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Which States Did Trump Win The Popular Vote

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United States House Of Representatives Elections

Breaking Down How Donald Trump Won The U.S. Election

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 8, 2022, as part of the 2022 United States elections during incumbent president Joe Biden‘s term. The elections were held to elect representatives from all 435 U.S. congressional districts across each of the 50 states, as well as five non-voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited insular areas. The winners of this election will serve in the 118th United States Congress. Numerous other federal, state, and local elections, including the 2022 U.S. Senate elections, were also held on the same date. At the time of the election, the Democratic Party had held a majority in the House since January 3, 2019, as a result of the 2018 elections, when they won 235 seats their majority was reduced to 222 seats in 2020.

Due to gerrymandering during the 2020 U.S. redistricting cycle, Republicans made gains in Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and Georgia, while Democrats made gains in Illinois and New Mexico. Defensive gerrymanders helped both parties hold competitive seats in various states, while Republican gains in New York and Democratic gains in North Carolina and Ohio were made possible because their state supreme courts overturned gerrymanders passed by their state legislatures. By November 16, major news organizations had called control of the House for Republicans.

Beliefs And Policies Of Candidates

Hillary Clinton focused her candidacy on several themes, including raising middle class incomes, expanding women’s rights, instituting campaign finance reform, and improving the Affordable Care Act. In March 2016, she laid out a detailed economic plan basing her economic philosophy on inclusive capitalism, which proposed a “clawback” that rescinds tax cuts and other benefits for companies that move jobs overseas with provision of incentives for companies that share profits with employees, communities and the environment, rather than focusing on short-term profits to increase stock value and rewarding shareholders as well as increasing collective bargaining rights and placing an “exit tax” on companies that move their headquarters out of the U.S. in order to pay a lower tax rate overseas. Clinton promoted equal pay for equal work to address current alleged shortfalls in how much women are paid to do the same jobs men do, promoted explicitly focus on family issues and support of universal preschool, expressed support for the right to same-sex marriage, and proposed allowing undocumented immigrants to have a path to citizenship stating that it “s at its heart a family issue.”

Bias In Favor Of Republicans

As things stand now, the practical effect of the electoral college is that Republicans have an advantage over Democrats. Running an analysis of the electoral system, complete with simulations for various voting outcomes, the Economist magazine found that


for Democrats to have a better than 50% chance of winning control of the House in Novembers mid-term elections, they will need to win the popular vote by around seven percentage points. To put that another way, we think the Republicans have a 0.01% chance of winning the popular vote for the House. But we estimate their chance of securing a majority of congressmen is about a third.

The bias results from current political trends when the system was designed over 200 years ago the situation was quite different. Every state gets only two senators, no matter how populous. The populous states happen to have large urban populations that tend to be more Democratic-leaning. So in the political atmosphere that we find ourselves in today, Democrats are at a disadvantage. Another 100 years from now, the situation may well be reversed.

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The President Won The White House Four Years Ago With Narrow Wins In Florida Wisconsin And Pennsylvania Can He Do The Same In 2020

The 2016 presidential election saw Donald Trump stage a surprise victory over Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton. Trump won the presidency after winning in the 30 states and picking up 306 Electoral College votes out of a possible 538.

However due to the American voting system, he managed to win a majority of the nations electors despite actually losing the popular vote. The popular vote is a simple tally of the total number of votes cast for each candidate.

The quirks of the Electoral College system were exposed in 2016 when Donald Trump secured the presidency with an Electoral College majority, even as Hillary Clinton took a narrow lead in the popular vote

TIME

When the final vote count was returned Trump had received a total of 62,980,160 votes, while Clinton had amassed 65,845,063 . The Democratic nominee therefore received roughly 2.9 million more votes, giving her a margin of 2.1% over her opponent. However a series of narrow wins for Trump in valuable states like Florida gave him enough Electoral College votesto secure a place in White House.


Who is expected to win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?

As was proved four years ago, attempting to predict the results of an election is a fools errand, but we can take some clues from how the 2016 race panned out. Trump defied the pollsters to beat Clinton but the margin he overcame on Election Day was less than it is this time around.

David Weigel

The 2016 Trend Held True In 2020 That More Women Voted For The Democrats And More Men Voted For Trump

How Many Electoral Votes Did Trump Win By In 2016

While Trump maintained similar levels of support from both men and women in 2016 and 2020, Biden managed to make gains over Clinton’s share.

