Friday, March 22, 2024

Who Has The Best Chance To Beat Trump 2020

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How Democrats Won In 2018

Bernie Sanders Assesses The 2020 Presidential Field

Two important storylines about the Democratic Party emerged from the 2018 election.

The first is the rise of the far left, best symbolized by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezs upset victory against longtime Democrat Joe Crowley in New York. Ocasio-Cortez instantly became a leading voice in the new progressive wing of the party.

The second storyline to emerge has gotten far less attention but explains how Democrats actually won. While Ocasio-Cortez represents an important new force in the party, her win over a fellow Democrat didnt change the party makeup of the House. That bragging right goes to a crop of moderate Democrats who ran careful, pragmatic campaigns. They won on tangible policy ideas, like preserving the Affordable Care Acts provision on preexisting conditions. They werent calling for a revolution, so much as a return to stability.

An analysis by Alan I. Abramowitz at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia found that candidates in the 2018 midterms who supported Medicare-for-all performed worse than those who did not.


Its true that the progressive left helped inspire enthusiasm, including a surge of new voters and young voters. Latinx voters made up a larger vote share in 2018 than in previous elections.

Ghitza also found that even though many of the Democratic wins were in suburban districts, rural areas largely moved in a Democratic direction, often by even larger margins than the suburbs.

From Opinion: The Trickiness Of Electability

In this new weekly feature, our colleagues from The New York Timess Opinion section will share expert analysis and perspectives from across the political spectrum. In todays installment, theres more to read about why electability is so unpredictable.

There is a home base that all the conversation about the Democratic presidential primary comes back to in the end: Primary voters prioritize, above all, someone who can defeat President Trump.

In any election that features an incumbent president, the main goal of the out-of-power party is to nominate a candidate well-suited to defeating the incumbent. Thats why both Republican Party elites and less enthusiastic conservative voters got behind Mitt Romney after a series of polls in 2011 showed he was the only Republican beating President Barack Obama in head-to-head matchups.


This year, Democrats desire to replace the incumbent has reached a fever pitch, arguably higher than its ever been for either party. But paradigm-shifting presidents have complicated the idea of electability, as Adam Jentleson, a former deputy chief of staff for Senator Harry Reid, pointed out this week in an Op-Ed.

Mr. Obama won his first election despite being a black man who had admitted to using cocaine, who was caught on tape calling working-class whites bitter people who cling to guns and religion, and who sat in the pews with a pastor who declared, God damn America, Mr. Jentleson said.

Talmon Joseph Smith

Trump Didn’t Steal The 2016 Election

Let’s start with what is still the toughest pill to swallow for Democrats: Trump won the White House fair and square.

The two-plus years of laser focus and high hopes connected to special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation were the clearest examples that all too many Democrats believe the only reason Donald Trump is president is because the Russians somehow helped him cheat. Even the release of the Mueller Report showing no direct evidence of that hasn’t stopped this narrative from continuing to be promoted regularly.


But let’s face it, this is a very good way for the Democrats to lose to Trump again in 2020. Just like in sports, the worst way to overcome a loss in politics is to go around believing you didn’t “really” lose and no real improvements or changes need to be made by your team to win next time.

Now just imagine if the Democrats spent as much time and effort on winning back the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as they have been in pursuing the Russia collusion obsession and the impeachment process. If the latest polls in those states tell us anything, those other efforts have only made things worse for the anti-Trump forces. It’s time to cut bait on the stolen election illusion.

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For Biden And Trump 2022 Is 2020 Sequel And 2024 Preview

WASHINGTON This years midterm elections are playing out as a strange continuation of the last presidential race and a potential preview of the next one.

Donald Trump, who refused to exit the stage after his defeat and continues to rally his supporters with lies about voter fraud, has spent months raging against Joe Biden, reshaping down-ballot campaigns that normally function as a straightforward referendum on the incumbent president.


The result is an episode of political shadowboxing with little precedent, as the current president and his immediate predecessor and possible future challenger crisscross the country in support of their partys candidates.

Even as he faces multiple investigations, including a criminal probe into the handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump has been holding raucous rallies in battleground states, where he alternates between touting his handpicked candidates and denouncing his enemies. He belittles and excoriates Biden while lying, as he did in Ohio last month, that we didnt lose the last election.


  • Newcomer wins seat on Louisiana Public Service Commission

  • Voters seem to have little appetite for a rematch.

    I believe I can beat Donald Trump again, he said.

