Trump’s Bad Numbers Get Worse
Those findings have deteriorated a bit since the summer when by 65%-28% of voters wanted him to forgo another bid for the White House.
Trump’s standing among Republicans has sagged, although he is still more popular within his own party than Biden is in his. GOP voters by 56%-39% want Trump to run again. That’s a decline of a few points from July when by 60%-34% Republicans supported another race.
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Oklahomas Governor Discusses His Unexpectedly Close Race
Gov. Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma a Republican in a competitive race for re-election in one of the nations reddest states argued that Democrats were spreading disinformation about his record.
The reason theres a tight race is theres been unprecedented dollars spent against me, to the tune of $50 million to spread lies and chaos, Mr. Stitt said on Fox News Sunday. The disinformation is just unbelievable. Theyre literally sending out fliers to people in rural parts of our state saying Im going to close the rural schools. Nothing could be farther from the truth.
Joy Hofmeister, his Democratic opponent, opposes vouchers that would give parents government funding for private-school tuition, an idea Mr. Stitt supports. Ms. Hofmeister has called the idea a rural school killer arguing that it would divert limited funds from public schools to private schools, which are not an option in many rural areas and that argument appears to have been powerful among rural voters.
Question15 Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote Who Do You Think Would Do A Better Job
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoTrump 38% 82% 2% 33% 45% 31% 32% 53%Biden 55 11 95 56 46 62 64 41DK/NA 8 7 3 11 8 7 4 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspTrump 26% 42% 45% 35% 52% 39% 45% 5% 34%Biden 62 51 50 57 42 56 49 87 53DK/NA 13 7 4 8 6 5 6 8 13
TrendTREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling the response to the coronavirus: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS........ Trump Biden DK/NAOct 22, 2020 38 55 8Sep 23, 2020 39 55 5Sep 02, 2020 40 56 5
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With Ratings Maybe It’s All Relative
Biden’s job-approval rating has risen since the summer to 44% approve-53% disapprove. His standing is still underwater by 9 points, but it beats his July rating of 39%-56%.
In the new poll, the president’s favorable-unfavorable rating is 45%-51%.
That 6-point deficit doesn’t shine until you compare it to Trump’s rating, of 35%-58%. Or consider the comparison with the other branches of government: The president’s favorable rating is slightly higher than that for the Supreme Court, at 41%, and it swamps that of the U.S. Congress, at 27%.
Question11 Would You Say That
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoYes 64% 32% 95% 67% 59% 69% 75% 53%No 30 61 3 28 35 26 20 41DK/NA 6 7 2 5 6 5 5 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspYes 69% 61% 60% 69% 57% 65% 61% 86% 66%No 22 34 36 27 38 30 34 11 26DK/NA 9 4 4 4 6 5 5 3 8
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Electoral College Certificates And Votes By State
State | |
---|---|
232 | |
Notes |
*Maine appoints its electors proportionally. Biden-Harris won in the First Congressional District and took the state Trump-Pence won the Second Congressional District. Maineâs electoral votes were proportionally awarded accordingly: for President, Biden 3 and Trump 1 for Vice President, Harris 3 and Pence 1. **Nebraska appoints its electors proportionally. Trump-Pence won in the First and Third Congressional Districts and took the state Biden-Harris won the Second Congressional District. Nebraskaâs electoral votes were proportionally awarded accordingly: for President, Trump 4 and Biden 1 for Vice President, Pence 4 and Harris 1. |
â¦a Process, not a Place
The Office of the Federal Register is a part of the National Archives and Records Administration and, on behalf of the Archivist of the United States, coordinates certain functions of the Electoral College between the States and Congress. It has no role in appointing electors and has no contact with them.
Bill Clinton Says Republicans Are Gambling That Voters Are So Angry They Stop Thinking
Former President Bill Clinton rallied a crowd of several dozen union members in Henderson, Nev., a suburb near Las Vegas, saying that Senator Catherine Cortez Masto had been too modest in touting her effectiveness in Washington and that Republicans are relying on anger and apathy to win Tuesday.
Theyre gambling that they have this magic moment where well all be so mad, well stop thinking, he said Sunday. Anyone who wants to make you mad, anyone who wants you to stop thinking is not your friend.
Speaking from a small stage alongside Ms. Cortez Masto, who is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate, Mr. Clinton urged the crowd to warn their family and friends not to cast a protest vote for Republicans, who he said would be terrible for working class people and endanger Social Security.
Between now and Tuesday, people here could change the outcome of this election, he said.
Mr. Clinton acknowledged persistent frustrations over high inflation but said that it was a global phenomenon that Republicans would do nothing to scale back and that they would worsen economic conditions for much of the country.
