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Has Trump Improved The Economy

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A Failure To Prevent Layoffs Of State And Local Workers

The Economy, Stocks & World on Tilt || Russia, Inflation & Power Struggles

In the weeks following the coronavirus outbreak, it became clear to state governments that they would have to increase spending to unanticipated levels. Yet a lack of aid from the federal government forced states and localities, who have much stricter budget requirements than the federal government, to cut payrolls for more than 1 million employees, representing a 5.2 percent drop in the total nonfederal government employment level. Without strong guidelines from the White House, states were forced to fend for themselves, often bidding against one another to provide their frontline health care workers with protective gear. This, coupled with the drop in state and local tax revenue, has led to budget crises across the country that could result in significantly deeper layoffs over the coming months. A recent survey by the National League of Cities illustrates the true scale of this problem, finding that more than 98 percent of cities with populations between 50,000 and 500,000 have reported an anticipated revenue shortfall this year.

Consequences If Aca Repealed

President Trump and Republicans in Congress tried repeatedly to repeal or replace the ACA, without success. In February 2018, 20 states, led by Texas Attorney GeneralKen Paxton and Wisconsin Attorney GeneralBrad Schimel, filed a lawsuit against the federal government alleging the ACA is now unconstitutional because the individual mandate tax which NFIB v. Sebelius rested on was repealed by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.

Writing in the Washington Post in September 2020, Catherine Rampell summarized some of the adverse consequences if the ACA is overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court:

  • 50+ million non-elderly adults with pre-existing conditions could be declined health insurance, or be charged more by insurance companies
  • 12+ million low-income persons would become ineligible for Medicaid, thereby losing insurance
  • 9+ million persons receiving tax credits to reduce insurance premiums on the exchanges would either pay more or lose coverage
  • Minimum essential coverage for prescription benefits and substance abuse treatment would no longer be required in insurance policies
  • Children would no longer be able to stay on their parentsâ plans until age 26
  • Preventive care would again involve cost-sharing
  • More Americans would have healthcare plans without comprehensive protection
  • Insurance companies would again be able to impose lifetime limits.

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Cbo Scoring Of The 2018 Budget

A budget document is a statement of goals and priorities, but requires separate legislation to achieve them. As of January 2018, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was the primary legislation passed that moved the budget closer to the priorities set by Trump.

Trump released his first budget, for FY2018, on May 23, 2017. It proposed unprecedented spending reductions across most of the federal government, totaling $4.5 trillion over ten years, including a 33% cut for the State Department, 31% for the EPA, 21% each for the Agriculture Department and Labor Department, and 18% for the Department of Health and Human Services, with single-digit increases for the Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Homeland Security and the Defense Department. The Republican-controlled Congress promptly rejected the proposal. Instead, Congress pursued an alternative FY2018 budget linked to their tax reform agenda this budget was adopted in late 2017, after the 2018 fiscal year had begun. The budget agreement included a resolution specifically providing for $1.5 trillion in new budget deficits over ten years to accommodate the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that would be enacted weeks later.

The Congressional Budget Office reported its evaluation of President Trump’s FY2018 budget on July 13, 2017, including its effects over the 2018â2027 period.

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Coronavirus And Cares Act Impact On Deficit

The CBO forecast in April 2020 that the budget deficit in fiscal year 2020 would be $3.7 trillion , versus the January estimate of $1 trillion . The COVID-19 pandemic in the United States impacted the economy significantly beginning in March 2020, as businesses were shut-down and furloughed or fired personnel. About 20 million persons filed for unemployment insurance in the four weeks ending April 11. It caused the number of unemployed persons to increase significantly, which is expected to reduce tax revenues while increasing automatic stabilizer spending for unemployment insurance and nutritional support. As a result of the adverse economic impact, both state and federal budget deficits will dramatically increase, even before considering any new legislation.


CBO provided a preliminary score for the CARES Act on April 16, 2020, estimating that it would increase federal deficits by about $1.8 trillion over the 2020â2030 period. The estimate includes:

  • A $988 billion increase in mandatory outlays
  • A $446 billion decrease in revenues and
  • A $326 billion increase in discretionary outlays, stemming from emergency supplemental appropriations.

The Stock Boom Is Real And Great For Globalist Elites

Did the economy start to improve under Obama before Trump took office ...

The biggest exception to the case for continuity here is probably the stock market.

Its true that shares soared on Obamas watch, but thats in part because he took over in the aftermath of a gigantic crash. Trump won the election at a time when stock market valuations were already high, and watched markets soar during the lame-duck months theyve only gone up since then. This market euphoria really is different from what we saw prior to 2017, and it may suggest something significant.

Exactly what that might be isnt entirely clear. The 2017 stock market boom was a fully global phenomenon. It was actually Argentina whose exchange posted the highest gains, and the US stock market has slightly underperformed Japans Nikkei 225 index since Trumps inauguration. The Hong Kong stock exchange is at an all-time high, as are the major indexes of India, South Korea, Germany, and a range of other countries.

