What These Shifts Mean For Future Elections
The exit polls and results from this years presidential election paint a somewhat different picture than the previous two races. After Obamas second victory in 2012, Democrats were touting a voter constituency made up of young people, diverse voters, and college-educated whites that they felt would provide them solid support for several elections to come. It even prompted Republicans to issue an autopsy urging the inclusion of a wider voter base. Yet after Trumps 2016 victory with strong support from older, less urban, and noncollege whites, many Republicans stayed onboard their earlier train.
In retrospect, it seems that both the 2012 Obama coalition and the 2016 Trump coalition overperformed in those elections. The 2020 results suggest neither party can rely solely on those particular sets of voters. As I have , there is no doubt that changing demographicsespecially rising diversityshould benefit Democrats in the long run .
But in the interim, the results of the 2020 election make plain that both parties need to address the interests of a coalition made up of all of these groups. The Trump presidency did not do thisperhaps a Biden presidency can.
More: Ron Desantis Shrugs Off 2024 Speculation
Registered Democrats have the edge in mail voting thus far, casting almost 50,000 more votes than their Republican counterparts, according to the state Divisions of Elections.
Yet Republicans, who have requested over 400,000 fewer mail ballots, are returning the ones they have at a higher rate. In Florida, whoever requested a mail ballot in 2020 was automatically sent one in 2022. Due to high Democrat mail turnout during the last presidential cycle, it is likely that the disparity in requests is due to the carryover from 2020 and not simply enthusiasm by Democrats about the voting method in 2022, McDonald said.
Historically, Democrats in Florida have turned out more than Republicans for early in-person voting while the GOP then sees larger numbers on Election Day.
But in 2020, as Democrats increasingly favored mail ballots amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Republicans also began to lead in early in-person voting. McDonald said.
“Republicans in the state of Florida don’t see as much of a threat from allowing those different forms of voting and promoting it, because they know that their campaigns are capable of turning their supporters out,” McDonald said.
“DeSantis has very, very deep pockets for his campaign. So they’ve got a machine that can do the voter mobilization,” he added.
Republicans in other states have both criticized early voting periods and encouraged their voters to use “whatever way you want,” as Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake put it earlier this month.
Interviews With Primary Voters Show Fatigue With Trumps Divisiveness And Interest In Florida Gov Ron Desantis
PHOENIX Dianne Kennedy voted a straight Trump ticket in Tuesdays Arizona primary, casting her ballot for the former presidents endorsed candidates in every race.
But when it comes to Donald Trumps own potential White House run in 2024, Kennedy isnt sure if shed support him again.
Theres so much hatred toward him, itll just tear up the country, Kennedy said in an interview outside her polling place in Paradise Valley, Ariz., near Phoenix. If he does run, I dont know what Id do.
Tuesdays primary results across the country were unquestionably a show of strength for Trumps enduring influence over the GOP. His preferred candidates, all of whom embrace his false claims of mass fraud in the 2020 election, led up and down the ballot in Arizona. State House Speaker Rusty Bowers, who resisted Trumps demands to overturn the election and testified to the congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, lost his primary for a state Senate seat. In Michigan, pro-impeachment Rep. Peter Meijer lost his reelection bid, and Trumps pick also won the gubernatorial primary.
Theres too many people that hate him, Charles Recker, a Republican from Phoenix who still likes Trump but doesnt want him to run again, said of the former president. You have other candidates that are similar to him but actually work with people a lot better, he said, suggesting DeSantis or former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley.
Recommended Reading: What Channel Will Patriots Game Be On
Whites Made Biden Competitive In Racially Diverse Sun Belt States
As the final votes were being counted, three Sun Belt states remained competitive between Biden and Trump: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. While their final outcomes also depended on nonwhite racial groups, white voting blocs in these states shifted since 2016 in ways that benefitted Biden. See Figure 4 and .
Take Arizona. It is a state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996. While rapidly diversifying, its older white population has leaned heavily toward Republicans. This time was different white college graduate women and men flipped sharply toward Democrats, from 2016 Republican advantages of 2% and 12%, respectively, to 2020 Democratic advantages of 15% and 3%. Likewise, white noncollege men reduced their Republican support from 28% to 10%. In addition, Arizonas senior population flipped from Republican support to even Democratic-Republican support.
These shifts, as well as increased Democratic support among 18- to 29-year-olds and continued Democratic support from the states Latino or Hispanic voters, contributed to Bidens vote gains in Arizona.
Georgia, a longtime deep red Republican state, has been inching toward battleground status due to its large and growing Democratic-leaning Black population. Yet its strong white Republican margins have led to GOP presidential wins since 1996. This year, those white Republican margins were reduced enough to make the state competitive.
