Seth Moulton Tim Ryan Christopher Murphy
Millennials are expected to surpass baby boomers as the largest generation of eligible voters in 2020. So it would only make sense for a few politicians who might still get carded to run themselves.
Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts congressman, is a charismatic, intelligent Iraq war veteran who isnt afraid to call out party elders like Nancy Pelosi. Hes only 38, and its almost certainly too soon for him to have much of a chance at winning the nomination in 2020, but it doesnt hurt to put his name into the 2020 veepstakes.
At 44, Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio doesnt make the cut of being a millennial himself, but hes fashioned himself as a fresh face on Capitol Hill and he thinks he has an economics-focused message for members of that generation, especially those who live in working-class cities like his hometown near Youngstown.
Christopher Murphy, a 44-year-old Connecticut senator, is casting his message at a different segment of millennials those who live on Twitter, where he offers running political commentary, or listen to podcasts like Pod Save America, where hes made several appearances. His and Mr. Ryans campaign slogans write themselves: Youre Only as Old as You Feel.
Joe Biden Can Beat Trump In 2020 But Will The Democratic Party Let Him Run
Matthew Cooper U.S.Joe BidenDonald Trump2020 ElectionDemocrats
Five monthsfive agonizing months. That’s how long it had been since Joe Biden’s eldest son, Beau, died of an aggressive brain tumor. For three years, Joe had cared for Beau, an Iraq War veteran and Delaware’s attorney general, but by the spring of 2015 he was gone. The pain of his son’s death was still raw for the vice president as he stepped behind a microphone in the White House’s Rose Garden in October 2015, flanked by his wife, Jill, and President Barack Obama.
You could see Joe Biden’s hurt his normally ebullient smile was gone, replaced by a fatigued grimace. Facing a small crowd and live cameras, Biden announced what many had long expected: He would not be running for president in 2016. The longtime senator was not emotionally ready. The “grieving process,” Biden said, “doesn’t respect or much care about things like filing deadlines or debates and primaries and caucuses.”
The plan was in place, but the night before Biden’s Rose Garden speech, Donilon suddenly reversed course. “You shouldn’t do this,” he told Biden, who had to admit he was right. For months, he had been wrestling with Beau’s death, sometimes welling up in public, most notably in an appearance on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert in September, and he’d come to believe he wasn’t capable of giving all his energy to a presidential bid.
America may want him to run, but do the Democrats?
#HimToo
Liberals Shouldnt Be So Worried About Biden
A fear among liberal skeptics of Biden is that his pragmatism represents a retreat from the partys leftward momentum. Thats true in one sense. He doesnt pass progressive purity tests on issues like Medicare-for-all. On paper, his plans are less ambitious.
But hed still be the most progressive Democratic nominee in history if he won.
His plans line up closer with the center of gravity in the party, but in recent years the center has moved much further left than even during the Barack Obama years. For example, Biden isnt willing to replace the Affordable Care Act with a new, single-payer system like Warren or Sanderss Medicare-for-all. But he does want to improve on it with a major new addition, an expansive public option. Hed also cap premiums at 8.5 percent of a patients income.
These might seem small relative to the scope of Medicare-for-all, but Medicare-for-all has pretty much no chance of becoming law, and its likely to spark a damaging intraparty fight among congressional Democrats that harms the chances of passing any health care bill.
Lamb pointed out that there probably arent enough votes in the Democratic-controlled House to pass it, never mind a Republican-controlled Senate . And the key Senate Democrats who will drive health care policy if Democrats retake the gavel have already said Medicare-for-all is a nonstarter.
Woodfin agreed, echoing Lambs point that most Americans dont favor Medicare-for-all even among Democrats, the enthusiasm has .
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Which States Will Decide This Election
As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.
Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.
In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.
Biden And Sanders Both Would Face Stark Challenges Running Against Trump
If there is one thing essential for Democrats as they look toward taking on President Trump in November, it is a nominee who can drive strong, perhaps historic, turnout, either by reassembling the coalition that twice elected Barack Obama or by mobilizing masses of new voters.
Yet the party is now barreling toward its nominating convention with the race mostly whittled down to two candidates in their late 70s who both have big weaknesses in reaching beyond their respective bases.
Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden will face a crucial test in the remaining states in the Democratic primary, where both will have to recalibrate and to some extent rebrand to broaden their appeal and unify a fractured party. It is a tall order for two men who are products of an earlier generation of politics.
