How Mitch Mcconnell And Senate Republicans Learned To Stop Worrying About A Biden Victory And Love The Infrastructure Bill
What happened Tuesday in the Senate might seem like nothing short of a political miracle: Nineteen Republican senators, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, joined with Democrats to pass a $1?trillion infrastructure bill, advancing President Biden’s top domestic priority.
But those Republicans said there was nothing mystical about it. The vote was the result of a carefully calibrated alignment of interests, one shepherded and ultimately supported by a group of senators isolated from the immediate pressures of the GOP voter base, which remains loyal to former president Donald Trump, who repeatedly urged the bill’s defeat.
Among those interests is a strategic one, McConnell and other Republicans said. By joining with Democrats in an area of mutual accord, they are seeking to demonstrate that the Senate can function in a polarized political environment. That, they believe, can deflate a Democratic push to undo the filibuster — the 60-vote supermajority rule than can allow a minority to block most legislation — while setting up a stark contrast as Democrats move alone on a $3.5?trillion economic package.
“I’ve never felt that we ought to be perceived as being opposed to everything,” McConnell said in an interview Tuesday, before commenting on the slender nature of the Democratic congressional majorities, then rattling off bipartisan bills that passed during his time as party leader under two previous presidents.
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Republicans Senate Wins Will Help President Trump His Judicial And Cabinet Nominees And Gop Chances In 2020
WASHINGTON – Republicans held on strongly Tuesday to their second-most important bastion of power: the United States Senate.
That means President Donald Trump, who holds the most important power center, can continue getting conservative federal judges confirmed – something he has done in record numbers already. And he is in a strong position should another vacancy materialize on the Supreme Court.
It means Trump’s anticipated shakeup of his administration should go relatively smoothly: Senate Republicans will be able to rubber-stamp new Cabinet nominees for posts ranging from attorney general to, possibly, defense secretary.
It means that no matter what the new Democratic House of Representatives does in terms of investigating Trump, the Senate is poised to beat back impeachment, as it did for President Bill Clinton in 1998.
And by gaining rather than losing Senate seats, it means Republicans have a vastly improved chance of keeping control through 2020, when they will be defending 22 of 34 seats up for grabs. That represents a table-turning from this year’s election, when Democrats had to defend 26 of 35 seats.
Even Sen. Mitch McConnell, the normally stone-faced GOP leader of the Senate, showed a glimpse of glee Wednesday.
“I had one of the cable networks on this morning, and they said, “This is probably a rare opportunity to see McConnell smile,’” the Kentucky Republican told reporters.
Republicans Are Expected To Gain Seats In Redrawn 2022 Congressional Maps But Democrats Could Be Worse Off
U.S. Census data released Monday will shift political power in Congress, reapportioning two House seats to Texas and one each to Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, Colorado, and Montana — and stripping a seat from California , New York , Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and West Virginia. Florida, Texas, and Arizona — each controlled entirely by Republicans — had been expecting to pick up an additional seat.
“On balance, I think this reapportionment offers a small boost for Republicans, but the bigger boost is likely to come from how Republicans draw these seats in Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia,” the Cook Political Report‘s Dave Wasserman tells Axios. “Reapportionment itself means little compared to the redistricting fights to come.” It won’t exactly be a level playing field.
“Republicans control the redistricting process in far more states than do Democrats, because of GOP dominance in down-ballot elections,”The New York Times reports. “Democrats, meanwhile, have shifted redistricting decisions in states where they have controlled the government — such as California, Colorado, and Virginia — to independent commissions intended to create fair maps.”
House seats broken down by final redistricting authority :
– Republican: 187
— Dave Wasserman April 26, 2021
More stories from theweek.com
Are The Renewed Requests To Wear A Mask Even If Fully Vaccinated More About Health Care Or About Politics
Republicans and Democrats traded Senate seat pickups Tuesday, but control of the chamber was still very much in doubt as the clock ticked over into Wednesday.
Sen. Cory Gardner, a Republican, was ousted in Colorado, while Sen. Doug Jones, a Democrat, lost his seat in Alabama.
The two parties held serve elsewhere in early returns, with Democrats winning along the mid-Atlantic and Republicans defending seats throughout much of the heartland.
TOP STORIESEvidence presented to grand jury in John Durham probe
That included Iowa, where Sen. Joni Ernst fended off a stiff challenge. In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis claimed victory, holding a 2-point lead with nearly all ballots counted. His opponent hadn’t conceded.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, the top-ranking Republican on Capitol Hill, won a seventh term and handily fended off a challenge by Democrat Amy McGrath, despite being vastly outspent.