He praised the federal minimum wage increase that was widely supported by Democrats, including Ms. Cortez Masto, saying it would help reach more people.
We should never close the door on them, he said. We can say we want an America for everybody.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
Trump ‘apologizes’ To Matt Gaetz On Behalf Of America America Rolls Its Eyes
Kevin McCarthy, the frontrunner for House Speaker if Republicans retake the House, has privately said that a serious Biden impeachment process would likely be poor politics for the GOP, according to two people familiar with the matter. McCarthy, the people say, has noted that impeaching Biden risks boosting his approval rating. In an October interview with Punchbowl News, McCarthy downplayed the possibility of impeachment but didnt rule it out.
When we took the majority, the Clinton impeachment sapped out a lot of momentum that could have gone towards crafting policy instead, says former congressman Jack Kingston, who has also advised Trump and acted as a surrogate during his presidency. I dont think working to impeach a president who is going to be a lame duck this time next week would be a good expenditure of time.
Trump himself has inquired about potential political pitfalls of impeachment in his conversations with lawmakers. The president definitely said Biden deserves it, but he also asked if it would even work and if impeachment would be good for polls, says one of the sources, recalling a conversation that occurred in the past three months.
Spokespeople for Trump and McCarthy did not respond to requests for comment.
Other MAGA lawmakers, however, have said that impeaching Biden and his administration is critical for the party if it takes control of the House.
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Question5 Is Your Opinion Of Donald Trump Favorable Unfavorable Or Haven’t You Heard Enough About Him
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoFavorable 40% 86% 4% 35% 46% 34% 32% 57%Unfavorable 55 12 93 57 48 61 66 41Hvn't hrd enough 2 - 3 4 3 2 1 1REFUSED 3 2 1 4 3 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspFavorable 29% 42% 47% 39% 54% 42% 48% 6% 36%Unfavorable 58 54 51 56 42 57 50 83 55Hvn't hrd enough 8 2 1 1 1 - 1 6 3REFUSED 5 2 1 4 3 1 2 5 6
TrendTREND: Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............. Hvn't Fav Unfav HrdEn REFOct 22, 2020 40 55 2 3Sep 23, 2020 41 55 2 2Sep 02, 2020 41 56 1 2Sep 14, 2016 35 59 3 3 Aug 25, 2016 33 61 4 2
For Fetterman The Campaign Trail Doubles As A Road To Recovery
In the final days of an extraordinary Pennsylvania Senate race, in which a stroke survivor is running against a celebrity television physician, John Fetterman is proactively acknowledging that his recovery remains a work in progress, leaning into the issue with a mix of humor, sarcasm and notes of empathy for others struggling with health challenges, as he competes in one of the most consequential contests in the U.S. midterms.
Over the course of four events a Thursday gathering, a Friday discussion with a Philadelphia-area congresswoman and two major Saturday rallies Mr. Fetterman came across as high-energy and forceful at times, but uneven in crispness and fluency. He sometimes stumbled over a word, corrected himself midsentence or tacked on extraneous words. Abortion decisions belong only between a woman and their doctor, he said on Thursday. Always has should been, and always should will.
But all of those appearances were a far cry from Mr. Fettermans debate performance last month, where his strikingly halting answers alarmed Democrats in Pennsylvania and nationally as they worried about a seat that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Mr. Fettermans gatherings bring fiercely devoted fans and sometimes have the feel of a movement campaign, but the question is how big that movement is, in a sharply divided state and at a challenging time for Democrats across the country.
Biden is working the line amid countless cellphones and college students.
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Us Midterms: Trump And Biden Fire Up Voters As Election Looms
President Joe Biden and ex-President Donald Trump held duelling rallies as the election to reshape Congress entered its final campaign day.
Mr Biden and Mr Trump made their last-minute pleas to voters in New York and Florida respectively.
Momentum has shifted recently towards Republicans, who are trying to wrestle both chambers from Democratic control.
They are favourites to win control of the House of Representatives but the Senate is a toss-up, polling suggests.
Winning one chamber would severely hinder President Biden’s legislative agenda.
With the campaign in its final day on Monday, his party is braced for losses even in parts of the country where Democrats usually do well.
He spoke at a rally in New York on Sunday to support Governor Kathy Hochul, who is fending off an unexpectedly stiff challenge from Trump-backed Republican candidate Lee Zeldin.
She has received last-minute help from some Democratic star names – former President Bill Clinton, Vice-President Kamala Harris and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
In his speech, Mr Biden called the election “an inflection point” that will determine the next 20 years. He told voters at Sarah Lawrence College that they are choosing between two “fundamentally different visions of America”.
Watch: President Biden appeals to young voters at rally
Meanwhile his predecessor in the White House, Mr Trump, was in Miami where he spoke for over an hour, hammering Democrats for leading the country towards “communism”.