To beat Trump is going to take an all-of-the-above approach, what we saw in the midterm elections: expanded youth turnout, expanded turnout among people of color and continuing to win crossover votes among better-educated independents and Republicans, said Tom Bonier, chief executive of TargetSmart, a Democratic data analytics firm.
Whoever the Democratic nominee is, they are going to have to check all those boxes, he said.
Bonier and other party strategists are confident that challenge will prove easier to overcome than the challenges Trump faces in rebuilding his own winning coalition. But the risks are large for both Democratic candidates, and for the party.
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Who Can Beat Trump Hint: Its Not Just Other White Dudes
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As much as a patriarchal society would have us believe that only elder white malesnamely Joe Biden and Bernie Sanderspossess the all-powerful electability to defeat President Trump in the 2020 election, a new poll offers at least one data point to the contrary. According to Quinnipiacs latest national poll, Biden, Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, andCory Booker could all handily beat Trump, too. Hows that for electability?
Quinnipiac found that Biden remains ahead by landslide proportions: in a head-to-head match-up against the president, the former vice president would win by double-digits53% support to Trumps 40%. Sanders is not far behind, with the poll predicting a 51% win over Trumps 42. But perhaps the most illuminating finding is that these veteran straight, white males arent the Democrats only hope to defeat Trump. Quinnipiac found that women can win: both Harris and Warren would safely beat Trump, with 49% of the vote to his 41 and 42%, respectively. And so could an openly gay candidate and a candidate of color: Buttigieg and Booker are tied with 47% over Trumps 42.
The Proof Is In The Polling
This research suggests, then, that Mr Biden could perform better than his competitors against Mr Trump. He is more moderate than Mr Sanders, so both more likely to attract swing voters and less likely to motivate Republicans to vote against him. His strength with both black and racially conservative white voters could make a big difference in swing states. Recent polling from the New York Times and Siena College suggests that 6% of the electorate would vote for Mr Bidenbut not for Elizabeth Warrenagainst Mr Trump.
His advantage is evident in polls. According to The Economists analysis of publicly released polling data, Mr Biden performs better against Mr Trump than his competitors, nationwide and in swing states. Although polls of the general election conducted this early before a contest are not perfect, they are still helpful.
Mr Biden is not faultless. He is uninspiring on the stump and in debates. His Washington ties may inspire resentment from voters sceptical of elites. His candidacy would also represent a safety-first strategy for the Democrats at a time when many in the party desperately want to push a much more progressive economic, racial and social agenda. Yet for all that he still appears to be the Democrats best option in a contest against Mr Trump.
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Who Can Beat Trump Who Knows
The Democratic candidates are all debating a singular issue. New polls offer insights, not answers.
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At Wednesday nights Democratic presidential debate, the candidates bickered and battled over health care policy over Michael Bloombergs record and his right to represent a party that he only recently rejoined over the possible dangers of nominating a democratic socialist.
But in a way, it all seemed like just window dressing around one big question: Who has the best chance in November? Every policy critique seemed to lead inexorably back to this issue of electability.
In his very first comments at the debate, Mr. Bloomberg didnt just criticize Senator Bernie Sanderss plan to create a single-payer health care system he said it would cause Democrats to lose the general election.
I dont think theres any chance of the senator beating President Trump, Mr. Bloomberg said. You dont start out by saying Ive got 160 million people, Im going to take away the insurance plan that they love.
If thats a way to beat Donald Trump, wow, I would be very surprised, Mr. Sanders said.
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% Of Democratic Voters Believe Bernie Sanders Would Beat Trump In 2020 Election New Poll Shows
Nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters believe Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont would defeat incumbent President Donald Trump if Sanders were selected to be the party’s presidential nominee, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday.
Pollsters asked respondents who were Democrats or leaned Democratic which candidate they thought would win against Trump if that candidate were to represent the party in November. Seventy-two percent said that they thought Sanders would defeat Trump in a one-on-one match-up, while 24 percent thought Trump would win and 4 percent had no opinion.
Of all the Democratic candidates, Sanders was the one who respondents said they believed had the best chance of defeating the incumbent. Billionaire businessman and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg performed second-best in this question69 percent of respondents said they thought he could beat Trump in the general, while 28 percent said they thought the victory would go to Trump and 3 percent said they did not have an opinion.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, who performed first in most national polls prior to the February 3 Iowa caucuses, was third. Sixty-eight percent of respondents to this question said they expected him to win against Trump if he were selected to represent the party, while 28 percent thought Trump would win and 4 percent had no opinion.
