Icymi: What Else Is Happening In The World
A federal judge blocked much of Floridas new restrictive voting law Thursday, but the ruling will likely be appealed, NBCs Jane C. Timm reports.
The Senate is one step closer to an agreement on funding for a Covid relief package.
Meta, formerly known as Facebook, hired a Republican firm to spread negative stories smearing rival platform TikTok, The Washington Post reports.
A dozen House Republicans joined Democrats to pass a bill capping the out-of-pocket cost of insulin at $35 per month. Now, the bill heads to the Senate.
The war in Ukraine continues as Russia abandons the highly contaminated Chernobyl nuclear power plant and Ukranians brace for renewed attacks, according to AP
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., plans to vote against confirming Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, despite his vote just last year to elevate her to a D.C. appeals court.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
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Ballotpedia’s Polling Index: Comparison Of Opinion Polling During The Trump And Biden Administrations
| Cabinet White House staff Transition team |
| Policy positions |
Weeks covered: 96
This page compares overall trends in opinion polling averages during the presidency of Joe Biden to those during the presidency of Donald Trump . Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are an average of polls that measure public sentiment on presidential job approval, congressional job approval, and satisfaction with the overall direction of the country.
Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are updated every weekday based on opinion polls released by qualifying sources. The most recent poll released by each qualifying source is included in the overall polling average. Polls are removed from the average when the same source releases a more recent poll or 30 days after the poll was last in the field, whichever occurred first. This page looks at these polling numbers on a week-over-week basis, starting with the first full workweek of the new president’s term. This means that the numbers on this page are all weekly averages of daily average poll results.
To view the current polling index, click here. For a detailed look at opinion polling during the Trump administration, including a full list of qualifying polls taken, click here.
HIGHLIGHTS
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Polls Show How Biden And Trump Would Fare In A Rematch
President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are neck and neck among likely voters asked who they would back in the 2024 election, according to polling carried out for Newsweek.
The survey, from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, revealed that 41 percent would vote for Biden, with 41 percent also saying they would back Trump in a hypothetical 2024 showdown.
A further 11 percent said they were not sure who they would vote for if the election, which is still two years away, was between Biden and Trump.
The poll of 1500 people found that 85 percent of Trump supporters and 82 percent of Biden voters said they would support their candidates again in 2024 if they were on the ballots.
The results of the recent midterm elections, which was seen as a referendum on Biden and the influence of Trump and his MAGA endorsements, does not appear to have made an immediate impact on voters.
While Biden’s low approval ratings amid high inflation weighed on Democrats, the GOP ultimately failed to win control of the Senate and only just achieved a 218 majority in the House, with waves of Trump’s chosen candidates losing their elections across the country.
Compared to a November poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Trump only fell one point from 42 percent, while Biden dropped two points.
The December poll found that inflation and economic growth are the top two main factors that will determine how people vote in 2024.
Donald Trump Has Become More Popular Since The January 6 Capitol Attack
Former President Donald Trump still manages to dominate the political headlines, nearly a year and half after leaving office. On Thursday, the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol used its first prime-time hearing to make the case that Trump used his power to try and overturn the 2020 election result.
The committee faces political headwinds, however. A majority of Americans now believe that Trump was either not or only partially responsible for the rioters who overtook the Capitol, according to a recent NBC News poll. Thats up from 47% in January 2021.
Trumps improving political position is where we begin today.
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Polling Average Put Bidens Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Bidens approval rating was 45.2%.
The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Bidens approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was unusually low.
In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%, he said. Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Bidens rating is hovering in the mid-40s.
The Claim: President Joe Bidens Approval Rating Is 39% And Lower Than Donald Trumps Ever Was
After the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings took a hit. But some online posts exaggerate the depth of the drop.
Text in reads, “Joe Biden’s approval falls to 39 percent, worse than Trump’s approval ever.” The post did not indicate which poll it’s referring to.
