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How Much Votes Does Donald Trump Have

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How Trump Could Still Win The Electoral College Despite Bidens Lead

How much sway does Trump still have on election outcomes?

In the final weeks of the 2020 election, Joe Biden has enjoyed a steady advantage in national polls, which attempt to measure the popular vote. Just 9 days before the election, Bidens average polling lead is 8.0 points above Trump. Could Trump defeat Biden in spite of trailing him so much? In a word, yes. There are three factors that could result in a Trump Electoral College victory on such a poor popular vote showing.

First, Trump performs less well in the red states than he did in 2016, thereby making his red state victories less inefficient. Theres some evidence to suggest that this is happening. Texas this time is a swing state, whereas in 2016 it was assumed to be safe for Trump. As of the time of writing, Trump has a 2.6 average poll lead in Texas, whereas in 2016 he won the state by 9 points. Lets imagine Trump only wins Texas by 1 point . This is a much more efficient win for Trump, but it could depress his national popular vote totals by about three quarters of a million votes.

Pushpins in a map over the U.S.A. by is licensed under CC BY 2.0

Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.

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Certification Of Electoral College Votes

The 117th United States Congress first convened on January 3, 2021, and was scheduled to count and certify the Electoral College votes on January 6, 2021. There were 222 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House there were 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and two independents in the Senate. Several Republican members of the House and Senate said they would raise objections to the reported count in several states, meeting the requirement that if a member from each body objects, the two houses must meet separately to discuss whether to accept the certified state vote. A statement from the vice president’s office said Pence welcomes the plan by Republicans to “raise objections and bring forward evidence” challenging the election results.

On December 28, 2020, Representative Louie Gohmert filed a lawsuit in Texas challenging the constitutionality of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, claiming Vice President Pence has the power and ability to unilaterally decide which slates of electoral votes get counted. The case was dismissed on January 1, 2021, for lack of both standing and jurisdiction. The plaintiffs filed an appeal, and the appeal was dismissed by a three-judge panel of the appeals court the next day.

Demographic Profiles Of Trump And Biden Voters

As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. Overall, Biden voters were younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and less likely to live in rural areas than Trump voters.

In 2020, 85% of voters who cast a ballot for Trump were White non-Hispanic this compares with just 61% of Biden voters. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016.

Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. That is significantly higher than the share of Trump voters who were Black .


The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters.

Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. And rural voters remain a significantly larger portion of the Republican electorate.

However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. In 2016, about half of Clintons voters described their communities as suburban , while 32% said they were from an urban area and 19% were from a rural area.

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How Many Electoral Votes Does Donald Trump Have In Battleground States

Next, there are two states that typically vote Republican, but where Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton appears to be running close in polls. The consensus is that Trump will win these two states, but it will be close:


Wins in these two sates, plus the traditional red states, give Trump 190 electoral votes. So, he still needs 80 more votes to make it to the White House.

That brings us to the six battleground states. They are:

Trump Campaign To File Petition For Recount In Two Wisconsin Counties

Final Vote Count 2016

With no precedent for overturning a result as large as Biden’s, Trump was widely expected to head to court once the recount was finished. His campaign challenged thousands of absentee ballots during the recount, and even before it was complete, Trump tweeted that he would sue.

The Wisconsin recount is not about finding mistakes in the count, it is about finding people who have voted illegally, and that case will be brought after the recount is over, on Monday or Tuesday, Trump tweeted on Saturday. We have found many illegal votes. Stay tuned!

The Wisconsin recount is not about finding mistakes in the count, it is about finding people who have voted illegally, and that case will be brought after the recount is over, on Monday or Tuesday. We have found many illegal votes. Stay tuned!

Donald J. Trump

Trumps lawyer Jenna Ellis responded later Sunday, tweeting, The recounts in Dane and Milwaukee Counties have revealed serious issues regarding the legality of ballots cast. As we have said from the very beginning, we want every legal vote, and only legal votes to be counted, and we will continue to uphold our promise to the American people to fight for a free and fair election.


The deadline to certify the vote is Tuesday. Certification is done by the Democratic chair of the Wisconsin Election Commission, which is bipartisan.

Another suit filed over the weekend by Wisconsin resident Dean Mueller argues that ballots placed in drop boxes are illegal and must not be counted.

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New 2020 Voter Data: How Biden Won How Trump Kept The Race Close And What It Tells Us About The Future

As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well.

Now, using a massive sample of validated voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has . It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did notand why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.


How Joe Biden won

Five main factors account for Bidens success.

