New Survey Reveals The Kinds Of Messages Trump And His Dissenters Can Lean On To Lure Voters Not Backing Him Or Desantis
Former President Donald Trump is poised to launch his third presidential bid with the bulk of the Republican Partys electorate behind him, boosted by his handling of the economy and illegal immigration and his pugilistic posture toward the Democrats.
However, the most recent Morning Consult surveys show signs of erosion in that support, and with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis waiting in the wings with his own potential campaign, a new experiment testing candidate traits suggests the former presidents age, obsession with social media and behavior following his 2020 loss are weighing on potential primary voters who arent currently planning to back him or DeSantis.
Is Trump Still A Viable Candidate Yes And No
Even after a disappointing midterm election, the former president retains his grip on the GOP.
Even before Donald Trump announced that he was seeking the presidency again, last weeks election results showed Republicans how difficult it will be to escape the former presidents gravitational pull.
Widespread voter resistance to a Republican Party refashioned in Trumps image offset disenchantment with the economy and President Joe Bidens performance and allowed Democrats to post one of the best first-midterm showings for the sitting presidents party in more than a century. In almost all the key battleground states, the same powerful coalition of voters who opposed Trump in the 2018 and 2020 elections delivered stunning rebukes to GOP candidates running with the former presidents endorsement or in his polarizing style, or both.
Yet Trumps greatest obstacle to a comeback may be the widespread belief among party leaders, donors, and key figures within conservative media that continued hostility toward him is the principal reason Democrats last week succeeded at holding the Senate and gaining control of more governorships and state legislaturesand minimized their losses in the House of Representatives, even though Republicans are poised to capture a slim majority in the chamber.
Inflation And The Economy Proved Key Factors
As always, foreign policy barely featured in the elections but the result promises a period of continuity. Instead of facing dangerous sniping on Ukraine from an emboldened Republican House leadership, the Biden administration looks set to hold to its Ukraine policy.
Bidens increasingly hard-line policy on China will continue to be qualified by a clear-headed determination however hard to cooperate on climate. Trade policy will remain stuck, as will US policy in the developing world.
Exit polls show Democrats were motivated to vote by the reversal of Roe vs Wade and the restrictions on abortion rights that followed, while Republicans voted against inflation.
But Democrats at the national level continually failed to effectively communicate the positive impacts of Bidens legislative agenda for ordinary Americans, or to deliver a clear economic message.
The national leadership veered from abortion rights to the Inflation Reduction Act, to the future of democracy in the US all of which proved too complicated to cut through.
The state level shows a more complex picture because inflation and the economy which could have swept Republicans to victory were blunted by dogged local campaigning from Democrats who knew their voters and spoke to the cost-of-living concerns which were top of their minds.
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Most Americans Dont Want Trump Or Biden To Run In : Poll
Most Americans dont want either President Biden or his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, to run for the White House again in 2024, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shared exclusively with The Hill.
Two-thirds of voters surveyed 67 percent said that Biden shouldnt seek another term in the Oval Office, with nearly half citing their belief that hes a bad president as the reason why. Another 30 percent said its simply because Biden, who would be 84 by the time he takes the Oath of Office again, is too old for the job.
Trump, meanwhile, doesnt fare much better when it comes to a 2024 run. Fifty-seven percent said that the former president shouldnt mount another bid for the White House, despite his repeated hints that he plans to do so.
When it comes to the reason why most voters arent keen on another Trump White House run, respondents were divided. Thirty-six percent said that its because he is erratic, while another 33 percent said they believe he will divide the country. Nearly as many 31 percent pointed to his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.
If the two men end up in a 2024 rematch, however, 60 percent of voters said they would be open to supporting a moderate independent candidate in the election.
When Will He Announce A Run
So far, Mr Trump hasn’t officially announced his intention to run for president in 2024.
But at a rally in Iowa on 3 November he dropped the strongest hint yet that he plans to do so. He told a crowd of thousands that “in order to make our country very successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again”.
“Get ready – that’s all I’m telling you,” he added, speaking over the applause of the crowd. “Very soon.”
Citing unnamed sources in the Trump camp, several US outlets including Axios and the New York Times later reported that the announcement could come as soon as 14 November.
That is the same day the congressional committee investigating Mr Trump’s alleged involvement in last year’s Capitol riot has ordered him to appear for a deposition.