A similar post accumulated 46,000 likes in six days before it was deleted. Other claims in this vein have racked up hundreds of interactions on Facebook and Instagram, according to CrowdTangle, a social media insights tool.
The claim is misleading. While one poll did put Bidens approval rating at 39%, the polling average a more accurate measure of a president’s popularity put it higher. Experts say Biden’s approval rating, the lowest since he took office, is still higher than Trumps term low.
USA TODAY reached out to several social media users who shared the claim for comment.
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Bidens Job Rating Is Similar To Trumps But Lower Than That Of Other Recent Presidents
Nearly two years into his presidency, Joe Bidens job rating stands at 38% identical to Donald Trumps approval rating at a similar point in his presidency, but lower than those of some other recent presidents in the run-up to their first midterm election.
The trajectory of presidential job approval differs for each White House occupant. Biden began his presidency with majority approval: In March 2021, 54% of Americans approved of Bidens job performance, and his rating rose to 59% a month later. But his popularity declined sharply last summer and has been in the low 40s or high 30s since then.
By contrast, Trumps job rating remained remarkably stable during his first two years in office and well after that. In fact, until his job approval fell dramatically following the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, roughly four-in-ten Americans consistently approved of Trumps job performance. In October 2018, close to two years after Trump was elected, 38% approved of how he was handling his job as president.
Bidens job rating is fairly comparable to Ronald Reagans and Bill Clintons at this stage of their presidencies, but lower than Barack Obamas . Those three presidents like Biden lost ground over their first two years in office.
Partisan divides in views of the president have grown in recent years
Donald Trumps Approval Rating Plunges To Lowest Point In Over A Year: Poll
Donald Trumps positive approval rating is at its lowest point in more than a year, whereas President Joe Biden is seeing his highest score in months, according to a poll.
A survey released by NBC News found that Trump currently has a 54 percent negative approval rating, with a 34 percent positive approval.
Trump had the same 54 percent negative approval rating in an August NBC News poll, but with a slightly higher positive approval of 36 percent.
In comparison, Trump also had a 36 percent positive approval rating in May and March 2022, 37 percent in January 2022, and 38 percent in August and October 2021.
The former presidents overall favorability rating of 54 percent positive and 34 percent negative has not been as low since an April 2021 NBC poll, when he recorded 55 percent negative and 32 percent positive numbers.
The poll also found that while Bidens overall approval rating is still underwater, he is currently seeing the highest positive score in nearly a year.
Bidens latest NBC favorability rating has him at 45 percent positiveup 3 points from last month and the highest it has been since October 2021and 52 percent negative.
Elsewhere, the poll revealed that voters are currently split when asked who they back in the midterms, with the GOP and Democrat Party at 46 percent when voters asked who they believe should control Congress.
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Biden Approval Rebounds Slightly Amid Concerns About Economy: Poll
President Bidens approval rating rebounded slightly in a new CNN poll that found lingering concerns among respondents about the state of the economy.
The poll found that 44 percent of respondents approved of Bidens performance as president in September and October, up from the 38 percent who approved in CNNs last poll over the summer.
Americans in the poll released Wednesday continue to rate Bidens handling of the economy and inflation fairly poorly, however, with 36 percent approving of his performance on the economy and 32 percent approving on inflation. Those results are up 6 points and 7 points, respectively, from June and July, CNN noted.
After reaching a record high in June, inflation eased slightly to 8.3 percent in August, assisted by declining gas prices. Biden has also seen a series of successes, with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the announcement of student loan forgiveness.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from Sept. 3-Oct. 5 with 1,982 respondents and had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
A Politico-Morning Consult poll also released on Wednesday found a slight uptick in support for Biden overall last week, rising from 42 percent to 43 percent. His approval rating among Democrats rose from 79 percent to 83 percent, while his ratings among Republicans held steady at 8 percent, pollsters found.
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What Sinema’s Party Change Means For Democrats
Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who represents Phoenix and had already been considering challenging Sinema in 2024, said the senator is in it for herself.