  • The Biden campaign reunited the Democratic Party. Compared to 2016, he raised the share of moderate and conservative Democrats who voted for the Democratic nominee by 6 points, from 85 to 91%, while increasing the Democratic share of liberal Democrats from 94 to 98%. And he received the support of 85% of Democrats who had defected to 3rd party and independent candidates in 2016.
  • How Trump kept it close

    Despite non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends.

    Longer-term prospects


    Trump Falls Short In Wisconsin Recount He Paid $3 Million For

    MADISON, Wis. Wisconsin finished a recount of its presidential results on Sunday, confirming Democrat Joe Biden’s victory over President Donald Trump in the key battleground state. Trump vowed to challenge the outcome in court even before the recount concluded.

    Dane County was the second and last county to finish its recount, reporting a 45-vote gain for Trump. Milwaukee County, the state’s other big and overwhelmingly liberal county targeted in a recount that Trump paid $3 million for, reported its results Friday, a 132-vote gain for Biden.

    Taken together, the two counties barely budged Biden’s winning margin of about 20,600 votes, giving the winner a net gain of 87 votes.

    As we have said, the recount only served to reaffirm Joe Bidens victory in Wisconsin,” Danielle Melfi, who led Biden’s campaign in Wisconsin, said in a statement to The Associated Press.

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    Attempts To Delay Or Deny Election Results

    Republican reactions to Donald Trump’s claims of 2020 election fraudTexas v. Pennsylvaniaamicus curiae

    In November, Trump focused his efforts on trying to delay vote certifications at the county and state level. On December 2, Trump posted a 46-minute video to his social media in which he repeated his baseless claims that the election was “rigged” and fraudulent and called for either the state legislatures or the courts to overturn the results of the election and allow him to stay in office. He continued to apply pressure to elected Republicans in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in an unprecedented attempt to overturn the election result. Some commentators have characterized Trump’s actions as an attempted coup d’état or self-coup.

    On December 15, the day after the electoral college vote, Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, who was previously among those who would not recognize the election results, publicly accepted Biden’s win, saying, “Today, I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden.”

    In a December 21 news conference, outgoing Attorney General William Barr disavowed several actions reportedly being considered by Trump, including seizing voting machines, appointing a special counsel to investigate voter fraud, and appointing one to investigate Hunter Biden.

    Ap Fact Check: Yes Trump Lost Election Despite What He Says

    Donald Trump campaign loses lawsuit to stop vote count in Michigan: Reuters

    WASHINGTON Seeking to shame Republicans who are disloyal to him, former President Donald Trump distorted the Constitutions meaning in asserting widespread voter fraud and insisting that state legislatures could overturn Joe Bidens presidential win.


    Hes wrong on all those fronts.

    TRUMP: Had Mike Pence referred the information on six states back to State Legislatures … we would have had a far different Presidential result. statement Wednesday urging Republicans to push out Rep. Liz Cheney as the No. 3 House Republican in favor of Rep. Elise Stefanik, who voted to overturn Bidens victory in key states.

    THE FACTS: Trumps trash talk about his former vice president is fantasy.

    Pence had no authority under the Constitution, congressional rules, the law or custom to refer the results back to the states.

    On Jan. 6, Pence presided over the congressional tally of Electoral College votes, carrying out his ceremonial duty to announce who has won the majority of votes for president and vice president, when the proceedings were interrupted by a mob of angry Trump supporters whom Trump had exhorted to fight like hell earlier that day after falsely claiming election fraud.


    There was no role for the vice president to refer matters back to state legislatures, said Richard Hasen, an election law professor at the University of California, Irvine. This is not a thing.

    TRUMP: The election was corrupt and was indeed The Big Lie. statement Thursday.

    But it is.

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    A Closer Look At State Judges Votes Favoring Trumps Claims

    Intermediate appellate courts

    All six votes that state intermediate appellate court judges cast for Trump came from Republican-affiliated judges, five of them on Pennsylvanias Commonwealth Court, one of that states two intermediate appellate courts. Most were dissenting votes, but in one dispositive rulingTrump v. Boockvar, Nov. 12, 2020the then-president of that court, sitting alone, set aside a small number of votes based on flawed guidance regarding a deadline for verifying voter identification. This is apparently the one frequently cited Trump litigation victory.

    State supreme courts

    Twenty-one of the 27 Trump-favorable votes came from dissents on the seven-member supreme courts of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania10 cases in all. Trump lost all 10. All but one were split decisionsfive of the 10 were four-to-threelargely but not exclusively along party-affiliation lines. Democratic-identified justices cast 35 of the 49 votes against Trump, Republican-identified justices cast 20 of the 21 pro-Trump votes.

