Thursday, March 28, 2024

Republican Candidates For 2020 Election

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National Polls Show Lower White And Older Support For Trump

Early Numbers Suggest Trump Is A Burden On The Ballot

Exit polls released by the national election consortium Edison Research allow for national- and state-level comparisons with those from 2016. Figure 1 shows the shifts in Democratic minus Republican voter margins for racial groups.

While whites continued to favor the Republican candidate in 2020as they have in every presidential election since 1968it is notable that this margin was reduced from 20% to 17% nationally. At the same time, the Democratic margins for each of the major nonwhite groups was somewhat reduced. The Black Democratic marginwhile still high, at 75%was the lowest in a presidential election since 2004. The Latino or Hispanic and Asian American Democratic margins of 33% and 27% were the lowest since the 2004 and 2008 elections, respectively. These shifts do not apply to all states, and are not applicable to most battleground states where voters of color were crucial to Bidens win

It is clear that white voting blocs start at different levels of Democratic or Republican support. In fact, there was a modest decline in Republican support in a key Trump base: white men without college educations. This group showed a reduced Republican advantage from 48% to a still sizeable 42% between 2016 and 2020.

System Upgrade In Progress

Campaign Finance, Lobbyist Reporting, and Online Voter Tools are expected to be offline from to complete a system upgrade.

Per Idaho Code 67-6607, campaign finance is reported monthly during a campaigns election year. The deadline for the March report falls on Saturday, April 10th. Due to the interruption caused by this upgrade, political treasurers will be allowed to file the March report until 11:59 p.m. MDT on Monday, April 12th.

While we do our best to ensure compliance with all deadlines in statute, the timing of this release is critical to ensure minimal impact to the May election cycle. We are sorry for any inconvenience this may cause.

Donald Trump 202: Why It Will Be Harder For Him To Run This Time

Donald Trump has announced his third straight presidential bid, in an extremely rare attempt by a former US leader to recapture the White House after losing an election.


The speech, which clocked in at more than an hour, was largely a mix of boasts about his presidential record and attacks on the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency.

On display were some of Mr Trump’s continued strengths. He has an unmatched sense of which issues are important to grass-roots conservatives, such as immigration and crime. His unpredictable and inflammatory style can drive news coverage and deny the spotlight to his competitors. He has a base of loyal supporters and can motivate typically unengaged Americans to vote. And after four years in office, many of those supporters hold positions of authority within the Republican Party.

But his speech also highlighted some of Mr Trump’s key weaknesses.

He glossed over the hardships and missteps during the Covid pandemic and totally ignored his months of election denial that culminated in the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol by a mob of his supporters.

He attempted to defend the Republican Party’s tepid performance in last week’s midterm election and his support for losing candidates, which has led to growing criticism from conservative ranks.


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Gubernatorial Candidates: 20 Of 36 Gop Candidates

Doug Mastriano : In addition to being near the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 and spending thousands of dollars from his campaign account to arrange buses from Pennsylvania to Washington, D.C., that day, Doug Mastriano, a state senator, held a hearing weeks after the 2020 election and called Trump campaign lawyer Rudy Giuliani to testify “on election issues.” Mastriano and other Pennsylvania Republicans challenged the state’s new mail ballot law all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court which upheld the legality of the rules. On Nov. 27, 2020, he introduced a bill asking Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar “to withdraw and vacate the certification of the presidential election.”

In Pennsylvania, the governor appoints the secretary of state and in April, Mastriano said he already has someone in mind, though he hasn’t released a name. He’s also contemplating forcing all voters to re-register in Pennsylvania. He said on “The John Fredericks Show” that he has the power to decertify or certify “any machines or anything else involved with elections with the stroke of a pen, I can decertify every single machine in the state.”

Texas Gov Greg Abbott

Election 2020: GOP candidates for District 115 debate SIU, economic ...

Abbott looks into the crowd at Kyle Field before the start of an NCAA college football game between Texas A& M and Mississippi in College Station, Texas.

Abbott isnt generally seen as in the top tier of presidential contenders, though some insiders in Texas believe he has a more bullish view of his chances.


Abbott will probably strengthen his case on Tuesday. He is expected to comfortably defeat former Rep. Beto ORourke . Abbott is about nine points ahead in the RCP average. Assuming he vanquishes ORourke, it will likely end the Democrats once-bright hopes of higher office.

Still, Abbotts presumed victory will come in a much more safely Republican state than DeSantiss Florida.

While the Texas governor is an able politician, its hard to see how he gets past some of the figures higher on this list.

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How Far Right Are The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Mccarthy

By Danielle Ivory, Charlie Smart and Karen YourishUpdated Jan. 4, 2023, 5 p.m. ET


The Republicans who voted against the bid by Representative Kevin McCarthy of California for House speaker include some of the chambers most hard-right lawmakers. Most denied the 2020 election, are members of the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus, or both. Heres a closer look at the 20 lawmakers.

Re-elected representatives

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley

Haley listens to Lisa Scheller, a Republican candidate for Pennsylvanias 7th Congressional District, speak with members of the media during a news conference in Allentown, Pa.