We need Senators who will put Arizonans ahead of big drug companies and Wall Street bankers. Whether in the Marine Corps or in Congress, I have never backed down from fighting for Arizonans. And at a time when our nation needs leadership most, Arizona deserves a voice that wont back down in the face of struggle, Gallego said in a statement after Sinemas announcement. Unfortunately, Senator Sinema is once again putting her own interests ahead of getting things done for Arizonans.
Matt Whitlock, a former Senate Republican campaign operative, responded on Twitter: Ruben is furious because he knows in a 3-way primary hed come in third by a long way.
Rep. Greg Stanton, D-Ariz., a former Phoenix mayor who just won his third term in the House, also is taking a look at running for the Senate seat, said a source familiar with his thinking.
Sinemas move drew cheers from other Republicans, including the Donald Trump-aligned election denier Lake.
“Great news!” she tweeted.
Hannah Hurley, a Sinema spokesperson, didn’t comment Friday on the senator’s 2024 plans or respond to suggestions that an independent candidacy could make her a spoiler and help Republicans. “She’s made crystal clear she isn’t focused on campaign politics,” Hurley said.
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For Your Brief Encounters: Its Flag Day On Tuesday
Flag Day is not a major holiday, but Americans do love their flag. In fact, actions toward the American flag are the top way for US citizens to show their patriotism.
According to a 2018 SSRS poll, 23% said flying, saluting, displaying or respecting the flag in general was the way they showed their American patriotism. That beat out respecting or supporting the troops for the top spot.
The topic most frequently spoken about in this column came in at 11% good for fourth place.
Kanye West Slams Lawmakers Including His Friend Trump: For Politicians All Black People Are Worth Is An Approval Rating
- Kanye West called out lawmakers for using Black voters during an interview with Tucker Carlson.
- West recalled Trumps delight at getting a boost in popularity after the rappers White House visit.
- West said politicians, including Trump, saw Black people only as tools to raise approval ratings.
Rapper Kanye West has called out politicians, including his friend Donald Trump, for using Black people as a tool to improve their approval ratings.
During an interview with Fox News host Tucker Carlson on Thursday, West recalled a phone call with then-President Trump after the rappers infamous visit to the White House in October 2018.
West, who had worn a MAGA hat during the visit and said he supported Trump because they both have dragon energy, told Carlson that he later called Trump to discuss getting fellow rapper ASAP Rocky out of jail. He was likely referring to a call he had with Trump in July 2019, during which Trump offered to assist in helping ASAP Rocky, who was being held in Sweden on assault charges at the time, get out of jail, per Rolling Stone.
Acyn
And one of the things he said to me is, Kanye, youre my friend. When you came to the White House, my Black approval rating went up 40%,’ West said of the phone call.
And for politicians, all Black people are worth is an approval rating, he added. The Democrats feel that they dont owe us anything, and Republicans feel like they dont owe us anything.
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Who Is Following The Jan 6 Hearings
The hearings are unlikely to be a factor in shaping Republican views because most say they are paying little to no attention to the investigation. According to this latest poll, 58 percent of Americans said they were paying at least some attention to the hearings, while another 41 percent said they were paying little to no attention, including 56 percent of Republicans. Democrats are the most reliable audience for the Jan. 6 hearings, with 80 percent following along.
Its almost an article of faith for a Republican to say, Im not paying attention to this stuff, Ayres said.
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No matter how earth-shattering these hearings are, there is also little to suggest they will inform the way people vote during the November midterms. In fact, only 9 percent of U.S. adults said it will be top of mind for them this fall, including 17 percent of Democrats and 2 percent of Republicans. A far larger share of Americans 37 percent said they care most about inflation, including 57 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independents.
For Democrats, abortion ranked as the top concern. Following the Supreme Courts overturning of Roe v. Wade and the loss of federal protections for the medical procedure in June, 29 percent of Democrats and 18 percent of Americans overall picked abortion as what matters most to them.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