While he’s expected to take credit if the Republicans perform well in the elections, some experts have speculated that he may run regardless of how his candidates do. Close or contested elections in particular could end up helping shore up support from his base amid continued claims that he was robbed of a win in 2020.
“If his candidates lose, he’ll claim the elections were stolen,” Mr Hudak said. “That could bolster him.”
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The Sorts Of Things Campaigns Do
Not everyone thinks Trump will run. Michael Cohen, his former lawyer who went to prison after admitting offences including lying to Congress, fraud and campaign finance violations related to paying off women who claimed affairs with Trump, thinks Trump wont risk a second defeat.
Speaking to the Daily Beast, Cohen said: One of the things he knows is that his popularity, even among Republicans, has diminished people are sick and tired of the chaos he creates every single day He cannot afford, emotionally, to be a two-time loser.
Polls show Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination but have also shown most Americans do not want him to do so. One survey, by NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ, found that 57% said Trump should not run again though among Republicans, the total fell to 26%.
Cohen also said Trump, whose company is under unprecedented legal scrutiny, may have financial reason not to run.
If you read the fine print, he has sole discretion over 90% of all of the money that his supporters are currently giving him, that makes it into a 90% slush fund. So I bet if you look to see how he paid to fix his airplane, which was sitting on the tarmac for a long time, I guarantee its coming from that slush fund.
According to the news site Puck, aides are doing the sorts of things that campaigns do in their early stages, like having those hard conversations about what worked in 2016 and did not in 2020, about hierarchy and titles, and engaging vendors.
Donald Trump 202: Why It Will Be Harder For Him To Run This Time
Donald Trump has announced his third straight presidential bid, in an extremely rare attempt by a former US leader to recapture the White House after losing an election.
The speech, which clocked in at more than an hour, was largely a mix of boasts about his presidential record and attacks on the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency.
On display were some of Mr Trump’s continued strengths. He has an unmatched sense of which issues are important to grass-roots conservatives, such as immigration and crime. His unpredictable and inflammatory style can drive news coverage and deny the spotlight to his competitors. He has a base of loyal supporters and can motivate typically unengaged Americans to vote. And after four years in office, many of those supporters hold positions of authority within the Republican Party.
But his speech also highlighted some of Mr Trump’s key weaknesses.
He glossed over the hardships and missteps during the Covid pandemic and totally ignored his months of election denial that culminated in the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol by a mob of his supporters.
He attempted to defend the Republican Party’s tepid performance in last week’s midterm election and his support for losing candidates, which has led to growing criticism from conservative ranks.
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Former Hunter Biden Business Partner Snagged Jobs In Trump Biden Administrations
The outrage over Donald Trumps not a hero comments about Sen. John McCain is not hurting him with voters, according to two new polls.
One survey puts Trump in second place in Iowa, while a second shows The Donald holding on to a large lead nationally even after the McCain barbs.
The polls were conducted on the same weekend that Trump slammed the Arizona senator as not a hero despite the fact that the he was tortured during the more than five years he was a prisoner of war in Vietnam.
Trump had 13 percent support among Republican voters in Iowa early last weekend, before his McCain quote, a Monmouth University poll showed.
And that support held steady later in the weekend, after the remarks were reported, the pollsters said.
The poll found that Trump was second in Iowa only to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had 22 percent.
The New York real-estate developer holds a 47 percent favorable rating in Iowa, which is better than the 40 percent rating he received from national Republicans last week, the poll showed.
Meanwhile, a Washington Post-ABC News poll that was conducted beginning on Thursday shows Trump held the lead for the GOP nomination nationally with 24 percent almost twice the support of his closest rival, Walker.
The Post-ABC survey showed a drop in support for Trump on the night his McCain comments were made but it was not enough to stop him from taking first place.
Walker had 13 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush had 12 percent.
New National Marquette Poll Shows Desantis And Biden Tied Trump Trailing Biden By 10 Points
Incumbent Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis arrives to speak to supporters at an election night party after winning his race for reelection in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022.
MADISON, Wis. A new national poll from Marquette Law School shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a tie in a potential 2024 matchup against President Joe Biden.
The poll, conducted a week after the midterm elections, shows both politicians tied with 42% support, while 11% would vote for someone else in the head-to-head matchup. The sample had a 4-point margin of error.