In Final Midterm Push Biden Warns Of Threats Trump Hints At Another Run
YONKERS, N.Y., Nov 6 – President Joe Biden warned that a Republican win in Tuesday’s midterm elections could weaken U.S. democracy, while former President Donald Trump hinted at another White House bid, two days before votes in which Republicans could gain control of both chambers of Congress.
The comments, made at dueling rallies held in New York and Florida, highlighted the grim prospects that Biden’s Democrats face, despite fulfilling his promises to boost clean-energy incentives and rebuild crumbling roads and bridges.
Republicans have hammered Biden for high inflation and increased crime in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and non-partisan forecasters favor them to win control of the House of Representatives – and possibly the Senate as well. Democrats’ early leads in Senate races in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada have evaporated.
Control of even one chamber would allow Republicans to stymie Democrat Biden’s legislative agenda and launch potentially damaging investigations.
Biden warned that many Republican candidates are threatening democratic norms by echoing Trump’s false claims about a stolen election in 2020.
“Democracy is literally on the ballot,” he told students at Sarah Lawrence College, north of New York City. “You can’t only love the country when you win.”
“I will probably have to do it again, but stay tuned,” he said, castigating the Biden administration for everything from violent crime to dirty airports.
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Question6 When Did You Decide Who To Vote For In This Year’s Election For President: In The Last Two Weeks In The Last Two Months In The Last Six Months Or Before That
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1........................................ WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoLast two weeks 4% 3% 2% 8% 6% 3% 3% 3%Last two months 7 6 4 11 8 6 7 7Last six months 20 20 17 24 18 22 21 17Before that 68 71 77 55 66 69 69 72DK/NA 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspLast two weeks 10% 4% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 6% 6%Last two months 6 8 7 8 8 7 7 2 8Last six months 30 22 19 12 19 17 18 16 31Before that 53 66 72 75 68 73 71 76 54DK/NA 2 1 - 2 1 1 1 - 2
Demographic Profiles Of Trump And Biden Voters
As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. Overall, Biden voters were younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and less likely to live in rural areas than Trump voters.
In 2020, 85% of voters who cast a ballot for Trump were White non-Hispanic this compares with just 61% of Biden voters. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016.
Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. That is significantly higher than the share of Trump voters who were Black .
The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters.
Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. And rural voters remain a significantly larger portion of the Republican electorate.
However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. In 2016, about half of Clintons voters described their communities as suburban , while 32% said they were from an urban area and 19% were from a rural area.
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Question1 If The Election For President Were Being Held Today And The Candidates Were Joe Biden The Democrat And Donald Trump The Republican For Whom Would You Vote As Of Today Do You Lean More Toward Joe Biden The Democrat Or Donald Trump The Republican
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoBiden 51% 10% 95% 47% 41% 60% 62% 37%Trump 41 87 2 37 48 34 35 57SMONE ELSE 2 - - 4 4 - 1 2DK/NA 6 2 3 11 7 6 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspBiden 54% 48% 47% 55% 36% 55% 46% 81% 51%Trump 29 45 47 39 57 42 49 5 35SMONE ELSE 4 3 1 - 4 1 2 1 1DK/NA 13 4 4 5 4 3 3 13 14 VOTING METHOD Q2... In Mail/ Early Person Absnt VtLocBiden 28% 69% 57%Trump 65 21 35SMONE ELSE 2 2 1DK/NA 5 8 6
A Drag Performers Criticism Of Kari Lake Is Deeply Personal
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. The warnings for whats at stake for democracy in the midterms have come from top Democrats in the typical blitz of campaign rallies and canvassing events leading up to Tuesdays midterm election.
They also have come at a drag brunch in Arizona.
The popular drag performer Barbra Seville, whose real name is Richard Stevens, urged the crowd at The Hot Chick, a hangout spot and game bar in Scottsdale, to oppose the Republican candidate for governor, Kari Lake.
If you havent voted, make sure that you get out and vote because I have been involved in this years political cycle, the performer told the crowd on Sunday. I am a former friend of the most dangerous politician in the country Kari Lake.
Arizona has been at the center of the fight over the future of the nations elections as the top Republicans on the ballot have helped fuel former President Donald J. Trumps falsehoods of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election. And Mr. Stevens has emerged as a pivotal voice against Ms. Lake in particular.
He and Ms. Lake, a former longtime Phoenix news anchor, were once friends. Mr. Stevens said Ms. Lake used to come to his drag shows, had him perform at her house and invited him as a news contributor to comment on L.G.B.T.Q. issues.
But they broke ties after she began her campaign for governor as a Trump-endorsed candidate amplifying election lies and criticizing drag performers.
Jesse McKinley
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