    Trump Pacs Paid Lawyers Nearly $8 Million As He Fought Election Results And Impeachment

    • Trump’s political action committees spent $7.9 million on legal matters related to the 2020 recount and his impeachment fight.
    • Four committees linked to Trump made the payments during the first half of 2021, according to new Federal Election Commission filings.
    • The Make America Great Again PAC paid Rudy Giuliani’s security firm just over $76,000 for travel expenses.

    Former President Donald Trump’s political action committees combined to spend just over $7.9 million on legal fees, with much of it going toward lawyers who attempted to overturn the 2020 election and defended him during his second impeachment trial.

    Four committees linked to Trump made the payments during the first half of 2021, filings show. The Make America Great Again PAC paid out just over $7.8 million of the total legal expenditures. The committee is Trump’s former campaign account. His team turned it into a PAC earlier this year.

    Trump’s leadership PAC, Save America, spent just over $50,000 in legal fees, while its sister joint fundraising committees paid out around $40,000. The Trump Make America Great Again Committee, which raised money with the Republican National Committee, spent nearly $37,000 on legal costs.

    Trump announced over the weekend that his committees raised nearly $82 million and has over $100 million on hand. The former president used fundraising promotions during his election challenge and impeachment to raise cash for both legal efforts.

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    Trump Got 10 Million More Votes This Election Where Did They Come From

    Whether horrified or galvanized by Donald Trumps rhetoric, the presidential election saw a motivated and divided America. Voters who wanted to Make America Great Again came out in droves to the polls, hoping to beat Joe Bidens message of unity. And while they were ultimately unsuccessful, we can learn a lot from looking at who showed up to vote.

    This election had more voters than ever before: Two-thirds of eligible Americans turned out to vote in 2020, with nearly 160 million voters casting ballots 22 million more than in 2016, and the highest proportion of Americans exercising their right to vote since 1900. At the time of publication, Biden has received over 79.3 million votes, while Trump has gotten nearly 73.5 million. While a motivated Democratic Party expected to see a huge surge in votes, what was perhaps most surprising was the additional 10.1 million people who voted for Trump this year than in 2016. After Trump completely mishandled a national pandemic, spewed daily nonsense on Twitter, and literally caged children, who exactly were these 10 million new voters choosing Trump to continue leading the country?

    Unfortunately, we have a lot of good candidates who their message gets overshadowed by millions of dollars of the Republican message that just literally doesnt even use their own words, Rep. Tony Cardenas of California, who is running to lead the DCCC, told NPR. And those are the kinds of tactics that were having to combat.

    False Claims Of Fraud

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    Trump and a variety of his surrogates and supporters made a series of observably false claims that the election was fraudulent. Claims that substantial fraud was committed have been repeatedly debunked. On November 9 and 10, The New York Times called the offices of top election officials in every state all 45 of those who responded said there was no evidence of fraud. Some described the election as remarkably successful considering the coronavirus pandemic, the record turnout, and the unprecedented number of mailed ballots. On November 12, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued a statement calling the 2020 election “the most secure in American history” and noting “here is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.” Trump fired the director of CISA five days later.

    Motivated by the myth of widespread fraud, Republican state lawmakers initiated a push to make voting laws more restrictive.

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    How Trump Voted 2016

    Biden singled out Trumps voting history in 2020, but we decided to look back at his voting habits back to the 2016 general election. We contacted a spokesperson for the New York City Board of Elections to ask questions about Trumps voting history, but did not hear back by deadline. However, we found news reports showing that sometimes as a New York voter, Trump cast an absentee ballot.

    2018: In the midterm elections, Trump voted absentee, a White House spokesperson told reporters.

    Many high-ranking officials in the Trump administration or the campaign voted by mail in 2018 or in recent years prior, including Vice President Mike Pence, Attorney General Bill Barr, Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany and campaign manager Brad Parscale, according to The Washington Post.

    2017: The New York Daily News reported that Trump filled out an absentee ballot for the mayoral election and checked a box on an application stating he would be absent from the city on Election Day. The newspaper found that Trumps ballot application listed his birthday as July but it is actually June 14, 1946. NY1 reported that Trump and his wife Melania authorized a campaign staffer to pick up the ballots for them.

    2016: Trump voted in person in the November election at Manhattans Public School 59, blocks from Trump Tower, where he lived.

    “At least you can say the Trumpster doesnt give up,” Trump says. “Youve gotta vote.” “Access Hollywood” reported that Trump cast a provisional ballot.

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