This is the fourth national poll that Marquette has conducted since January this year, and it shows a steady improvement for DeSantis over the incumbent Democratic president.
The Florida governor fares better than former President Donald Trump in that matchup. Over the past year, Trump has consistently trailed Biden losing 44%-34% in the latest poll. Between those two 2020 candidates, 19% of registered voters would support someone else.
This comes after Trump announced in mid-November that he would seek another term in office in 2024, which landed right at the start of the polling window.
This shows that Biden continues to hold a bit of an electoral advantage over Trump even though DeSantis as an alternative now polls evenly with Biden, Marquette poll director Charles Franklin said. Thats relevant for the question of electability, which primary electorates will have to consider.
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In The Real Polls Were Doing Very Well
July 12, 2020 at 7:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
President Trumps management of this summers crises has triggered what Democrats detect as a tectonic shift in the political landscape, with party leaders suddenly bullish about not only taking back the White House but also wresting control of the Senate, as well as expanding their House majority, the Washington Post reports.
Trumps incumbent advantages have steadily eroded since the spring, with the president now trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in virtually every public poll nationally and in battleground states, as well as lagging behind the former vice president in fundraising for May and June.
Trump and his advisers insist that their campaigns internal data show the race as more competitive In the real polls, we are doing very well, the president claimed Friday and that he can gain momentum in the weeks ahead with a disciplined message and a brutal, sustained assault on Bidens character, ideology and mental acuity.
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If Not Biden Then Who
Democrats are in a similar position to Republicans when it comes to their current alternatives to Biden as leader of the party none of the current leaders were seen as palatable by a majority of voters, although Democrats chose new House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Wednesday, after the poll was in the field.
Vice President Kamala Harris was very popular among Democrats 63% said she should maintain her role as a party leader but much less so among Republicans and independent voters, with 47% of independent voters saying Democrats should move on from Harris as a party leader compared to 26% who said she should maintain her role.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer appears to still have the confidence of a plurality of Democrats, with 45% saying he should stay a leader in the party compared to 27% who said the party should move on.
As the focus turns to the 2024 presidential election, Republican and Democratic voters will have to decide whether to stick with their own favorites or if they want to pivot to candidates who might have a better chance with independent voters. Whether either party can find a consensus candidate remains to be seen.
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Would Trumps Support Change If He Were Charged With A Crime
The former president faces a handful of investigations, including from the Department of Justice and the U.S. House select committee on the origins of the Jan. 6 attack, a grand jury looking into potential election interference in Georgia and, most recently, an FBI probe into classified materials removed from the White House and kept at Trumps Florida estate. Some had been recovered or returned earlier this year. But when the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago last month, agents still found more than 100 classified documents and 43 empty folders with classified markings, among thousands of other official records, according to a Department of Justice list of items.
Support for Trumps candidacy in 2024 would not change much if any of these investigations result in Trump being charged with a crime, according to this poll. Sixty-five percent of Americans would oppose another run for the White House. More than six in 10 Republicans would still want to see him launch a campaign. Meanwhile, 73 percent of independents say he should not run again if he is charged.
This poll is just a snapshot of the current political environment. With two months until the midterm elections and another two years until the 2024 presidential election, a lot can still change with the Republican primary field and the investigations.
Graphic by Megan McGrew
How Voters Who Dont Back Desantis Or Trump See Things
The latest figures collected more than a year before the first primary votes will be cast in the GOPs 2024 contest could obviously change: The Nov. 2-7 survey was conducted before Trump used an election eve appearance on the campaign trail in Ohio to tease plans for a very big Nov. 15 announcement, and before Republicans underperformed high expectations in the midterm elections on the same day DeSantis ran well ahead of Trumps margins in his state.
But at this early point, and even before the results of the 2022 elections came into view, potential 2024 GOP primary voters who arent supporting Trump or DeSantis ascribed conflicting sentiments toward the former president while appearing less certain about the Florida governor.
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Some Very Good Polling News For Donald Trump
Among all-important Iowa voters, former President Donald Trump notched his highest favorability rating ever, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
- 53% of Iowans now have a favorable view of Trump.
- 45% now have an unfavorable view of Trump.
- 2% are not sure how they feel.
To be clear,The Point: A new poll shows Iowans are bigger fans of Trump than ever. And that could fuel his ongoing flirtation with running for president again in 2024.