Money flowed to Ms. McGrath from Democrats across the country eager to oust the man who sidelined their attempt to impeach President Trump, then pushed through his third Supreme Court nominee just a week ago.
“Democrats threw everything they had at him and he vanquished his opponent in typical fashion,” said Sen. Todd Young, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Should that result hold, Ms. McSally will have lost Senate races in 2018 and 2020.
Mr. Kelly didn’t exactly claim victory Tuesday, but came close.
Five of those seats were in play this year.
The Bottom Line: Republicans Pick Up Many Seats In State House And State Senate Growing Supermajorities
On Tuesday night, Kentucky’s election results showed a huge sweep for Republicans at the state level as they brought their majorities to 75 of 100 members in the House and 30 of 38 members in the Senate.
At the national level, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell won his re-election race by a large margin and all of Kentucky’s congressmen easily won their re-election races.
As we wait to see the final results in the presidential race and learn who will control the U.S. Senate, here is a look at how many state races played out.
Much of the following is written based on unofficial election results but many of the margins are safe.
Some of the most notable races people had been watching closely include:
- Rep. Jason Nemes holding his seat in Louisville after winning 54.4% of the vote with 94.29% of precincts reporting
- Sen. Chris McDaniel winning his re-election race in northern Kentucky by 8,644 votes by the end of the night with 83.13% of precincts reporting
- The Republican Johnnie L. Turner beating longtime incumbent Democrat Sen. Johnny Ray Turner .
- A Republican will hold a longtime Democratic Senate seat as Adrienne Southworth ended up with 52.6% of the vote over current state Rep. Joe Graviss and the son of retiring state Sen. and former Governor Julian Carroll, Ken Carroll . 95.88% of precincts had reported in this race at the time this story was written.
- Democratic Rep. Maria Sorolis narrowly losing her Louisville race to GOP candidate and former legislator Ken Fleming .
Pelosi Says It Doesnt Matter Right Now If Shell Seek Another Term As Speaker Beyond 2022
In a press call, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shot down a question about whether this upcoming term would be her last as speaker, calling it the “least important question you could ask today.” She added that “the fate of our nation, the soul of the nation” is at stake in the election.
“Elections are about the future,” Pelosi said. “One of these days I’ll let you know what my plans are, when it is appropriate and when it matters. It doesn’t matter right now.”
After the 2018 election, Pelosi agreed to term limits on Democratic leaders that would prevent her from serving as speaker beyond 2022.
Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican
Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.
Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have defeated Georgia’s two incumbent Republican U.S. senators in the state’s runoff elections, the Associated Press said Wednesday, in a development that gives their party effective control of the Senate.
Ossoff and Warnock were projected the winners over Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by the AP following campaigns that drew massive spending and worldwide attention because the runoffs were set to determine the balance of power in Washington. The AP , at about 2 a.m. Eastern, then followed with the call for Ossoff over Perdue on Wednesday afternoon.
President-elect Joe Biden’s incoming administration and the Democratic-run House of Representatives now won’t face the same checks on their policy priorities that they would have faced with a Republican-controlled Senate, though analysts have said the slim Democratic majority in the chamber could mean more power for moderate senators from either party.
“It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one,” said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.
Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.
Maine North Carolina Iowa And Montana Could Decide Whether Congress Takes Action
As one of the most taxing and truly bizarre election years in memory enters its final weeks, most Americans are laser-focused on a single question: Which septuagenarian will occupy the White House for the next four years?
But the most important races for the future of the planet might just be in Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, and Montana, where Democrats and Republicans are tussling over seats that will decide the balance of power in the U.S. Senate — and the likelihood of passing any significant climate legislation.
Across the country, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs, and just four of those seats could decide whether a new administration could pass real, comprehensive legislation to mute the drumbeat of climate disasters.
Biden has promised that, if elected, he will spend $2 trillion on boosting clean energy and work to rid the country’s electricity grid of fossil fuels by 2035. To do either, though, he’d need Democrats to pick up enough seats to hold a majority of the Senate, or many more to overcome a deal-killing filibuster.
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Here are the four races that could decide whether the next Congress will pass climate legislation — or drag its feet for another four years.
Election 2010: Republicans Net 60 House Seats 6 Senate Seats And 7 Governorships
The dust has — mostly — settled on the 2010 midterm election with Republicans claiming across-the-board victories in House, Senate and gubernatorial contests. Here’s a look at where things stand.