In 2020, Biden received an estimated three additional percentage points of votes from women than Clinton did in 2016 when she became the first female presidential candidate on a major political party’s ticket.

Though small, Biden also gained one percentage point of support from male voters across the US.

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Disadvantages Of The Electoral College

Critics of the system that uses the electoral vote to choose a president argue that the system is unfair. They say that the system is undemocratic because the number of electoral votes is not directly proportional to the population of the state. This gives smaller states a disproportionate influence in presidential elections. For example, Hawaii has a population of only 1.36 million but has 4 electoral votes while Oregon has a population 3 times that size but only 7 electoral votes. If the power of a single vote were calculated in terms of number of number of people per electoral vote, states like New York and California would lose. The winners would be states like Wyoming and North Dakota .

Another criticism is that the electoral vote system does not penalize a state for low voter turnout or for disenfranchising its citizens The state gets the same number of votes regardless of whether voter turnout is 40% or 60%. In a popular vote, states with higher turnout will directly increase their influence in the outcome of the presidential race.

List Of United States Presidential Elections By Popular Vote Margin

In a United States presidential election, the popular vote is the total number or the percentage of votes cast for a candidate by voters in the 50 states and Washington, D.C. the candidate who gains the most votes nationwide is said to have won the popular vote. However, the popular vote is not used to determine who is elected as the nations president or vice president. Thus it is possible for the winner of the popular vote to end up losing the election, an outcome that has occurred on five occasions, most recently in the 2016 election. This is because presidential elections are indirect elections the votes cast on Election Day are not cast directly for a candidate, but for members of the Electoral College. The Electoral Colleges electors then formally elect the president and vice president.

The Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution provides the procedure by which the president and vice president are elected electors vote separately for each office. Previously, electors cast two votes for president, and the winner and runner up became president and vice-president respectively.

The appointment of electors is a matter for each states legislature to determine in 1872 and all elections since 1880, all states have used a popular vote to do so.


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Hanukkah Traditions And Their Origins

So Congress created a bipartisan Federal Electoral Commission composed of House representatives, senators and Supreme Court justices. The Commission voted to give all 20 disputed electoral votes to Hayes, who won the election by the thinnest of margins: 185 to 184.

Why did the Commission decide to hand the election to Hayes, who had lost both the popular and electoral vote? Most historians believe there was a deal brokered between the two parties. The Democrats, whose stronghold was the South, agreed to let Hayes be president in return for the Republicans promising to pull all federal troops from former Confederate states. Thats one of the main reasons why Reconstruction was abandoned in 1877.

A portrait of President Benjamin Harrison, 1888. Courtesy Library of Congress.

Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images


The 1888 race between incumbent Democratic President Grover Cleveland and Republican challenger Benjamin Harrison was riddled with corruption. Both parties accused the other of paying citizens to vote for their candidate. So-called floaters were voters with no party loyalty who could be sold to the highest bidder.

In Indiana, a letter surfaced that allegedly showed Republicans plotting to buy up voters and to disrupt the oppositions own bribery efforts. Meanwhile, Southern Democrats did everything in their power to suppress the Black vote, most of whom aligned with the Republicans, the party of Lincoln.

Electoral Vote Vs Popular Vote

âWe did win this election,â? U.S. President Donald Trump claims, despite votes still being counted

In a presidential election, the popular vote simply means an aggregate of all voters from all states in America. The candidate who gets the most votes nationwide is said to have won the popular vote. But the winner of the popular vote may end up losing the election, like Al Gore did in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won 48.2% of the popular vote compared to Trump’s 46.1% but lost the electoral vote by a substantial margin . In 2012, Mitt Romney won 48% of the popular vote but only 38% of the electoral vote.

This discrepancy occurs because although Americans vote directly for their chosen candidate in the presidential election every 4 years, the president is elected by the institution called the Electoral College. This article explains the difference between the electoral vote and the popular vote, i.e., how the Electoral College system works.

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New 2020 Voter Data: How Biden Won How Trump Kept The Race Close And What It Tells Us About The Future

As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well.

Now, using a massive sample of validated voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has . It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did notand why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.