Is Donald Trump Winning In The Presidential Polls
Recently, the 70-year-old Republican presidential nominee proudly proclaimed, Folks, were winning. Were winning. Were winning, in St. Augustine, Florida, after previously denouncing the press for refusing to report his victory in the polls. However, Trump conceded that I guess Im somewhat behind in the polls but not by much, in an interview he gave on Monday, October 24. The ABC News 2016 election tracking poll showed Clinton racing ahead of Trump by 12 pointsit was her highest, and his lowest ranking so far in the elections. The Trump campaign is struggling to stay on the path to the presidency after he blamed his impending failure on phony polls from the disgusting media.
Don’t Miss: How To Communicate With Donald Trump
Emboldened Unchanged Trump Looks To Re
The set of advisers around Trump now is a familiar mix of his top 2020 campaign aides and others who have moved in and out of his orbit over time. They include Miller, Susie Wiles, Bill Stepien, Justin Clark, Corey Lewandowski and Brad Parscale.
While his schedule isnt set yet, according to Trumps camp, his coming stops are likely to include efforts to help Ohio congressional candidate Max Miller, a former White House aide looking to win a primary against Rep. Anthony Gonzales, who voted to impeach Trump this year Jody Hice, who is trying to unseat fellow Republican Brad Raffensperger as Georgia secretary of state after Raffensperger defied Trump and validated the states electoral votes and Alabama Senate candidate Mo Brooks, according to Trumps camp.
Trumps ongoing influence with Republican voters helps explain why most GOP officeholders stick so closely to him. Republicans spared him a conviction in the Senate after the House impeached him for stoking the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, House GOP leaders have made it clear that they view his engagement as essential to their hopes of retaking the chamber, and Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., was deposed as Republican Conference Chair this year over her repeated rebukes of Trump.
Those numbers suggest that Trump could be in a strong position to win a Republican primary but lose the general election in 3½ years. A former Trump campaign operative made that case while discussing Trumps ambitions.
An Updating Tally Of How Often Every Member Of The House And The Senate Votes With Or Against The President
Trump margin: Trumps share of the vote in the 2016 election minus Clintons
Trump score: How often a member votes in line with Trumps position
Trump plus-minus: Difference between a members actual and predicted Trump-support scores
| Member | How often a member votes in line with Trumps positionTrump scoreHow often a member votes in line with Trumps position | Trumps share of the vote in the 2016 election minus ClintonsTrump marginTrumps share of the vote in the 2016 election minus Clintons | How often a member is expected to support Trump based on Trumps 2016 marginPredicted scoreHow often a member is expected to support Trump based on Trumps 2016 margin | Difference between a members actual and predicted Trump-support scoresTrump plus-minus |
|---|
A Trump score is not calculated for members who have not voted. How this works »
* No longer in Congress.
Trump margin: Trumps share of the vote in the 2016 election minus Clintons
Trump score: How often a member votes in line with Trumps position
Trump plus-minus: Difference between a members actual and predicted Trump-support scores
| Member |
|---|
Also Check: Mitch Mcconnell Democrat Or Republican
Stories Chosen For You
Speaking with MDSNBC host Ali Velshi on Saturday, former U.S. Attorney Barbara McQuade suggested that the Department of Justices case against Donald Trump for obstruction is growing by the day, making it much more likely investigators will be able to prove his guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.
Reacting to reports that the former president is suspected of still holding onto sensitive government documents that the DOJ is trying to get back, the attorney said the former president is increasing his legal peril with each passing day.
Why is he more worried about this and he seems to be about the other things that he is embroiled in? host Velshi prompted about the documents believed to contain sensitive intel information.
This one seems to be one that is really difficult to get out from under because hes caught red-handed, McQuade replied. In so many of these other cases, proof of a crime requires knowledge and intent. I think Donald Trump is savvy enough not to use email and so it could be very difficult to prove that level of knowledge and intent.
Read Also: Where Is President Trump In The Polls
Gop Voters Told To Hold Onto Mail Ballots Until Election Day
ATLANTA Republican activists who believe the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump have crafted a plan that, in their telling, will thwart cheating in this years midterm elections.
The strategy: Vote in person on Election Day or for voters who receive a mailed ballot hold onto it and hand it in at a polling place or election office on Nov. 8.
The plan is based on unfounded conspiracy theories that fraudsters will manipulate voting systems to rig results for Democrats once they have seen how many Republican votes have been returned early. There has been no evidence of any such widespread fraud.
If enough voters are dissuaded from casting ballots early, it could lead to long lines on Election Day and would push back processing of those late-arriving mailed ballots. Those ballots likely would not get counted until the next day or later.
