Where Can I Get More Detailed Information
Soumya Karlamangla contributed reporting.
What Does The Recall Mean For The 2022 Midterms
As election day nears, pro-recall campaigners and Elder are holding rallies to get out the vote. Nationally, political strategists and media are circling, awaiting data that can be picked apart from clues ahead of the 2022 midterms.
Its really about 2022, explained Raphael Sonenshein, political scientist and head of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at California State University. Analysts want to know what strategies are most effective and which base is more mobilised, he said. People are looking for the entrails of the chicken to find out whats happening out there.
If Newsom survives, he faces a general election in November 2022. If he is kicked out, his replacement would only hold power for one year before the next election.
California recalls were originally intended as a check on power, but ultimately either party can spin the results for political gain.
Regardless of the outcome, Romero said the recalls success has emboldened Republicans. The midterms often swing back towards the party that lost the last election, and the recall gives Republicans a powerful narrative to say, Were taking back our country, she explained.
Its a dream come true for Republican strategists to be able to point to whats happening in the recall, she said.
What Happens After Sept 14
Counties can begin releasing results on election night at 8 p.m.
Like other elections in California, the race may not be decided on election night if there are still a large number of outstanding mail-in ballots.
Counties must finish counting ballots and certify their results by Oct. 14. The Secretary of State will certify the results on Oct. 22. If the governor is recalled, he will need to vacate the office by that date and the winning replacement candidate will be sworn in.
If Newsom is recalled, his replacement will finish the rest of his term, which ends in early 2023. They would have to run for re-election in 2022 if they want to stay in office after that.
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The Mail Ballot Factor Is A Wild Card
Early on, California election authorities decided to proactively send mail ballots to all registered voters, just as they did in the pandemic general election of 2020. They can be returned via enclosed postage paid envelopes or dropped off at voting centers on September 14. So, if California Democrats do become motivated to vote, it wont be hard for them to do so. And you do have to wonder if Donald Trumps demonization of mail ballots during and after the 2020 presidential election might still inhibit Republicans from voting that way, even if there remains an option for turning in ballots in person.
Who Can Run In A Recall
Candidates to replace the governor must be U.S. citizens registered to vote in California, and must pay a filing fee of about $4,000 or submit signatures from 7,000 supporters. They cannot be convicted of certain felonies, and they cannot be the governor up for recall. They have until 59 days before the election to file.
The ballot asks voters two questions: Should the governor be recalled? And if so, who should be the new governor? If the majority of voters say no to the first question, the second is moot. But if more than 50 percent vote yes, the challenger with the most votes becomes the next governor.Critics of the recall contend this is a major flaw because 49.9 percent of the voters could theoretically vote to keep Mr. Newsom, and he could still lose and be replaced by a challenger whose plurality makes up a far smaller sliver of voters. A legal challenge to this effect is pending in federal court in Los Angeles.
The 2003 winner, Mr. Schwarzenegger, had only 48.6 percent of the vote.
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How Californias Gavin Newsom Could Lose His Job To A Republican In A Recall
How does a relatively popular Democratic governor in one of the bluest states in the country find himself at serious risk of losing his job to a Trump-supporting Republican?
The answer in the case of Californias Gavin Newsom is a mix of excitement among conservatives, apathy from everyone else, a confusing process and tensions heightened by the pandemic. Californians will vote by Sept. 14 on whether to kick Newsom out of office three years into his first term. If they do, the candidate currently most likely to replace him is an anti-mask-mandate conservative radio host who cuts against the states liberal slant.
Heres what you need to know to follow the California gubernatorial recall election.
How California’s Recall Could Reverberate In Future Elections
While good for Elder, Tuesdays election suggests its even better for Newsom.
Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks to the press on Wednesday, one day after defeating a Republican-led recall effort. | Nick Otto/AP Photo
09/15/2021 09:08 PM EDT
SACRAMENTO In the end, Californias recall amounted to a $276 million exercise that dealt state Republicans a blow heading into next years elections.
Gov. Gavin Newsom resoundingly defeated the recall attempt Tuesday night by a margin wider than thought possible a month ago, landing on a winning message that energized his base while he laid the groundwork for 2022 voter outreach in battleground areas as he is up for reelection.
Republicans must quickly regroup and assess their chances at defeating a newly emboldened Newsom at the same time they strategize to score wins in congressional and downballot races.
The recall gave rise to conservative talk-show host Larry Elders political career, and he is now the California Republican Party’s flag-bearer less than nine months before the June primary. Elder drew more than five times as many votes as his nearest Republican rival, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, in the initial vote tally.
