldnt have won either.
Give Democrats, generally, some credit here. In every single poll they said the number one criteria of their 2020 presidential candidate was someone who could beat Trump. Eventually they decided this candidate was Biden. Turns out they chose correctly. And given the tight nature of the election, it is possible that of the 27 Democrats who ran for the presidency, Biden may have been the only one who could have won it.
This post-election conversation may have been different had Biden won in a landslide. If that happened, there where would be some progressives who would have wondered, logically enough, if a more liberal candidate could have won and brought more bold policies, like supporting the Green New Deal or Medicare for All, both issues popular among the party base but which Biden doesnt support. And they may have wondered if they should have, as the signs said, settled for Biden.
With full hindsight there, they were correct to do so. Here are three reasons why Biden, and only Biden, could have won on Nov. 3.
Class Politics At Scale
Our enthusiasm about a possible Sanders versus Trump contest isnt confined to the prospect that Sanders will win. How Sanders can beat Trump has enormous implications for the future of American politics.
First, we should remember a simple fact of scale, easy to forget if you follow politics as a vocation or an obsession: general elections are much, much larger than primaries.
About 31 million people voted in the 2016 Democratic primary, one of the most hotly contested nominating contests in U.S. history. Over 136 million voted in the general election. The same ratio applies to campaign spending: together, Clinton and Sanders spent about $445 million in their primary race. In the general election, Clinton and Trump spent about $1.8 billion.
Using the 2016 primary race as his platform, Sanders was able to demonstrate that radical left-wing ideas like Medicare For All, tuition-free public college, and a $15 minimum wage actually had an enormous base of support, far beyond any niche of self-defined progressives. This revelation has already left a deep imprint on the Democratic Party which has absorbed much of Sanderss program, either in fact or in rhetoric and will probably shape American politics for years to come.
A Sanders general election campaign would present an opportunity of the same kind, but on a scale roughly four times as large.
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After Strong Finishes In Iowa And New Hampshire Sanders Hopes To Win Texas
9:12 PM on Feb 14, 2020 CST
MESQUITE Bernie Sanders on Friday said he will win Texas on the strength of a multigenerational movement, and then oust President Donald Trump from the White House.
Were going to win the state of Texas,â Sanders told several thousand supporters in Mesquite. Were going to beat Trump. Were going to transform this country.
Sanders said Trump had steered the nation off course and continued to be a flawed president.
We cannot have a president who continues to be a pathological liar, Sanders said.
More than 4,000 people gathered at the Mesquite rodeo arena to hear Sanders, who is riding high after strong finishes in the early contest states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
The Texas presidential primary is March 3, and a win here could cement Sanders as the Democratic Partys front-runner for the nomination against Trump.
Sanders sought to assure voters that his progressive policies were nothing to fear. Rivals have warned that the nomination a self-described Democratic socialist against Trump would lead to certain defeat. He said that was a sign that his campaign is resonating.
The establishment is getting very nervous, Sanders said. He said that his campaign is not just about beating Trump, but taking on the Democratic Party establishment and the greed of powerful corporations what he called the âbillionaire class.
At the rally, Sanders said, this country belongs to all of us, not just the one percent.