1. In the House, Republicans have gained 60 seats so far with 11 Democratic districts — Kentucky’s 6th, Georgia’s 2nd, Illinois’s 8th, Michigan’s 9th, Texas’s 27th, Arizona’s 7th and 8th, New York’s 25th, California’s 11th and 20th and Washington’s 2nd — too close too call. Most projections put the total GOP gain in the mid-60s although several of the uncalled contests are almost certainly headed for recounts.
The Republican House victory was vast and complete as GOP candidates bested not only Democratic incumbents who won their seats in 2006 or 2008 — two great elections for Democrats — but also long-serving incumbents such as Reps. John Spratt , Ike Skelton , Rick Boucher and Jim Oberstar .
Geographically, Republicans crushed Democrats in the Rust Belt — picking up five seats in Ohio, five seats in Pennsylvania, three seats in Illinois and two seats in Michigan.
The group most ravaged by losses last night were the 48 Democrats who represented districts Arizona Sen. John McCain won in 2008. Of those 48 members, a whopping 36 — 75 percent! — were defeated while 10 held on to win. Two Democrats in McCain districts — Kentucky Rep. Ben Chandler and Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords— are in tight races that have yet to be called by the Associated Press.
Gop Senate Candidates Align With Trump In Bashing Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill
Sen. Rob Portman, the longtime Washington veteran and savvy deal-cutter, is on the cusp of achieving a major bipartisan achievement that would amount to a capstone of his three decades of public service: The Senate’s passage of a roughly $1 trillion package to rebuild the nation’s infrastructure.
But the bevy of Ohio Republicans looking to replace the retiring senator in 2022 have a sharply different view. They are roundly criticizing the agreement as a budget-busting bill the US can’t afford, aligning themselves squarely with former President Donald Trump who has called on the GOP to oppose the sweeping proposal.
“The current infrastructure bill is filled with the far left’s wasteful wish list including the Green New Deal, gender identity and empowering woke bureaucrats,” said Scott Guthrie, the campaign manager for Senate candidate Josh Mandel.
The divide between Republicans on Capitol Hill and in Senate primaries isn’t unique to Ohio, reflecting how Trump’s influence now largely rests with the primary electorate, rather than with sitting GOP senators. While still more than half of the Senate GOP Conference is expected to oppose the bill, 17 senators joined with 50 Democrats on the first procedural vote to advance the bill – with the support of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.
Asked if he believes that Trump is influencing the views of the candidates, Tillis said: “I’m sure that has an influence.”
This GOP senator is now Enemy No. 1 for Trump
Democrats Weigh Next Options As Senate Republicans Filibuster Voting Rights Bill
“They don’t even want to debate it because they’re afraid. They want to deny the right to vote, make it harder to vote for so many Americans, and they don’t want to talk about it,” Schumer, D-N.Y., said on Tuesday. “There is a rot — a rot — at the center of the modern Republican party. Donald Trump’s big lie has spread like a cancer and threatens to envelop one of America’s major political parties.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been tasked by the White House to work on voting rights, presided over the Tuesday debate in the Senate.
The legislation is cosponsored by 49 Democratic members of the Senate. The one holdout, Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., said Tuesday he’d vote to begin debate after receiving assurances that the Senate would consider a compromise version that he has said he can support.
“Today I will vote ‘YES’ to move to debate this updated voting legislation as a substitute amendment to ensure every eligible voter is able to cast their ballot and participate in our great democracy,” Manchin said in a statement, while adding that he doesn’t support the bill as written.
“We’ll keep talking,” he said after the vote. “You can’t give up. You really can’t.”
Schumer said the vote was “the starting gun, not the finish line” in the battle over ballot access and vowed that Democrats “will not let it die.”
He told reporters on Tuesday that the state-led system held up well in the 2020 election.
It has been rejected by top Republicans as a nonstarter.
Cbs News Projects Hickenlooper Wins Colorado Senate Seat Democrats First Pickup
Democrats picked up their first Senate seat of the night, with CBS News projecting former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper has defeated incumbent GOP Senator Cory Gardner. Hickenlooper decided to run for Senate after running briefly in the Democratic presidential primary.
Gardner was considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for reelection this year, especially since he’s the only major statewide elected GOP official. Gardner has also been trailing Hickenlooper in polls leading up to Election Day.
While this is a victory for Democrats, they will have to pick up several other seats to gain a majority in the Senate.
House Candidate In Georgia Who Promoted Qanon Conspiracy Theories Likely To Win
Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, a QAnon supporter who has promoted conspiracy theories, is likely to win her Georgia House race. The QAnon mindset purports that President Trump is fighting against a deep state cabal of satanists who abuse children.
Greene has referred to the election of Muslim members to the House as “an Islamic invasion of our government,” and spread conspiracy theories about 9/11 and the 2017 Las Vegas shooting.