    The Rest Of The Democratic Field

    Opinion

    The following candidates have odds that fall just outside the top 5 most likely Democrats to beat Donald Trump. Andrew Yang narrowly missed the cut, but we think his odds will get a boost when he takes the debate stage. The same is likely true for Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar. However, Beto, Booker, and Gillibrand are falling fast will need to come up with some way to stop the ship from sinking.


    Andrew Yang

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    How Public Money Influences The 2020 Odds

    Before breaking down the chances for each candidate, lets run down how money wagered by the public can affect the 2020 odds.

    • When enough public money is placed on a betting line for a candidate, oddsmakers will shift value away from that person by changing the odds from a less likely to more likely number which results in a less favorable payout for the bettor.
    • Take this example: Candidate A is favored at -150 which has a 58.26% implied probability or chance to win and Candidate B is the underdog at +130 and has a 41.74% chance to win.
    • But after Candidate A did something that the American public didnt like, money was then bet on the odds for Candidate B, which caused Candidate B to become the favorite at -200 while Candidate A fell to +170 .
    • The odds for a candidate will continue to fluctuate up and down until either the betting market consensus determines there is no more value at the current time or the outcome becomes known, and all bets are won or lost.

    This is why the betting odds board at online sportsbooks can be one of the best prediction markets youll find anywhere. How the public views a candidate at any point in time or on a specific issue can be seen in real-time based solely on which candidate is receiving the most money after the odds have been posted.

    Essentially, its like the old saying, Put your money where your mouth is.


    Opinioni’ve Been Talking About Beto O’rourke Since 2017 He’s A 2020 Democratic Frontrunner For A Reason

    Furthermore, there are two key demographics that swung for Trump in the 2016 election that Democrats need to win back in 2020: Independent voters and most importantly, suburban female voters. In the 2016 election, over 47 percent of Trumps voters were women a statistic that still shocks many pundits and analysts to this day. But due to the rhetoric and blunders of the White House, nearly 30 percent of those women now have a very poor impression of Trump according to a recent Pew Research Poll.

    Worse than just their sentiments toward Trump, though, suburban women who catapulted him into the White House swung blue in the midterm elections. A USA Today analysis of the 2018 midterm election found more than 80 suburban counties and cities with high incomes and large number of college-educated voters voted more Democratic than in 2016. These gains were huge for Democrats, but this demographic could change again in 2020 if Republicans were to get smart about their candidates, rhetoric, and strategy, which no one expects.

    These suburban and college-educated women who are increasingly aligning themselves with the Democratic party also describe themselves as mostly moderates looking for a government that compromises.

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    Peering At The Tea Leaves

    Another group of mobilization-focused candidates are offering a somewhat more restrained agenda and betting on energizing new voters because they embody demographic and generational change. Those contenders include Harris and Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Buttigieg, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro and the long-shot younger House members in the field, including Seth Moulton of Massachusetts and Eric Swalwell of California.


    The lines between these approaches are not inviolate. Harris edges close to Warren and Sanders in the leftward lean and ambition of her agenda Buttigieg, though a powerful symbol of change as a gay millennial candidate, tilts more toward the centrists than the progressives in his agenda and demeanor. And every candidate hopes, at least to some extent, to both mobilize nonvoters and persuade swing voters.

    Real elections evolve, Greenberg said. You are at a point in the race where people are carving out their space early in the process, with a lot of candidates but I wouldnt assume those strategies dont become blended as you move toward the election, after youve established your early wins and are running more broadly. I wouldnt assume that this is where they end.

    Running With A Record

    Trump Loses As GOP Governor Must Testify: GA Criminal Probe Escalating In 2022

    Eight years ago, Mr Trump was a political blank slate. With no record as an officeholder, voters could project their hopes and desires on to him. He could make expansive promises – so much winning! – without critics pointing to past shortcomings and failures.

    That’s not the case any more. While Mr Trump had some notable policy achievements during his four years in office, including tax cuts and criminal justice reform, he also had some prominent failures.

    Republicans will remember his inability to repeal Democratic healthcare reforms and his repeated promises of infrastructure investment that never came to fruition. And then there’s Mr Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which could open him up to attacks on multiple fronts.


    Democrats have long criticised his response as insufficiently aggressive, but there are some on the right who believe he went too far in supporting government-mandated mitigation efforts.

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    Yes Of Course Donald Trump Can Win In 2024

    When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably and immediately ask some version of this question: Is he going to run again? And can he win?

    The he there just in case youve spent the last six years on another planet is Donald Trump.