EXPLAINER: Which states have abortion on the ballot?
Trump also has weighed in, saying at a recent rally that voting on Election Day was best because its much harder for them to cheat that way.
Read Also: What Do Republicans Believe About Climate Change
More: Trump Decries Desantis’ Move To Campaign For Colorado Senate Candidate Joe O’dea
At campaign events, he sometimes takes a tally. “How many of you are going to do a mail ballot?” he asks. “Early in person?” he adds. Silence turns into cheers when he asks about “Election Day.”
On Sunday in Bal Harbour, DeSantis pushed back on that preference, telling a packed Jewish community center to get to the polls as soon as possible to avoid a “mulligan” in two weeks.
“If you wait till Election Day, you get a flat tire, you can’t take a mulligan,” DeSantis said then. “Whereas if you vote early, you do it, you’re in the can. If something happens , you got another shot at it.”
“We can’t be complacent about this,” he added then.
Democrats, like DeSantis, have been recommending early voting. “I encourage you not to wait until Election Day,” Val Demings, the Senate nominee challenging Rubio, wrote on Twitter on Monday.
Voting Patterns In The 2020 Election
The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. The gender gap in the 2020 election was narrower than it had been in 2016 as Democrats made gains among men and Republicans made gains among women. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points . In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men while maintaining an 18-point lead among women. In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly , while Bidens advantage narrowed to 11 points among women .
Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clintons in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points . That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 . White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 , favored him in 2020 .
Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters, nearly the same as Clinton received in 2016 and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House received in 2018.
Party and ideology
Age and generation
Geography
Religion
White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin , while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group .
Recommended Reading: Will Trump Be President In 2021
The Brexit Vote And The Trump Vote: A Comparative Study Of The Common Trends And Factors That Led To A Populist Radical Right Vote In Britain And The United States
Laëtitia LangloisEnglishFrançais
The two symbols of Western liberal democracies Britain and the US became in 2016 hotbeds of radical right populism. The vote for Brexit and Donald Trumps election represent two spectacular populist victories and this article will highlight the strikingly similar dynamics at work in both elections. We will see that the two populist leaders, Nigel Farage in Britain and Donald Trump in the US, mobilised the same arguments and themes to connect to an audience which for years had nourished resentment and anger at the way traditional politicians had governed national politics in their respective countries. Thus, with the Brexit and Trump victories, fringe narratives became mainstream politics and upset the established political order. Nativism, racism and xenophobia, anti-establishment attitudes became the dominant themes of the political debate. It is important to understand how two major Western democracies surrendered to the populist calls and this article tries to provide an analysis on this populist phenomenon in Britain and the US.
The temporary alliance between the elite and the mob rested largely on this genuine delight with which the former watched the latter destroy respectability.
Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism
- 1 Francis Fukuyama, Identity, Contemporary Identity Politics and the Struggle for Recognition: The De
- 2 Gideon Rachman, Donald Trump and Brexit are no longer identical twins, Financial Times, January 8
Expecting Blind Loyalty From Attorney General
Donald Trump admits that he would not have chosen Jeff Sessions for his attorney general if he had known Sessions would recuse himself from the Russia investigation – raising ethics suspicions that Trump views the attorney general as his personal lawyer to stomp investigations into his alleged corruption. Sessions has since stated that Trump is “damn fortunate” that he recused himself.
Don’t Miss: Who Were The 7 Republicans Who Voted To Impeach
The Trump Supporters Who Changed Their Minds: Id Rather Vote For A Tuna Fish Sandwich
Frustrated, some Republicans have become anti-Trumpers: This guy couldnt lead his way out of a wet frickin paper bag
The anti-Trumpers are at it again only this time, theyre Republicans.
Kevin, a lifelong Republican voter and pastor from Arizona, says he voted for Trump in 2016 with high hopes for the future. He knew that Trump didnt have the same political experience as the other contenders, but he was optimistic he could grow into his new role.
Now he says: Ive seen how he has tried to divide our country and that is not something I want, nor what our country should have This man is an absolute danger to our country.
Kevins experience of voting for Trump and then quickly realizing hed made a mistake is one of many being used by Republican Voters Against Trump , which wants to boot Trump out of office later this year. The group is seeking testimony from former Trump voters through its website, which displays the best quotes so far with pride.
Kevin is a pastor from AZ who voted Trump in 2016 here is his case against four more years:And when you put all that together, I think this is a man who must, must be removed by voters in November from governing our country.
Republican Voters Against Trump
Sarah Longwell, a Republican consultant who co-founded RVAT, said they have received hundreds of testimonies in recent months.
This guy couldnt lead his way out of a wet frickin paper bag, says Farmer.