Mr. Trump has expressed his support for Taylor and called her a “future Republican star.” Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia, who is locked in a tight reelection race, campaigned with Taylor last month.
The House passed a bipartisan resolution condemning QAnon in early October.
Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won reelection, CBS News projects, after a contentious race. Although Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison outraised Graham by a significant amount, it was not enough to flip a Senate seat in the deep-red state.
Graham led the high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Harrison hit him for his reversal on confirming a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.
Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.
Mcconnell Not Troubled At All By Trumps Suggestion Of Supreme Court Challenge
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defended Mr. Trump for falsely claiming that he won reelection, although he acknowledged that the presidential race had not yet been decided.
“It’s not unusual for people to claim they have won the election. I can think of that happening on numerous occasions,” McConnell told reporters in Kentucky. “But, claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting.”
“Claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting,” Mitch McConnell says, adding that Americans “should not be shocked” that Democrats and Republicans are both lawyering up for the close races https://t.co/fxHKy8hSEppic.twitter.com/2pNlka2Jl4
— CBS News November 4, 2020
He also said he was “not troubled at all” by the president suggesting that the outcome of the election might be determined by the Supreme Court. The president cannot unilaterally bring a case to the Supreme Court, what it’s unclear what case the Trump campaign would have if it challenged the counting of legally cast absentee ballots.
McConnell, who won his own closely watched reelection race on Tuesday evening, expressed measured confidence about Republicans maintaining their majority in the Senate. He said he believed there is a “chance we will know by the end of the day” if Republicans won races in states like Georgia and North Carolina.
Pelosi Says American People Have Made Their Choice Clear In Voting For Biden
In a letter to her Democratic colleagues in the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed confidence that Biden would be elected president, even though several states have yet to be called.
“The American people have made their choice clear at the ballot box, and are sending Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House,” Pelosi said.
She also praised House Democrats for keeping their majority, saying that the House will “now have the opportunity to deliver extraordinary progress.” However, she only obliquely referenced the heavy losses by several freshmen Democrats who had flipped red seats.
“Though it was a challenging election, all of our candidates – both Frontline and Red to Blue – made us proud,” Pelosi said.
A Decade Of Power: Statehouse Wins Position Gop To Dominate Redistricting
Democrats spent big to take control of state legislatures but lost their key targets. Now they’ll be on the sidelines as new maps are drawn.
Protestors march in front of the Capitol in Austin, Texas, on Wednesday to demand all votes in the general election be counted. Texas Republicans will have total authority over the drawing of as many as 39 congressional districts in the state. | Jay Janner/Austin American-Statesman via AP
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Here’s something else Republicans can be happy about after Tuesday.
An abysmal showing by Democrats in state legislative races on Tuesday not only denied them victories in Sun Belt and Rust Belt states that would have positioned them to advance their policy agenda — it also put the party at a disadvantage ahead of the redistricting that will determine the balance of power for the next decade.
The results could domino through politics in America, helping the GOP draw favorable congressional and state legislative maps by ensuring Democrats remain the minority party in key state legislatures. Ultimately, it could mean more Republicans in Washington — and in state capitals.
After months of record-breaking fundraising by their candidates and a constellation of outside groups, Democrats fell far short of their goals and failed to build upon their 2018 successes to capture state chambers they had been targeting for years. And they may have President Donald Trump to blame.
New Hampshire Sits At The Center Of The Battle For Senate Control In 2022
WASHINGTON — It’s not a presidential election cycle, but the state of New Hampshire is poised to play a critical role in the fight for power in Washington, D.C. once again in 2022.
All eyes are on New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, who many Republicans view as one of the key ingredients to taking back control of the upper chamber — if he mounts a Senate bid.
But while the political world waits for that decision, the rough-and-tumble world of political advertising certainly is not waiting for anything. The New Hampshire race already ranks as the third-most expensive Senate race in the country when it comes to ad spending, according to AdImpact, with $2.9 million already spent.
And before the field is even set, both sides are making clear this will be a nationalized race.
Progressive groups are taking swipes at Sununu over things like signing new abortion restrictions, ahead of a major Supreme Court decision on abortion next year. And they’re calling him Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s “handpicked” candidate, trying to counter his strong approval rating in the state by tying him to Washington.
Republicans are working a similar angle, tying Hassan to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer while attacking H.R.1/S. 1 as Hassan’s
So far, six groups have already spent at least six figures on ads, all for a race that doesn’t have a Republican candidate — yet.
Democrats Flip The Senate In A Devastating Blow To Trump And Republicans
The Democratic Party has won control of the US Senate, according to the projected results of two crucial runoff elections in Georgia.
The Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock as of early Wednesday were projected to win their races against Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.
The Senate will now consist of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with the Democrats, resulting in a 50-50 split. But Democrats will effectively control the chamber because incoming Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tiebreaking vote.
The Senate map was stacked against the GOP in the 2020 election cycle. Of the 35 senators up for reelection, 12 were Democrats and 23 were Republicans. Of those, Republicans had to defend 10 seats in races considered competitive, while Democrats had to defend only two.
Democratic Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama was widely expected to lose his seat, meaning Democrats hoped to pick up four seats to get to a 50-50 tie and five seats to gain a majority.
Voting Legislation Blocked In Senate As Republicans Unite For Filibuster
WASHINGTON — Senate Republicans filibustered debate on voting rights legislation Tuesday, putting Democrats in a predicament about how to advance their high-priority bill.
The vote to advance an amended version of the “For The People Act” split along party lines 50–50, short of the 60 needed. All Democrats voted to begin debate and Republicans unanimously voting to block the bill.
Before the vote, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called the bill an effort to respond to restrictive voting laws in GOP-led states like Georgia, and said the procedural vote was simply to allow debate and an amendment process that will shape the eventual bill.
Democrats Got Millions More Votes So How Did Republicans Win The Senate
Senate electoral process means although Democrats received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, that does not translate to more seats
The 2018 midterm elections brought , who retook the House of Representatives and snatched several governorships from the grip of Republicans.
But some were left questioning why Democrats suffered a series of setbacks that prevented the party from picking up even more seats and, perhaps most consequentially, left the US Senate in Republican hands.
Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber.
Constitutional experts said the discrepancy between votes cast and seats won was the result of misplaced ire that ignored the Senate electoral process.
Because each state gets two senators, irrespective of population, states such as Wyoming have as many seats as California, despite the latter having more than 60 times the population. The smaller states also tend to be the more rural, and rural areas traditionally favor Republicans.
This year, because Democrats were defending more seats, including California, they received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, but that does not translate to more seats.
However, some expressed frustration with a system they suggest gives an advantage to conservative-leaning states.
Cori Bush Becomes Missouris First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects
Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and activist, has become Missouri’s first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the state’s first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.
Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. “As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment,” she told supporters in St. Louis.
Read more here.
How Maine And Nebraskas Split Electoral Votes Could Affect The Election
As the race drags into Wednesday, it appears two congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska could prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of the election.
Maine and Nebraska are the only states in the nation that split their electoral votes. Maine awards two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, but also allocates an electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of its two congressional districts. Nebraska gives two of its five electoral votes to the statewide winner, with the remaining three going to the popular vote winner in each of its three congressional districts.
Graham Claims Hes Never Been Challenged Like This After Senate Victory
Democrats largely focused their campaigns on protecting the Affordable Care Act and stepping up efforts to combat the coronavirus. Republicans mostly focused on the economy and preventing a Democratic-led Senate that could pursue progressive legislation in a potential Biden presidency.
Two top Republicans — Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Sen. John Cornyn of Texas — will be re-elected, NBC News projects. Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.V., Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., will be re-elected, NBC News projects. All were heavily favored.
Republicans held open seats in Wyoming and Kansas with victories by their candidates Cynthia Lummis and Roger Marshall, respectively, according to NBC News projections.
And Democrat Ben Ray Lujan won an open seat in New Mexico, keeping the state for Democrats.
The Next 2020 Election Fight Convincing Trumps Supporters That He Lost
In Alaska, incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan’s double-digit margin could tighten with mail-in votes still out and only 74% of the votes in as of Wednesday, so put an asterisk next to that one, but that was supposed to be a 3-point race.
There is going to be a reckoning — again — within the polling industry. Survey researchers are already combing their numbers for patterns of what went wrong.
Some theories at this point include:
Early voting: Surveys having too many people in their samples saying they would vote early. The pollsters had a tough time adjusting for that, because there’s no historical trend to go by.
Democratic overresponse: Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents seem to have been more willing to talk to pollsters, and pro-Trump Republicans just didn’t want to participate as much because of their deep distrust of and disdain for the polls and the media.
This is not the idea of a “shy” Trump voter. While survey researchers — Democratic, Republican and nonpartisan — all found people, especially women, less willing to say they are Trump supporters to their friends and families, there is little evidence they aren’t telling pollsters they support the president.
The bigger problem may be Trump supporters simply not wanting to participate at all. That would seem to make sense, considering the consistent underestimation of Republican vote, especially in Republican-leaning states.