Meanwhile, Robert Shiller, the Yale economist whos spent a lifetime studying asset price bubbles, reports that American shares are the most expensive in the world relative to underlying corporate earnings. That could mean our stock market is massively overvalued, or it could reflect expectations that a pro-business regime in Washington is going to find a way to tilt the playing field even more strongly in favor of shareholders over workers and consumers.


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Deficits Arent All Created Equal

The USCBC studys methods dont add up in other ways. This kind of trade analysis cant distinguish between the employment impact of nineteenth-century U.S. deficits and contemporary deficits. This matters because the two are categorically different. In the nineteenth century when the United States suffered from capital scarcity, foreign capital inflows boosted U.S. investment. But in the capital-saturated United States of today, excess foreign capital inflows and the deficits they trigger end up reducing savings, not boosting investment.

This difference is hugely important. Basic accounting identities teach that net capital inflows must by definition result in either higher investment or lower savings. Because American trade deficits that result in higher investment cannot possibly have the same impact as American trade deficits that repress savings, there are serious problems with a methodology that cannot distinguish between the two.

To sum up, deficits can be either positive or negative for growth and unemployment depending on the underlying macroeconomic conditions. A research methodology that fails to notice or account for this is likely to miss the big picture.


Federal Corporate Income Tax Receipts

During the six months following enactment of the Trump tax cut, year-on-year corporate profits increased 6.4%, while corporate income tax receipts declined 45.2%. This was the sharpest semiannual decline since records began in 1948, with the sole exception of a 57.0% decline during the Great Recession when corporate profits fell 47.3%.

Federal corporate income tax receipts fell from about $297 billion in fiscal year 2017 to $205 billion in fiscal year 2018, nearly one-third. This revenue decline occurred despite a growing economy and corporate profits, which ordinarily would cause tax receipts to increase. Corporate tax receipts fell from 1.5% GDP in 2017 to 1.0% GDP in 2018. The pre-Great Recession historical average was 1.8% GDP.

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Federal Budget Shutdown Of 20182019

On December 22, 2018, the federal government went into a partial shutdown caused by the expiration of funding for nine executive departments. The lapse in funding occurred after Trump demanded that the appropriations bill include funding for a U.S.-Mexico border wall. The shutdown ended on January 25, 2019, with the total shutdown period extending over a month, the longest in American history. By mid-January 2019, the White House Council of Economic Advisors estimated that each week of the shutdown reduced GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points, the equivalent of 1.2 points per quarter. About 380,000 federal employees were furloughed, some public services were shut down, and an additional 420,000 employees for the affected agencies were expected to work with their pay delayed until the end of the shutdown, totaling 800,000 workers affected out of 2.1 million civilian non-postal federal employees.

A January 2019 Congressional Budget Office report estimated that the 35-day partial government shutdown cost the American economy at least $11 billion, including $3 billion in permanent losses the CBO estimate excluded indirect costs that were difficult to quantify. The shutdown had an adverse effect on the budgets of state and local governments, as states covered some federal services during the shutdown.


Trumps International Economic Legacy

Has Trump improved the lives of blue-collar workers?

If Donald Trump loses the United States presidential election in November, he will ultimately be seen to have left little mark in many areas. But in t

Publishing date
03 May 2021

This opinion post was originally published in Project Syndicate.

It would be foolish to start celebrating the end of US President Donald Trumps administration, but it is not too soon to ponder the impact he will have left on the international economic system if his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, wins Novembers election. In some areas, a one-term Trump presidency would most likely leave an insignificant mark, which Biden could easily erase. But in several others, the last four years may well come to be seen as a watershed. Moreover, the long shadow of Trumps international behaviour will weigh on his eventual successor.

In some areas, a one-term Trump presidency would most likely leave an insignificant mark

On climate change, Trumps dismal legacy would be quickly wiped out. Biden has pledged to rejoin the 2015 Paris climate agreement on day one of his administration, achieve climate neutrality by 2050, and lead a global coalition against the climate threat. If this happens, Trumps noisy denial of scientific evidence will be remembered as a minor blip.

In a surprisingly large number of domains, Trump has done little or has behaved too erratically to leave an imprint

In US-China relations, it is not clear whether Trump merely precipitated a rupture that was already in the making

Theme

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The American Economy Is Growing

Donald Trump has spoken of his desire to turbo-charge the US economy to a growth rate of as high as 6%.

The latest figures, released by the US Department of Commerce in December, show that it grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter of 2017.

However, after the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, raised interest rates for the third time in 2017 in December, it is possible growth will slow in the coming months.

Fair And Reciprocal Trade

Secured historic trade deals to defend American workers.

Took strong actions to confront unfair trade practices and put America First.


  • Imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions worth of Chinese goods to protect American jobs and stop Chinas abuses under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.
  • Directed an all-of-government effort to halt and punish efforts by the Communist Party of China to steal and profit from American innovations and intellectual property.
  • Imposed tariffs on foreign aluminum and foreign steel to protect our vital industries and support our national security.
  • Approved tariffs on $1.8 billion in imports of washing machines and $8.5 billion in imports of solar panels.
  • Blocked illegal timber imports from Peru.
  • Took action against France for its digital services tax that unfairly targets American technology companies.
  • Launched investigations into digital services taxes that have been proposed or adopted by 10 other countries.

Historic support for American farmers.

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Trumps Economic Scorecard: 3 Years In Office

President Trumps Economic Scorecard

Nick Desantis

President Trump has been in office for three years, which is enough time to analyze how the economy is doing vs. his statements on how it would perform. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate for 2019s fourth quarter GDP growth and for the full year. For the fourth quarter GDP growth came in at 2.1%, which was the same as the September quarter and for the full year it fell from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.3% last year.


It appears that the tax cuts that started in 2018 helped for one year but dont have much of a carryover effect. The promise that they would pay for themselves has not materialized as the Federal budget deficit has ballooned to $1 trillion levels not seen in a non-recessionary environment.

The outlook for a slower economy caused the Fed to lower interest rates and increase its balance sheet, which led to the stock markets rallying in 2019 even when corporate profits were essentially flat. While the Phase One trade deal has been signed with China, its outlook was murky even before the Wuhan coronavirus hit. Its goals looked to be overly ambitious and didnt tackle the really tough items on the agenda.

Yearly GDP growth

GDP growth hasnt reached Trumps 3% or higher goal

Unemployment rate


Unemployment rate is about as low as it can go

Yearly job growth

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Free And Fair Trade Deals

Financial Times: Two

Trump has often stressed his America First trade stance including the levying of billions of dollars of tit-for-tat tariffs with China which he said had gained an unfair advantage over the US. The president insists his policies have pressured multinationals to bring jobs back home and forced other nations to open their restricted markets to US firms. The tax cuts provided further encouragement, he said.

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Tariffs on China havent done much for the manufacturing sector, but have undercut farm income, Prakken told DW, adding that there hasnt been a notable shift in direct foreign investment coming into the US from Trumps policies, while thousands of American farmers went out of business when Beijing restricted US agricultural imports.

In July, NAFTA 2.0 an update of the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico came into force. But despite promises that it would bring 180,000 new US jobs, the trade deal has no provision to stop work being outsourced to low-cost Mexico. Car manufacturers have continued to relocate their US plants across the border.

Election research shows that economic development just before the election can be decisive, says Prakken. Most models of the economys impact on US presidential elections stress the role of unemployment and income growth 6-9 months before the election.

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The Economy Remains In A Massive Hole

Seven months into the crisis, COVID-19 and the Trump Administrations failure to control it continue to constrain the recovery. While the economy, with the help of the CARES Act, has made critical progress since Spring 2020, output and employment are still extremely depressed relative to their levels before the pandemic. And with labor market gains slowing and economic hardship on the rise, a brutally uneven and needlessly slow recovery will be all but guaranteed unless more fiscal support is delivered immediately.

Actions To Hinder Implementation Of Aca

President Trump continued Republican attacks on the ACA while in office, according to the New York Times, including steps such as:

  • Weakening the individual mandate through his first executive order, which resulted in limiting enforcement of mandate penalties by the IRS. For example, tax returns without indications of health insurance will still be processed, overriding instructions from the Obama administration to the IRS to reject them.
  • Reducing funding for advertising for the 2017 and 2018 exchange enrollment periods by up to 90%, with other reductions to support resources used to answer questions and help people sign-up for coverage. This action could reduce ACA enrollment.
  • Cutting the enrollment period for 2018 by half, to 45 days. The NYT editorial board referred to this as part of a concerted “sabotage” effort.
  • Issuing public statements that the exchanges are unstable or in a death spiral. CBO reported in May 2017 that the exchanges would remain stable under current law , but would be less stable if the AHCA were passed.

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Even Before The Pandemic Trump Failed To Unleash An Economic Miracle

President Trumps failure to save the economy from the coronavirus is consistent with his record of failure before the pandemic. Upon inheriting a growing economy with low and falling unemployment from the Obama Administration, President Trumps first order of business was to squander $2 trillion on a taxgiveaway that showered unnecessary benefits on corporations and the wealthy with little to show for it. Like his tax scam, progress on the Presidents other major promises to eliminate the trade deficit that China would pay for the costs of his tariffs that manufacturing would boom everyone would have health insurance not only failed to materialize, but in many cases moved in the wrong direction. The share of Americans uninsured has grown every yearhe has been in office, for instance, reversing six consecutive years of insurance gains prior to his presidency. Rather than put his economic inheritance to good use, President Trump failed to meaningfully change the economys trajectory or achieve his major economic goals before running the economy further into the ground with his mismanagement of COVID-19.

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