Haley was widely seen as a gifted politician during her time as governor of South Carolina. As the daughter of Indian immigrants, she was also viewed as an emblem of a new, more inclusive GOP.

Haley is a compelling figure, but her political positioning in relation to Trump has caused her problems.


Though she served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations during his tenure, she also left abruptly and is viewed with suspicion by some in the former presidents inner circle.

Haley caused a stir in the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6 insurrection when she was critical of Trump in a closed-door meeting with Republican National Committee members, saying his conduct between the election and the riot would be harshly judged by history.

Later, she again became far more supportive. She has indicated she will not be a candidate in 2024 if Trump enters the race.

Every time she criticizes me, she uncriticizes me about 15 minutes later, Trump mused to Vanity Fair in September 2021.

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Lower White Support For Trump In Pennsylvania Michigan And Wisconsin

The three crucial northern battlegrounds of both 2016 and 2020 are the relatively white states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Each one flipped for Biden this election.

Exit polls in all three states indicate that more Democratic-favorable margins among different white blocs between 2016 and 2020 contributed to Bidens wins. See Figure 4 and .

Beginning with Pennsylvania, it is clear that white college graduatesboth male and femalevoted more Democratic in 2020 than in 2016. Particularly noteworthy is the change for white male college graduates , while white female college graduates increased their Democratic support from 14% to 19%.

Pennsylvanias seniors, too, registered a smaller Republican margin, while white noncollege men and women remained fairly strongly Republican. But the shift among white college-educated Pennsylvanians toward Democrats, strong nonwhite support, and greater support among young people were enough to seal Bidens win.

Over Half Of Republicans Running For Federal Statewide Office Have Raised Unfounded Doubts About 2020 Election

Trey Gowdy: If GOP takes House and Senate this is what we’ll get

Over half of all Republican midterm candidates running for federal and statewide office have raised unfounded doubts about the validity or integrity of the 2020 election results, and according to CBS News’ analysis, all of the states but two Rhode Island and North Dakota have a candidate on the the ballot who is an “election denier,” that is, who denies the results of the 2020 election were valid.


Among the 597 GOP candidates running for state or federal office this November, 308 have raised unfounded doubts about the results of the 2020 election.

Here’s the candidate breakdown:

  • 20 out of 37 Republicans running for governor
  • 9 out of 31 Republicans running for lieutenant governor
  • 9 out of 30 Republicans running for attorney general
  • 12 out of 27 Republicans running for secretary of state
  • 20 out of 36 Republicans running for the U.S. Senate
  • 238 out of 436 Republicans running for U.S. House

Other candidates backtracked after their primary races, hoping to appear less extreme to a wider electorate. CBS News still considers these candidates to have questioned the integrity of the election, even if they have since changed course.

The same is true in Michigan, where Tudor Dixon and Kristina Karamo, running for governor and secretary of state, have also said they wouldn’t have certified Mr. Biden’s 2020 victory.

Below are profiles of some of the candidates who meet one or more of the following criteria:


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Races In Arizona And Nevada Are Too Early To Call

Arizona is one of three states where election deniers are the GOP nominees for governor, secretary of state and attorney general. All three races remain too early to call, according to NBC News.

Kari Lake, the nominee for governor, has been in a tight race against Democrat Katie Hobbs, and ran against Democrat Adrian Fontes for secretary of state. For attorney general, Abraham Hamadeh is up against Democrat Kris Mayes. All three have questioned Bidens presidential victory or falsely said the election was stolen from Trump.

Finchem has ties to QAnon and the Oath Keepers, and he attended Trumps Stop the Steal rally before the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

In Nevada, Jim Marchant a Trump-endorsed election denier ran against Democrat Cisco Aguilar for secretary of state. That race is also too early to call, according to NBC News.


Marchant has promised to get rid of all electronic voting machines, voting by mail and early voting. Instead, he has vowed to institute a traceable paper-ballot-only system that would rely only on hand counts. Marchant has also said he wouldnt have certified the 2020 results in the state, which Biden won.

In an interview this year, Marchant said that if he is secretary of state in 2024, he wont rule out advocating for an alternate slate of Trump electors if Trump is on the ballot and loses because of what he determines to be voter irregularities.

Most Gop Candidates Who Cast Doubt On The 2020 Election Won But Many Lost Tough Races

The Jan. 6 Committees final public meeting put former President Donald Trumps false claims that the 2020 election was stolen back into the spotlight. Scores of GOP candidates echoed those claims as they ran for office in 2022, and a majority of them prevailed, although many lost competitive races.

An NBC News analysis of past candidate statements found 268 Republican candidates running for Governor, Congress or Secretary of State who either denied or actively cast doubt on President Joe Bidens 2020 victory. A majority of those candidates 172 won their races, while 96 lost.