Here are five things to watch in the coming months:
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State Political Party Revenue
State political parties typically deposit revenue in separate state and federal accounts in order to comply with state and federal campaign finance laws.
The Democratic Party and the Republican Party maintain state affiliates in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and select U.S. territories. The following map displays total state political party revenue per capita for the Democratic and Republican state party affiliates.
Larry Elder Echoes Trump’s ‘big Lie’
Soneff noted that Republicans’ lower ballot return rate so far is not entirely a surprise in the wake of the 2020 presidential election.
Former President Donald Trump notoriously slammed mail-in voting last year, falsely claiming that it is rife with voter fraud and disadvantageous to Republicans.
Trump has convinced much of his Republican base that mail-in voting is “corrupt,” which could explain the depressing ballot return rate of Republicans in the recall election so far, Soneff said.
“Voting by mail has taken place in the United States since the late 1700s and has always been an integral part of elections, but Donald Trump’s view that voting by mail is inherently bad has had a lasting effect on the Republican party,” Soneff said.
Trump’s influence can be seen among GOP candidates such as Elder, who expressed his distrust in the state and nation’s voting system on Fox News last week. Elder echoed the former president’s false claims that there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election, and has sought to cast the same doubts on California’s recall election.
Biden, who campaigned with Newsom on the eve of the recall election, directly linked Elder to Trump.
“All of you know, last year I got to run against the real Donald Trump,” Biden said at the rally in Long Beach, California while making the sign of the cross across his chest. “Well, this year, the leading Republican running for governor is the closest thing to a Trump clone that I have ever seen in your state.”
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Newsom’s Coronavirus Campaign Strategy
Allegations that Newsom mishandled the state’s response to the coronavirus pandemic fueled the Republican-led recall effort in 2020.
However, in the weeks leading up to the recall election, Newsom’s campaign has seized on pandemic fears to help secure his likely victory.
“The great irony of this election is that what sparked the recall effort nine months ago is now helping Newsom fend it off,” GOP consultant Rob Stutzman said.
Californians named coronavirus as the top issue facing the state, according to a conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, or PPIC. Many of Newsom’s anti-recall ads and campaign stops in recent weeks have zeroed in on this, warning voters about what may happen to the state’s coronavirus conditions if a Republican opponent takes his place in office.
“Republicans are trying to recall from office and overturn common-sense Covid safety measures for health-care workers and school staff,” former President Barack Obama said in the newest anti-recall ad.
Each voter’s ballot “could be the difference between protecting our kids and putting them at risk, helping Californians recover or taking us backwards,” Obama added.
Biden conveyed a similar message during his remarks at the Long Beach rally on Monday.
“Voting no would be protecting Californians from Trump Republicans who are trying to block us from beating this pandemic,” Biden said at the rally.
Democrats Wanted Trump Gone Now They Want Him On The Ballot
LOS ANGELES Democrats are growing confident that California Gov. Gavin Newsom will prevail in Tuesday’s recall election, averting political disaster by energizing liberal voters. Across the country, his party is paying close attention to how he’s doing it: Warning Democrats that if they stay home, Donald Trump and his agenda will prevail.
Trumpism is still alive all across this country, Newsom said at a recent campaign stop in East Los Angeles, talking to volunteers for a Black voter outreach group before they began knocking on doors. Is it any surprise the entire Trump organization is behind this recall?
California is one of three Democratic-led states the others are Virginia and New Jersey holding statewide elections this year. In each state, party leaders acknowledge that in past elections Trump polarized and motivated voters that they had never won before his presidency. Democrats worried that his absence from the ballot, along with their partys historic difficulties in turning voters out in nonpresidential elections, would threaten their chances.
Yet in all three, Democrats say they think that the ex-president, who has hinted at a third run in 2024, still has power to mobilize liberal voters and keep suburban moderates in the Democratic tent, even if he is no longer on the ballot or in office. The recall will be the first test of whether theyre right.
Democrats also are counting on changes that have made it easier to vote early or vote by mail.
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List Of Current Members Of The Us Congress
|Features of Congress|
|Lifetime voting recordsNet worth of United States Senators and RepresentativesStaff salaries of United States Senators and RepresentativesNational Journal vote ratings|
The United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the United States of Americas federal government. It consists of two houses, the Senate and the House of Representatives, with members chosen through direct election.
Congress has 535 voting members. The Senate has 100 voting officials, and the House has 435 voting officials, along with five delegates and one resident commissioner.
to find your representatives with Ballotpedias Who represents me? tool.