    And the answers to those questions are probably yes and definitely. As in, yes, Trump is probably going to run for president again in 2024. And, yes, he would have a very real chance of winning.


    Lets take the second half of that question first. A new Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump and President Joe Biden each at 45% among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, results that are largely unchanged since the last time WSJ asked the question in November.

    The simple fact is that if the 2020 presidential race was re-run today, it would effectively be a pure toss up.

    Which, if you think about it, makes sense. While Biden took more than 300 electoral votes, his margins in a series of swing states like Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were decidedly narrow. And had those states gone for Trump, he would have almost certainly been reelected.

    Now, that is putting the cart before the horse. So, lets return to the first question: Will Trump run?

    If you believe him, then yes.

    But, its true.

    Takeaways: Big Trump Win Election Deniers Advance In Nevada

    WASHINGTON Donald Trump notched a significant victory in South Carolina, where his preferred candidate easily ousted five-term Rep. Tom Rice, the first Republican to be booted from office after voting to impeach the former president last year. But another high-profile GOP target of Trump in the state, Rep. Nancy Mace, held back a challenger.

    Meanwhile, in Nevada on Tuesday, two election deniers who have tirelessly promoted the former presidents lies about voter fraud won their primaries for key positions of power in the state.

    Takeaways from the latest round of primary elections:

    SPLIT DECISION IN SOUTH CAROLINA

    Rice and Mace have been objects of Trumps anger ever since a mob of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol to stop the certification of Joe Bidens presidential election win.

    Their transgressions? Mace stated on national TV that Trumps entire legacy was wiped out by the attack, while Rice became an apostate for joining a small group of Republicans who voted with Democrats in favor of Trumps second impeachment.

    He threw a temper tantrum that culminated with the sacking of the United States Capitol, Rice told NBC News on Monday. Its a direct attack on the Constitution, and he should be held accountable.

    ELECTION DENIERS ADVANCE IN NEVADA

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    An Examination Of The 2020 Electorate Based On Validated Voters

    Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2020 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016 and 2018. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the three general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted.

    We surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. The surveys were supplemented with measures taken from annual recruitment and profile surveys conducted in 2018 and 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel , an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, turnout and vote choice in the three elections, and many other characteristics. Read more about the ATPs methodology.

    Here are the questions used for this report and its methodology.

    Validated voters, defined

    Here are some of the other key findings from the analysis:

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    Chris Christie Says Biden Has the Best Chance to Beat Trump in 2020 ...

    President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

    The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November, Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

    Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.

    The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.

    The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall, Mr Norpoth said.

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    There Are Some Obvious Problems With Biden

    In an ideal world, the Democrats would likely want a nominee younger than Biden, who is 77.

    Its also true that for a party coming off the historic election of the first African American president and that came within a razors edge of electing the first female president, theres something symbolically disappointing about retreating to another white man.

    This is made worse by the fact that when he was pressed to address his problematic personal treatment of women near the launch of his campaign, Biden was perfunctory and dismissive.

    Representation matters, and with Biden were not getting a real advance. But we dont live in an ideal world, and there isnt a younger and slightly more self-reflective version of Biden out there for Democrats to vote for.

    Theres way too much thats both tangibly and symbolically at stake with Trumps presence in the White House for Democrats to ignore the overwhelming evidence that the politicians with something on the line in tough races think Biden is the best chance to beat him.

    Joe Biden And Ron Desantis

    While many Trump-backed Republican candidates faltered in the midterms, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis won his re-election by a ludicrous 19 points. Thats the widest margin for a Florida gubernatorial victory in 40 years, just four years after DeSantis survived a nail-biter.

    Along the way, his national profile has continued to grow. A December Wall Street Journal poll pegged DeSantis name ID at 82 percent, just two points less than former Vice President Mike Pence. With more recognition came more support. Three pollsters POLITICO/Morning Consult, Harvard-Harris and YouGov sampled Republican primary voters both at the beginning of the year and after the midterms. In those polls, DeSantis average level of support nearly doubled, from 16.3 to 30.7 percent. In several post-midterm polls testing two-way Trump-DeSantis matchups among Republican registered voters, DeSantis has the advantage, with leads ranging from two to 23 points.

    DeSantis may have repainted Florida from purple to red, but Biden quarterbacked a midterm strategy that kept far more of the map blue than most anyone thought possible.

    Former President Donald Trump’s political stock fell dramatically in 2022, as his endorsements suffered big midterm losses while he continued to obsess over his own failed reelection bid in 2020.|Drew Angerer/Getty Images

    The Loser

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