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Can We Trust The Polls
Can we believe the polls this time?
It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.
Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.
Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.
But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.
Key Geopolitical Trends For The 2020 Elections:
1. Power Plays There are many countries that are trying to gain the title of the most powerful country in the world whether it is through 5G, AI, sanctions or trade wars.
2. Global Economic Risk There are a lot of things going on in the market that can play a role on the next market crash. We currently have Brexit going on in Europe, conflicts with Iran and trade wards with China.
3. Saudi Stressors and Global Energy Markets There is uncertainty within the energy markets after the attack on the Saudi Arabian oil supply.
4. Eventful Year for Latin America Latin America has had an eventful year that will play a role in the election. Mexico and Brazil both have new presidents that are going to challenge the US relations in different ways. The Venezuela crisis is still going on.
5. Pending War With all these stressors the worst-case scenarios could lead to wars being fought. More domestic issues include Immigration, College Debt, Medicare, Green New Deal, Marijuana Legalization, Universal Basic Income, Criminal Justice, Cyber Security, the Electoral College, Gun control and the Military.
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Impact On 2020 Elections:
1. Match Up The match up between candidates is important, its not always the candidate with the best resume that wins.
2. Choosing the Right VP Counts Having the right VP will give the candidate access to crucial votes, or it can turn voters away from them if its a bad choice.
3. Anti-campaigns vs. Pro-campaigns People do not vote for Anti Campaigns as it only states what the candidate is against, it fails to give insight on what the candidate is for.
4. Economy The economy is doing well, so its hard to argue against it. But in the event the economy shifts it is important to have a strategy in place so that the candidate has speaking points on it.
5. Focus on Areas of Weakness Going against someones weakness is a lot better than trying to go against their strengths.
6. Likability The match up between candidates is important, its not always the candidate with the best resume that wins.
7. Debate Approach The candidate needs to have their own specific debate approach. If they start trying to mirror others style and approach will lead them to lose as they wouldnt have any authenticity.
8. Strong Social Media Team Its important to have good social media teams. Thing happen so fast today that the candidates need to post things instantly once they gain traction so they can go viral. Views do in many ways lead to votes
9. Work Ethic The more rallies a candidate takes part in, the more hands they shake, the more votes they get.
Biden Rips Trump As Charlatan
How many of you I mean this sincerely how many of you, when the president was elected, were either happy or bemused or a little embarrassed or not quite sure, but now are really fundamentally worried about our democracy or the prospect of an international conflict or nuclear war? Biden said. How many of you now, whether you voted for him or not, are beginning to wonder whether or not the very roots of the invisible moral fabric that holds everything up is eroding in a way thats going to be dangerous for democratic institutions?
Barely a mile away, the Obama Foundation was holding its inaugural summit, where Biden had been in talks to make an appearance.
Instead, he met for coffee with Mayor Rahm Emanuel, the former Obama chief of staff whos renewed his role as a behind-the-scenes strategist for what the Democratic Party should do next.
A spokesman declined to comment on what they discussed.
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Cory Booker Kirsten Gillibrand Amy Klobuchar Kamala Harris
Being the establishment candidate in the current political climate is the kiss of death. Which is why even candidates who fit that mold will do everything they can to avoid the label including co-sponsoring Mr. Sanderss Medicare for All.
Mr. Booker, a New Jersey senator, has seemingly been running for president since he was a Rhodes scholar at Oxford in the 90s. But some of the well-heeled backers he picked up along the way including Big Pharma and Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are now political poison in a Democratic primary. He may end up spending as much time distancing himself from his old supporters as cultivating new ones.
Ms. Gillibrand, a New York senator, is similarly well liked on Wall Street. Shes recast herself as a tough-talking liberal in recent years introducing legislation that would institute paid family leave but her obligations to the financial services sector will hamper her.
Kamala Harris, a freshman California senator, has become a liberal rock star with her tough questioning of Jeff Sessions and other Trump administration officials during Senate hearings. Its her record as California attorney general, her previous job, that could trip her up: She , the bank once headed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, for alleged foreclosure violations. Still, Ms. Harris seems the most promising of this group not least because she has less of a voting record her opponents can use against her.