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Will California Gov Gavin Newsom Be Kicked Out In Recall Vote
Polls show Newsom will likely stay in office, but the recall has emboldened Republicans.
San Francisco, California The Democratic governor of a deep blue state could be removed by Republicans.
California Governor Gavin Newsom faces a high-stakes election on September 14 that threatens to replace him with one of the dozens of candidates, including a popular conservative radio host who is against abortion and has praised former Republican President Donald Trump.
Newsom is in the midst of a recall election an attempt by Republican voters to remove him from office. Nationally, the outcome could be a bellwether for the 2022 congressional midterm elections, and top Democrats are throwing their weight behind Newsom.
This week, Vice President Kamala Harris travelled to the Bay Area to support Newsom, and President Joe Biden is expected to join his campaign next week.
Registered voters are receiving ballots in the mail that pose two questions: first, should Newsom be recalled? If voters answer yes, they can choose from a list of 46 candidates to replace him.
If 50 percent or more vote against recalling Newsom, he will remain in office. If a majority votes in favour of recalling him, he would be removed, and the candidate with the most votes on the second question would replace him.
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How To Vote In Californias Recall
FAQ on how to cast your ballot in Californias recall election. Ballots must be postmarked, placed in a dropbox, or delivered to a polling place .
How do I support Gavin Newsom in the recall election?1. Vote NO on the recall and leave the second question blank2. Send back your mail-in ballot by 9/14
How can I vote in this election?All registered voters will receive mail-in ballots. You can also vote in person at a voting center or polling place.
When and how do I have to return my ballot so that it gets counted?Ballots must be postmarked, placed in a dropbox, or delivered to a polling place by 8 pm on September 14.
Who receives a ballot?Every registered voter will be mailed a mail in ballot.
What if I am not registered to vote?Californians can register online or by mail to receive a mail-in ballot until August 30 at registertovote.ca.gov. You can also register the same-day as you vote in person at a polling place or vote center after September 4. You can find more information on the requirements for registering to vote here:
How do I check my voter registration status?Visit VoterStatus.sos.ca.gov for info on your voter registration status.
How can I get updates on the status of my ballot?Sign-up at to receive automatic email, SMS , or voice call notications about your ballot. This will tell you if your ballot has been mailed, received, and counted.
The Elder Conundrum For Republicans
Elder was such a gift to Newsom that even many Republicans acknowledged he was tanking what little shot the GOP had at recalling the governor.
But it was Elder, easily portrayed by Newsom as a Donald Trump clone, whom the Republican base loved. Faulconer and other more moderate Republicans didnt stand a chance.
In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1, the answer would seem to involve running a Republican who could peel off some Democratic and independent votes and also have enough money to self-finance a credible campaign.
That might not work, anyway, in a state as Democratic as California. Meg Whitman lost in 2010, after all. And in the modern GOP, there may not be another chance. After Tuesday, Elder is the undeniably the partys standard-bearer in California.
Elder can completely hijack this altar next year for his own purposes, whatever they may be, said Rob Stutzman, a GOP political strategist in California. If he runs again, Stutzman said, it will further delay a serious attempt at a comeback for California Republicans.”
Other Republicans fear Elder could hamper voter outreach to women, Asian Americans and Latinos. The radio personality’s 30 years of controversial remarks provided Newsom with perfect fodder to tie the party to Trump.
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Republican Party Of California
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|Republican Party of California|
Could Governor Newsom Actually Be Removed From Office What Do The Polls Show
As of September 8, over 6 million voters have already cast ballots in the race. That’s 80% of the number of ballots that had been returned at an equivalent point last year, about one week out from Election Day. Early voting has slowed down since the week before then, when it was more or less keeping pace with the general election. A big question going forward is whether the high rate of early voting will sustain or slow down further in the coming days.
Democrats hold a massive advantage in party registration numbers. As of July 16, there were 10.3 million registered Democrats in California, accounting for 46.5% of all registered voters. There were about 5.3 million Republican voters and about 5.1 million who registered as “No Party Preference.”
But recent polling suggests that Newsom is far from in the clear and his biggest issue may be complacency among Democratic voters.
According to a new CBS News poll, 78% of Republicans say they will definitely vote, while 73% of Democrats say they definitely will. Republican voters are also more motivated to cast ballots than Democrats. The poll found that among registered voters, 54% think Newsom should not be recalled, compared to 46% who think he should. But among likely voters, the gap narrowed to 52% against the recall compared to 48% who support it.
“Those that think this thing is not close I’d hate to disabuse you. It is,” Newsom said recently.
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