But the vast majority of those who won were running in races where Republicans were heavily favored to win, per race ratings from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and a political unit analysis of Secretary of State races, which the Cook Political Report does not rate. Election denying or doubting candidates were more likely to lose competitive races:

  • Solid Republican/GOP-favored races: 155 won 3 lost
  • Lean/Likely Republican or Democrat races: 14 won 13 lost
  • Toss-up races: 3 won 19 lost

These candidates success also varied by office, with such candidates finding more success in House races. Here is their record by office:

  • Governor: 5 won 12 lost
  • Senate: 8 won 9 lost
  • Secretary of State: 3 won 7 lost
  • House: 156 won 68 lost

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Kentucky Governor Candidate Daniel Cameron Endorses Trump But Splits On Election Denial

FRANKFORT, Ky. Attorney General Daniel Cameron, the only Republican in a crowded 2023 primary for governor who has the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, returned the favor Tuesday when he told reporters he supports the ex-president’s 2024 campaign to return to the White House.

His endorsement came a couple of weeks after the U.S. House of Representatives committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol recommended the Justice Department bring criminal charges against Trump for his actions related to that insurrection.

“Yes, I support Donald Trump in the primary,” Cameron said, though he noted GOP voters across the country will determine who their party’s eventual nominee for president that year will be and made it clear he’ll support whoever that nominee is.

Concerning the House committee’s recommendation on criminal charges for Trump, he said: “Well, Ill let others in the Department of Justice make a determination about that.”

Cameron, who got Trump’s early endorsement last summer for his gubernatorial campaign, officially filed to run for governor Tuesday morning at the Kentucky Capitol, though he already announced his candidacy in May 2022.

Elected in 2019 as Kentucky’s first Black attorney general, he also is the first Black person from one of America’s two major political parties to run for governor in the commonwealth.

Florida Governor Ron Desantis

As state Republicans struggle to field 2020 candidates, Reichert eyes ...

Republican Ron DeSantis, Florida’s 44-year-old governor, could be Trump’s leading rival for the nomination.

With a strong political base and war chest behind him, DeSantis cruised to a landslide victory last week in his bid for a second four-year term as governor.

His resistance to COVID-19 restrictions, as well as clashes with liberals over LGBTQ rights, immigration and race-based discussions, have won praise from conservatives nationwide.

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Us Representative Liz Cheney

Republican U.S. Representative Liz Cheney, 56, has vowed to do everything she can to keep Trump from returning to the White House and said she would decide soon on whether to run for president herself.

Cheney lost the Republican Party’s nomination for Wyoming’s single seat in Congress in August to a Trump-backed challenger after Cheney said she would not “go along with President Trump’s lie about the 2020 election.”

FORMER U.N. AMBASSADOR NIKKI HALEYA former governor of South Carolina and the daughter of Indian immigrants, Haley was the highest-profile woman in Trump’s Cabinet, serving as his ambassador to the United Nations.

Haley, 50, considered a rising Republican star, has alternately held Trump close and at bay.

She publicly criticized him during his 2016 presidential campaign and again after the Jan. 6 riot, saying his actions after the 2020 election will be “judged harshly by history.”

Her rhetoric later softened when she called him a friend who still had a role to play in the party. In June, Haley teased a 2024 run “if there is a place for me,” and said in October she would consider the idea at the start of next year.

Ten Republicans Most Likely To Be Their Partys Next Presidential Candidate

The moment Tuesdays midterm elections conclude, attention will shift to the 2024 presidential race.

On the Democratic side, President Biden has said he intends to run for reelection though a very bad night for Democrats on Tuesday would put that in serious doubt.

The greater intrigue will be on the Republican side.

Axios reported on Friday that former President Trump is considering launching a 2024 bid on Nov. 14. Regardless of whether Trump runs, there are plenty of others in the GOP with White House dreams.

Here are the current top ten contenders a list that could easily be shaken up by unexpected results on Tuesday.

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Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates

The Democratic presidential primary field was expected to be large in 2020.The New York Times reported in September 2017 that, “In interviews, more than three dozen leading Democratic donors, fund-raisers and operatives agreed that it was the earliest start they had ever seen to the jockeying that typically precedes the official kickoff to the campaign for the partys presidential nomination. It is a reflection of the deep antipathy toward President Trump among Democrats, and the widespread belief that the right candidate could defeat him, but also of the likelihood that the contest for the nomination could be the longest, most crowded and most expensive in history.”

The following 18 politicians and public figures were discussed as potential candidates for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

Politicians

  • Brian Schatz, U.S. senator from Hawaii
  • Sally Yates, former acting attorney general

Business executives and public figures

  • Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase
  • Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft and co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
  • Bob Iger, CEO of Disney
  • Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, actor and professional wrestler
  • Michelle Obama, former first lady of the United States
  • Oprah Winfrey, mass media owner and philanthropist
  • Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook founder

The Shadow Of 6 January

Pollster: This what Republicans underestimated

Mr Trump won’t just have to run on his policy record as president, either. He will have to defend the way he handled the end of his presidency and his role in the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

The images of that day, with supporters waving Trump banners amid the teargas as they ransacked the Capitol and temporarily halted the peaceful transition of power, will not be easily forgotten.

The midterm elections demonstrated that what happened that day – and Mr Trump’s words and actions in the weeks leading up to it – may still be influencing voter behaviour.

Many Republican candidates who offered full-throated support for Mr Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election lost. Lots of them underperformed other Republican candidates in their states who were not outspoken in their election denial.

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