How Joe Biden won

Five main factors account for Bidens success.

  • The Biden campaign reunited the Democratic Party. Compared to 2016, he raised the share of moderate and conservative Democrats who voted for the Democratic nominee by 6 points, from 85 to 91%, while increasing the Democratic share of liberal Democrats from 94 to 98%. And he received the support of 85% of Democrats who had defected to 3rd party and independent candidates in 2016.
  • How Trump kept it close


    Despite non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends.

    Longer-term prospects

    Electoral College Bias And The 2020 Presidential Election

  • aDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
  • bDepartment of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
  • See allHide authors and affiliations

  • Edited by Larry M. Bartels, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, and approved September 7, 2020

    This combination of pictures created on October 22, 2020 shows US President Donald Trump and Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden during the final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenness

    OAKLAND, Calif. To win the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump or Joe Biden needs to secure 270 votes in the Electoral College.


    Each candidate has a different path to victory. As always, there are battleground states where the matchup between the incumbent and challenger is too close to call. For Trump, Pennsylvania and Florida are seen as the most important swing states. Biden is looking to win Wisconsin and Michigan, two states that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. The former vice president also appears competitive in Georgia and Arizona, which have reliably voted for Republican candidates.

    Below is an interactive Electoral College map followed by a list of election results from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

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    Cities Overwhelmingly Voted Democrat In Both Elections While Rural Voters Chose Trump The Suburbs Swung From Trump In 2016 To Biden In 2020

    In 2016, Trump received an estimated 49% of the vote in the suburbs, 4 percentage points more than his opponent. As previously reported, both campaigns in 2020 increased their focus on winning such voters. Biden emerged victorious in the suburbs, winning 50% of voters there two percentage points more than Trump and five more percentage points than Clinton in 2016.

    Trump appears to have lost four percentage points of support in small cities and rural communities, dropping from 61% of support to 57% in 2020. Conversely, Biden gained eight percentage points in these areas, ultimately winning 42% of the rural vote.


    What Is The Electoral College

    Elections 2020: Donald TrumpâLOSER

    In the United States, something called the Electoral College determines how many votes a presidential candidate gets in an election.

    Each state has a certain number of votes for presidential candidates roughly tied to the population of the state. This number is equal to the number of representatives and senators the state sends to Congress.

    For example, New York, the state where I live, has 27 representatives and therefore 29 Electoral College votes. Washington, D.C. which doesnt have any members of Congress has three Electoral College votes.

    But the rules also say each state must have at least one representative and there can only be 435 members of the House. Because of the way those available seats are divided up, certain states have fewer representatives per person than in other states.

    For example, each of the 53 representatives in the House from California represents roughly 746,415 people. In Wyoming, that number drops to 577,737 for their one representative.

    This means the national popular vote which goes to the candidate who won the most individual votes can be somewhat different than the Electoral College vote.

    Thats what happened in the 2016 election. Large portions of city-dwellers in blue states voted for Clinton, giving her the most votes nationally.

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    How Electoral Votes Are Awarded

    In all states except Nebraska and Maine, electors are awarded on a winner-take-all basis. This means all electors/delegates in a state are awarded to the winner of the popular vote in that state. So in a closely contested election like 2000 , when George Bush won Florida with a roughly 50-50% split of the popular vote in that state, he won all 27 electoral votes for Florida.

    Maine and Nebraska use a slightly different method for allocating electoral votes. In the “Congressional District Method”, one elector within each congressional district is selected by popular vote in that district. The remaining two electors are selected by the statewide popular vote. This method has been used in Nebraska since 1996 and in Maine since 1972.

    Election Results In Battleground States

    The table below details the number of Congressional districts won by each candidate in the battleground states.

    2020 presidential results by Congressional district, battleground states
    State

    The following is a list of post-election lawsuits involving the presidential election. Where available, case names and numbers, states of origin, courts of origin, and links to complaints and docket reports are provided.

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    What Happens If No Candidate Gets 270 Electoral Votes

    If no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes, the decision moves to the House of Representatives, which would hold what’s called a contingent election in which each state gets a single vote. This means California and Wyoming get equal power, despite CA having 50 times the population of WY. Each state’s delegation votes in favor of the party that has more House seats in that state. If this were to happen in 2020, the Republican party would get a majority and elect Trump.

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